Markets mixed on mediocre retail sales

Dow was up 16, advancers over decliners by 20% & NAZ gained 6. Banks are pretty much flat.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 195.80

Change 0.03

% Change 0.0%

MLPs are resting coming off their best year in history. Their index is off small change, still in the 287s & up 111 YTD. REITs are strong, the Dow Jones REIT Index is up 2+ to another yearly high. Junk bond funds are drifting at their yearly highs. But Treasuries sold off, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 6 basis points to 3.81%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks









Commodities are modestly up, trading will probably be listless during this slow week. Oil jumped above $79, the highest level in almost 2 months as an extended cold snap triggered buying. Gold is still trying to find a base.

CLG10.NYM

...Crude Oil Feb 10

...78.75

... 0.70 .......(0.9%)

GCZ09.CMX

...Gold Dec 09

...1,105.70

... 1.60 .......(0.1%)

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photo: Yahoo

photo: Bloomberg


Holiday shopping was good enough to give merchants some reason for cheer. Retailers managed to avoid a repeat of last year's disaster despite tight credit & double-digit unemployment. Retail sales rose 3.6% from Nov 1-Dec 24, compared with a 2.3% drop last year. However, adjusting for an extra shopping day between Thanksgiving & Christmas, the number was closer to a 1% gain. The last week surge surge was fairly "good." Online sales were a particular hot spot, up 15½% aided by a big increase the weekend before Christmas. However, they make up less than 10% of total retail sales.

•U.S. Holiday Retail-Sales Increase of 3.6% Exceeds Forecasts on Extra Day


The Bank of Israel raised the interest rate to 1¼%, the third time since the global economy began to recover. Their growth has accelerated & inflation exceeded the gov target range. Norway has also had an increase in interest. These actions are monitored by the Federal Reserve.

•Bank of Israel Raises Benchmark Rate for Third Time as Growth Accelerates

Bank of Israel Interest rate - 1 year





Retail holiday sales were the big news item & they came in fairly decent, but below the numbers in the best years. This is a story repeated during the year, beating lowered estimates is all that is required. Stocks are at yearly highs following one of the best years in history. The rest of the shortened week is difficult to predict with year end adjustments by money managers. But on the margin, following winds should be a help.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 week