Friday, November 5, 2010

Markets muddle along despite encouraging jobs data

Stocks were under pressure all day.  The jobs report should have given a lift to the markets but a stronger dollar had a greater impact.  The € fell almost 2¢ to just above $1.40 but is still far above the sub $1.20 level back in May.  Dow gained 9 thanks to buying at the close, advancers marginally ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 1.  The declines would have been greater if bank stocks had not had an excellent day.  The Financial Index is up 10% since early Sep & up 13 already in Nov.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value 209.41 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change    4.35  (2.1%)



The Alerian MLP Index surged another 3+ to go over 360, a fresh record high.  REITs were also strong taking the index up 2¼ to 230+, a 2 year high & approaching the 300+ record levels 3 years ago.  Junk bond funds were mixed at their lofty levels.  Treasuries were weaker on the strong dollar & profit taking after recent gains. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 5 basis points to 2.53%.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.12%
U.S. 2-year
0.36%
U.S. 10-year
2.53%


Alerian MLP Index   ---    YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---    YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---    YTD




Oil is doing well at its 2 year highs while gold is soaring.  Yesterday's impressive gains for gold were followed by another excellent day with 1400 no longer just a dream.

CLZ10.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 10...86.89 .....Up 0.40 (0.5%)

GCX10.CMX...Gold Nov 10.....1,394.60 ...Up 11.90  (0.9%)

$$$Gold Super Cycle$$$  



Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell 1.8% in September

Photo:  Bloomberg


The number of people who signed contracts to buy homes fell in Sep after 2 months of gains, a possible fallout from foreclosure moratoriums which have disrupted activity in the housing market.  The National Association of Realtors said that its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes dropped 1.8% in Sep to a reading of 80.9 as contract signings fell in every region of the country except the West.  The setback highlighted the continued problems facing the housing industry as it struggles to mount a sustained recovery from a deep recession.  Some of the weakness probably reflected disruptions in the housing market caused by moratoriums imposed by banks on mortgage foreclosures. Banks halted tens of thousands of foreclosures as they investigated allegations that some foreclosures had involved flawed legal documents.  Some say there is pent up demand for housing while others believe that housing is still bumping along the bottom following a severe economic downturn.  Either way, the road ahead does not look good.

 Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell 1.8% in September


Index of pending home sales

One-Year Chart for MoM % (USPHTMOM:IND)



Apple (AAPL), with the 2nd largest market cap in the world, rebounded in the last week taking it, pretty much, back to its record highs in the 319s.  The stock is up over 100 YTD (very few stocks are worth as much as 100) as if it doesn't have a care in the world.  Maybe, but I've heard that refrain before.  I keep an eye on tech products (despite the fact I use a basic netbook for this blog) & there seems like a boatload of competition for the iPad & iPhone are here or will be next year.  On the other hand, I didn't buy AAPL last year, so I missed the 100 point ride this year.


Apple   ---   YTD






Dismal unemployment data shows no sign of going away soon.  Last month the private sector created 159K jobs. At that rate, it would take over 4 years to bring back the jobs lost since the recession began.  If anything, that could be an optimistic projection.,  By comparison, it the economy added ½M jobs every month (difficult to imagine such activity), it would still take over a year to bring back all those jobs.  Then there is the underemployment problem, those accepting menial work to get buy or who have just given up looking.  They represent another 7% of the workforce.  Over 85% have regular jobs & are to some degree in good financial shape, but others are not which is a severe drag on the US economy. Dow smashed the 11.2K ceiling this week & the bulls want to push it higher. But the reality is that the US economy is still very soggy with unemployment & housing being the weakest parts. 


Dow Jones Industrials   ---    YTD





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