Monday, November 15, 2010

Higher markets on calls for an end to QE2

Stocks are recovering lost ground from last week.  Dow is up 50, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 (not a convincing sign for today's rally) while NAZ is up only 2.  Banks are leading the rally bringing the Financial Index further above the 200 support line.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 203.26 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   2.29  (1.1%)



The Alerian MLP Index bounced back 3 to the 262s after last week's minor setback, taking it within 1% of the record highs set last week.  The REIT index also rebounded, up 1 to the 219s.  Junk bond funds were little changed, at or near 2 year highs.  The big news is the dramatic rise in Treasury yields at a time when the Federal Reserve just started buying Treasuries to help the economy.  Treasuries fell for a 3rd day after a group, including former Rep gov officials & economists, urged the Federal Reserve to halt purchases of gov bonds because it may risk a surge in inflation.  10-year bond yields reached the highest in 3 months as the yield shot up 10 basis points today & is up a startling 35 basis points in less than 2 weeks (shown in the chart below).  The yield on the 2 year Treasuries is up almost 20 basis points from its record lows just last month!

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.12%
U.S. 2-year
0.52%
U.S. 10-year
2.85%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Commodities are higher but these are not significant moves.  Gold is near its 2 year highs made last week while gold is not far of the 1400+ records just set.


CLZ10.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 10...85.25 ...Up 0.42  (0.5%)

GCX10.CMX...Gold Nov 10....1,368.30 ...Up 2.90  (0.2%)

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here



US retail sales grew sharply in Oct, the 4th straight monthly gain.  Consumers flocked to auto showrooms & made more purchases online.  Retail sales jumped 1.2%, the largest increase since Mar according to the Commerce Dept.  Excluding motor vehicles, however, retail sales rose a more modest 0.4%.  Sales between Aug-Oct have grown 6.3% compared to the same period last year.  The increase reflects a gradually improving economy after a spring lull.  The biggest increase occurred in the auto segment, as sales of vehicles & parts leaped 5%, expected in light of previously reported auto sales.  Sales at building-supply stores, meanwhile, scored a 1.9% increase.  Sales at non-store retailers such as catalogs & online retailers and at stores catering to leisure-time activities, such as reading & music, posted a 1.0% increase.  Several retail sectors, however, did not draw as many shoppers. Sales at department stores, furniture & home stores, & electronic & appliance stores all fell 0.7% compared to the prior month.

Retail Sales in U.S. Rose 1.2% in October, Most in Seven Months











Source:  MarketWatch


Caterpillar Agrees to Buy Bucyrus for $7.6 Billion  

Photo:  Bloomberg

Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock & the world's largest construction & mining equipment maker, will buy Bucyrus Intl, maker of surface mining equipment used for mining raw commodities, for $7.6B.  CAT will pay $92 per share, the deal is expected to close in mid-2011.  BUCY jumped 29% to $89.59.  "Our performance through the global economic turmoil of 2008-2009 allowed us to emerge with a strong balance sheet and the ability to make strategic investments in companies like Bucyrus," said CAT CEO Doug Oberhelman.  CAT said last month it expects the global economy to grow by about 3.5% next year but the company predicts developing regions will grow at double that rate. Even in the emerging economies where growth is slower, CAT said the replacement of worn out machinery will drive sales before those economies markedly improve.  Cat was up 1.72 & has had an impressive rise off its lows in the 20s at the bottom of the stock market 2 years ago.

Caterpillar Buys Bucyrus for $7.6 Billion to Grow Mining Range

Bucyrus   ---   6 months



Caterpillar   ---   2 years





Leaders of the world’s biggest economies ended 4 days of talks at the G-20 without taking decisive measures to address the global imbalances that have fueled asset bubbles & risk leading to a protectionist backlash.  Asia-Pacific leaders in Japan pledged to take “concrete steps” toward creating a regional free-trade agreement without setting a target for achieving that goal. Their meeting “opposed protectionist trade actions” while failing to agree on a remedy for trade & investment distortions.  China indicated no change in the country’s currency trade policies adding pressure for quick reforms.  Confusion over what to do next to aid different global economies can weigh on markets.  The rapid rise in Treasury yields has disturbing implications for the stock markets.  Apple (AAPL) has paused after reaching new record highs with its earnings & new product announcements last month.  It has been a market leader since the market lows & stalling out is not what the bulls want to see.


Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks






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