Friday, November 19, 2010

Markets slip as China forces banks to raise reserves

Enthusiasm over the General Motors (GM) IPO is gone as markets hit the skids again.  China moved to curb inflation telling banks they must hold more reserves, a move to cut down on lending to avoid speculative bubbles & curb inflation.  Dow fell 21, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ is off 5.  As markets leaders, bank stock prices pulled back stuck in their sideways trading zone.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 198.43 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -1.35  (-0.7%)



The MLP index was flat at 356 while the REIT dropped 1.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries were also mixed with the yield on the 10 year Treasury holding at 2.90%.


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.50%
U.S. 10-year
2.90%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil declined, heading for its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, following China’s decision to raise bank reserve ratios.  Gold also slipped but is not far from recent record highs over 1400.

CLZ10.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 10...80.88 ...Down 0.98  (1.2%)

GCX10.CMX...Gold Nov 10....1,344.50 ....Down 8.40  (0.6%)


Gold Super Cycle Link!  


Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman, hit back at critics of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program & issued a thinly veiled attack on China's policy of keeping its currency on a leash.  Bernanke said a more vigorous US economy was essential to fuel the global recovery & dismissed charges he was debasing the dollar.  "The best way to continue to deliver the strong economic fundamentals that underpin the value of the dollar, as well as to support the global recovery, is through policies that lead to a resumption of robust growth in a context of price stability in the United States," Bernanke said in a speech to a conference at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.  FED defended the program this week.  "Deficits and surpluses are generated by many countries' behavior not a single currency," Bernanke said later.  "It will be very difficult for exchange rates by themselves to restore the balance and so I think structural adjustments on both sides are necessary," he added.  Addressing intl criticism of the FED's action, Bernanke said much of the recent weakness of the dollar reflected an unwinding of the increases that were notched as investors fled to the safety of the greenback during the European sovereign debt crisis in the spring.  This is boiling down to the US versus the rest the world, not good.


Heinz Profit Beats Analysts Projections


Photo:  Bloomberg


H.J. Heinz (HNZ) posted weaker-than-expected quarterly sales, saying US consumers remain frugal. Yet the company, which also makes Ore-Ida frozen potatoes & Smart Ones frozen entrees, topped profit expectations, helped by growth in emerging markets, & raised the target for how much free cash it expects to generate this fiscal year.  "U.S. consumers are in a funk," said CEO William Johnson, noting that use of coupons is up 5% this year.  Heinz expects sales from foodservice customers, including restaurants, to improve in its FY H2, which began Oct 28, & to be about flat with a year earlier.  EPS in its Q2, ended Oct 27, was 78¢, up from 73¢ last year & beat expectations of 76¢.  But sales dropped 1.2% to $2.61B, hurt by the impact of foreign exchange rates.  Sales volume (unit sales) increased 0.3%, driven by 2.6% growth in emerging markets. Price increases lifted sales 0.6%.  Heinz said it is still on track to deliver FY2011 growth of 3-4% in sales & 7-10% in EPS. However, it raised its free cash flow target 15% to $1.15B.  The stock fell 57¢ but has had a nice ride up from its lows 2 years ago.

Heinz Profit Beats Analysts' Projections on Emerging Markets

Heinz   ---   2 years




In its 2nd day of trading, General Motors (GM) continues to lose ground, giving new stockholders a minimal gain.  This performance demonstrates stock markets are not in good shape.

General Motors Gains in NYSE Return After IPO Raises $20 Billion

General Motors   ---   2 days





Following yesterday's rally, stocks are still slightly lower this week.  The HNZ story is representative for many of the multi-nationals, US business slogs along while foreign business (especially in eastern Asia region) is doing well.  The is the kind of news that is not encouraging for reducing unemployment in the US.  Meanwhile a bill to continue the tax cuts into next year is caught up in polities, going nowhere.  This uncertainty is also preventing companies from hiring.  The rise in Treasury yields is very disturbing & could be a major stumbling block going forward.   

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks






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