Thursday, December 22, 2011

Higher markets on encouraging economic data

Dow rose 62 (closing near its highs), advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ rebounded 21.   Bank stocks found buyers, taking the Financial Index over 176.  However, it has been meandering around this level for more than 4 months.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value176.24One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change  3.54      (2.1%)

The MLP index inched up pennies to 381, needing another 9 to match its record set 8 months ago, & the REIT index jumped almost 3 to 232, far from its record levels set 4 years ago.  Junk bond funds had a good day, rising 1%, & Treasuries also traded higher.  Oil keeps getting nearer to the magic $100 level while gold pulled back $7, just above $1600.  

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.275%

U.S. 10-year

1.949%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...99.39 ...Up 0.72  (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Obama blames Republicans for upcoming tax increase

Photo:   Yahoo

The President chided House Reps by saying they are holding up an extension of expiring payroll tax cuts.  He said, the debate is "about the American people."  To make his point, Obama was flanked by people who said they would be stretched thin financially if Congress failed to extend the cuts before the end of the year.  If no deal is reached, the White House says a person making $50K a year would see a loss of about $40 per paycheck.  "Now there may be some folks in the House who refuse to vote for this compromise because they don't think 40 bucks is a lot of money," Obama said.  "But anyone who knows how to stretch a budget knows that at the end of the week or the end of the month, $40 can make all the difference in the world."  Obama reiterated his call for a 2-month extension of the payroll tax cuts, a measure already agreed to by an overwhelming majority of Senators from both parties.  He said the House GOP's refusal to sign on to the bipartisan deal was exactly why the American people have grown so frustrated with Washington.  "This is an issue where an overwhelming number of people in both parties agree," Obama said. "How can we not get that done? Has this place become so dysfunctional that even when people agree to things we can't do it? It doesn't make any sense.  Enough is enough."  House Reps say they oppose the 2-month deal because it doesn't provide the public & businesses enough certainty, they're calling on Obama & Senate Dems to negotiate a full-year extension instead.  This is getting ugly with a lot riding on the outcome.

Obama and Boehner Increase Pressure Over Tax Cut


Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti

Photo:   Bloomberg

Prime Minister Monti's emergency budget plan won final approval in Parliament as Italy struggles to tame surging borrowing costs before facing €53B ($69B) in debt repayments early next year.  The Senate approved the €30B-euro package dubbed by Monti as the “Save Italy Decree.”  The plan includes pension overhaul, a levy on primary residences & a crackdown on tax cheats, all measures aimed at convincing investors the gov is serious about cutting its debt & meet the commitment of balancing the budget in 2013.  But it may also push Italy, which must sell €440B in debt next year, deeper into a recession that is forecast to begin in the current qtr.  The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 6.92%, up 13 basis points from yesterday. The difference with equivalent-maturity German bonds climbed to 497.3 basis points (i.e. a whopping 5%).  “Our country’s credibility is essential to overcome the crisis, just as it’s also essential for our economy to return to growth,” Monti told Senators before the vote.  Another European drama that plays on.



  • <p>               Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos arrives for a cabinet meeting at the Greek Parliament in Athens, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011. Negotiations with banks for a massive Greek bond swap deal are "going well" and a framework agreement is expected in early January, officials in the country's coalition government said. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos
Photo:   Yahoo

Talks between Greece & its private creditors on cutting the country's massive debt load have made some progress, but disagreements remain on key parts of the deal.  Big banks & investment firms have been asked to forgive Greece 50% of its debts so that the country can concentrate on getting its economy back in shape & eventually raise money on financial markets.  Greece has been kept afloat by a €110B ($144B) bailout from the eurozone & IMF since May 2010 & has been promised an extra €130B in aid if investors agree to share part of the burden.  The idea is that by forgiving part of its debt, private creditors avoid the much bigger losses they would face in a tumultuous default.  The eurozone & bank representatives reached a tentative deal in late Oct, which would see Greece debt cut by €100B, discussions on the details of the agreement have dragged on.  The plan was to agree on the terms of a bond swap by the end of the year, so that private investors could exchange their old bonds for ones with a lower value in Jan or Feb, ahead of a €14.4B repayment deadline faced in Mar.  In recent days, the gov & private investors agreed on some structural aspects of the package, but are still divided on central financial questions, which will determine the level of losses private creditors have to accept.  Greek bailout remains far from a done deal.

Issues remain in Greek debt talks AP


Stocks have been taking glum news well, not selling off too much to recurring reports of fiscal & economic problems.  Today it hardly responded to fairly good news.  Even the downward revision for Q3 GDP is only history (but an upward revision of the same data would be called "good" by the bulls).  But European debt issues are still out there & the outcome of the tax extension bill remains uncertain (although politicos will make it happen one way or the other).  Dow finished below the magic 12.2K ceiling it has failed to crack thru for several months.  Tomorrow should be quiet, going into a low weekend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average




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