Thursday, December 29, 2011

Markets rise, but on low volume

Stocks began the day higher & never looked back.  Dow gained 135, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ rose 23.  The Financial Index was up nearly 3 to the 176s, but remains below its 189 highs reached in late Oct.,

The MLP index vaulted 3½ to the 389s, inches from setting a new record, while the REIT index gained 2 to 233.  Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries also inched higher, bringing lower yields.  Oil rose amid speculation that escalating tension in the Middle East may disrupt supplies.  Gold prices fell for the 6th straight day.  It has fallen almost 5% since Dec 20 & is down 11% this month (but remains up YTD).

ALERIAN MLP Index



DJ REIT INDEXDJR



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CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...99.64 ...Up 0.28  (0.3%)

Treasury yelds:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.263%

U.S. 10-year

1.901%


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Amazon Falls

Photo:   Bloomberg

Amazon may miss Q4 sales estimates, predicted by Goldman Sachs, citing slower-than-expected e-commerce growth.  Revenue is expected to to rise 38% from a year earlier to $17.9B, less the $18.2B expected.  This projection is based on data from ComScore, which found that total e-commerce sales rose 15% in the Nov-Dec holiday shopping season.  While AMZN historically outpaces the broader market by 23 percentage points, that still doesn’t get the company to the 40% growth forecasted.  Its bottom line also is suffering as the company steps up spending on fulfillment centers & it builds out Web services.  CEO Jeff Bezos said in Oct the company may post a loss in Q4.  Operating margin may narrow to 0.84% in the period, from 3.66% a year earlier.  But another analyst gave a more upbeat view on Q4 sales, saying that AMZN may beat estimates, boosted by sales of its new Kindle Fire tablet.  AMZN said earlier today that it sold “well over” 1M Kindles a week in Dec, thanks to record demand fueled by the Kindle Fire.  Take your pick, but I would bet with the first analyst.  After a choppy year, the stock fell 3 pennies in an up market.

Amazon May Fall Short of Quarterly Sales Estimates, Goldman Sachs Predicts

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)


stock chart


The € fell to a 15-month low against the dollar as Italian bond yields rose after the nation sold less than its maximum target at auction.  The  currency dropped to a decade low versus the ¥ as concern increased that the ECB will inject more cash into the financial system to avoid a credit crunch from the region’s debt crisis.  The ¥ & $ strengthened against most of their major counterparts as demand increased for safer assets.  The € was little changed at $1.29+ after falling to $1.28½, the weakest level since Sep 2010.   The shared currency is the worst performer among 10 developed-nation currencies this year, declining 1.7%.  The € today touched its lowest level since 2002 against the index.  The dollar has advanced 1.6% & the ¥ has gained 4.8%.  The European debt mess will be around well into next year.

Euro Falls to a 15-Month Low Versus Dollar on ECB Moves, Italy’s Auction


Walgreen, a Dividend Aristocrat, expects to lose almost 90% of prescriptions handled by pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts after it leaves Express Scripts' networks next week.  The break will hurt sales, earnings & cash flow during FY2012, although it did not specify the impact.  But it noted that Express Scripts processed 88M prescriptions filled by WAG in FY2011, about $5.3B of its $72B in total. Based on deals it has made with individual Express Scripts clients, WAG expects about keep about 10M of those prescriptions.  The company filled 26M prescriptions for Express Scripts over the first 4 months of the current fiscal year.  The stock was up 15¢.

Walgreen expects to lose most Express Scripts biz AP

Walgreen Co. (WAG)


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Markets had another good day with many traders away.  The only exciting event is the Alerian MLP Index getting sooo close to its record highs of 390 seen 8 months ago.  High yields are in demand, but higher prices for these securities bring down their yields.  The index is yielding 5.8%, nearing the record low of 5.37% reached in Jul 2007 at a prior index peak of 342.

Dow Industrials 


stock chart



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