Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stocks slip on last day of 2009

Dow fell 30, advancers ahead of decliners by 15% & NAZ is off 3. The Financial Index is weak & can't get out out of the 190-195 rut it has been stuck in for weeks. Banks have not been leading the recent rally.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
195.12
Change
0.62
% Change
0.3%


High yielders have been giving a little of their gains back this week. The Alerian MLP Index is down fractionally while the REIT index is up fractionally. But the MLP index is completing its best year in history, still up an amazing 109 YTD. Junk bond funds are a little soft, very near their yearly highs (with lowest yields). The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond is up again to 3.89%, very troubling going into the new year with many more Treasury auctions.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks







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Oil & gas & quiet as with stocks. But oil has a bullish undertone while gold has to find its footing.

CLG10.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 10...79.44 ...Up 0.16
.......(0.2%)


GCF10.CMX...Gold Jan 10...1,100.50...Up 9.00
.......(0.8%)



New jobless claims have dropped steadily since Sep, raising hopes that the unemployment rate could decline which would give households more money to spend & add fuel to the broader economic rebound. New claims for unemployment fell 22K to 432K, the lowest in 18 months. The 4-week average fell for the 17th straight week to 460K, again the lowest in 18 months. However, weekly data could be artificially low due to seasonal factors, such as the Christmas holiday & recent snowstorms. The number of jobless workers continuing to claim benefits dropped 57K to 4.9M also better than expected.

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Decline to Lowest Level Since July 2008


Continuing Claims - 1 year





Markets did not react to the favorable unemployment data, probably because so many are away. With exceptionally light volume any buying or selling could have a big impact on today's changes. This has been a stellar year which few predicted. I'm still putting my thoughts together but find it difficult to believe anything like the enormous gain in 2009 will be repeated in 2010.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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