Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Dow vaults over 12,000 on easing European debt worries

Dow jumped 277 taking it above 12K, advancers ahead of decliners 9-1 & NAZ gained 71.  The Financial Index was up 5+ to 170, a very big gain by its standards.

The MLP index rose 3+ to the 378s & the REIT index shot up 6 to the 227s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries sold off with less demand for risk averse assets.  Oil & gold are participating in the rally by the stock markets.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.259%

U.S. 10-year

1.880%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...96.95 .......Up 3.07  (3.3%)

GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11....1,614.00 .....Up 19.60  (1.2%)





Get the latest market update below:








AT&T Pulls $39 Billion T-Mobile Bid

Photo:   Bloomberg

AT&T, a Dow stock, is dropping ts effort to buy T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom.  The planned $39B acquisition was the biggest deal announced this year.  The collapse of deal leaves the 2nd-largest US mobile carrier with few attractive strategic options as it seeks to challenge market leader Verizon Wireless (VZ).   AT&T, a Dividend Aristocrat, is up 20¢ & yields 6%.


T    AT&T


  • The framework for a single family home currently under construction is seen in Los Angeles, California October 18, 2011.   REUTERS/Fred Prouser
Photo:   Yahoo

Housing starts & permits for future construction jumped to a 1½ year high in Nov as demand for rental apartments rose.  The Commerce Dept said housing starts surged 9.3% to an annual rate of 685K units, the highest since Apr last year.  This was ahead of a 635K rate forecasted & is up 24.3% from last year.  Although the overall housing market remains weak, rising demand for rental apartments is boosting the construction of multifamily homes.  Falling house values & stringent lending practices by banks are pushing buyers away from home ownership.  A full recovery for the sector, which was one of the main triggers of the 2007-09 recession, remains far off in the future given a glut of unsold homes, weak prices, high unemployment and tight credit.  Housing starts are still less than a third of their 2.3M rate peak 6 years ago.  Last month, housing starts for the volatile multi-family homes segment surged 25.3% to a 238K-unit rate, & groundbreaking for projects with 5 or more units hit the highest level since Sep 2008.  Single-family home construction, accounting for a large portion of the market, rose 2.3% to a 447K unit pace.  New building permits unexpectedly increased 5.7% to a 681K unit pace.  Permits were pushed up by a 13.9% jump in the multi-family segment.  Permits for buildings with 5 or more units were the highest since Oct 2008 & permits to build single-family homes rose only 1.6%.  Good news, but single family housing accounts for the bulk of the business & that remains very weak.

Builders in U.S. Start Construction on Most Houses in 19 Months: Economy


German business confidence rose unexpectedly for a 2nd month in Dec as 2 economic institutes predicted Europe's biggest economy will avoid a recession in 2012.  The Ifo business climate index climbed to 107.2 from 106.6 in Nov, beating predictions of a drop to 106.  Strengthening business confidence, along with a report today showing consumer confidence will hold its gains next month, adds to evidence that the strength of Germany’s economy has protected it from the worst of the debt crisis.  Investor sentiment unexpectedly rose for the first time in 10 months in Dec & measures of manufacturing and services activity also increased.  This "good news" are responsible for some of today's rally in US stock markets.

German Business Confidence Rises as Nation Set to Avoid Recession: Economy


I'm not sure what all the excitement is about for today's big market rally.  The housing news is not that great since improvement comes from new apartments, not new single family housing.  Euphoria over the German economic news is because Germany is a big source of funds for bailout money.  But problems from the European debt mess have not gone away.  The politicos in DC are using Scotch-Tape to deal with extending lower Social Security taxes & unemployment benefits, which is a negative for solving enormous gov deficits that are now considered routine.  The Dow chart shows it continues to limp along near 12K.  Maybe this won't be a dull pre-holiday week of trading.

Dow Jones Industrial Average









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