Thursday, December 1, 2011

Markets waver on profit taking

Dow fell 34, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ slipped 1.  Bank stocks sold off after gains yesterday.  The Financial Index dropped 2 to 170, still fairly close to the yearly lows around 151.

The MLP index was up 1+ to just over 370, but REIT index fell 1+ to the 221s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries sold off again.  An intersting note is the 90 day bill has a slightly negative yield, an inidcation there is a lot of worried money out there.  Oil increased for a 5th day after a report showed manufacturing rose more than expected last month.  Gold was even & has had a nice move up this week.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.260%

U.S. 10-year

2.127%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.98 ...Up 0.62  (0.6%)

GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11......1,750.00 ...Up 4.50  (0.3%)

Get the latest market update below:



Job Seekers

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number applying for unemployment benefits rose for the 2nd straight week, a sign the hiring market is recovering at a slow & uneven pace.  Weekly applications for benefits rose 6K to 402K according to the Labor Dept.  Applications had been below 400K for 3 straight weeks.  The 4-week average was mostly unchanged at just below 400K.  The average fell to a 7-month low 2 weeks ago after applications had been declining for 2 months.  The number receiving benefits rose 35K to 3.74M. But that doesn't include several million more who are receiving extended benefits under an emergency program put in place during the recession.  All told, 7M received benefits in the latest week.  This is another sign the economy is not healing well.



Manufacturing in U.S.

Photo:   Bloomberg

US manufacturing probably grew in Nov at the fastest pace in 5 months, suggesting factories will keep supporting the economic expansion through the end of the year.  The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 51.8 from 50.8 in Oct based on forecast.  Fifty is the dividing line between growth & contraction.  Corp investment on new equipment, export demand, stronger consumer purchases during the holidays & leaner inventories lay the groundwork for a pickup in production.  However, the risk of recession in Europe may restrain manufacturing.  The news is not so good around the world.  In China & Europe, manufacturing contracted last month.  A purchasing managers’ index compiled by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing slid to 49 in Nov, the weakest since Feb 2009.  Separate reports showed slowing retail sales & an industrial slump in Australia, which relies on China as its biggest export customer.

Manufacturing in U.S. Probably Expanded at the Fastest Pace in Five Months


Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, said same store sales rose only 1.8% in Nov, short of estimates as the busy shopping weekend after Thanksgiving failed to give a big lift to revenue.  Analysts expected a 2.8% gain.  Sales were strongest on the day after Thanksgiving, known as "Black Friday" when the chain opened at midnight.  Total sales for the 4 weeks ended Nov 26 rose 3% to $6.19B. Food & beauty products were strong sellers but toy & movies declined.  The results are a sign consumers are still cautiously spending heading into the holiday shopping period.  TGT expects Dec revenue in stores open at least one year to rise in the low- to mid-single digits.  The stock was up 30¢ in what has been a sluggish year.

Target Sales Miss Expectations

TGT    Target Corp.




Following yesterday's enormous gains, everybody needs to take a breather.  The big gains should indicate that the debt messes will be fixed by the actions of the reserve banks.  However, life is more complicated.  European banks still have huge problems with their loan portfolios as do the big US banks.  Including yesterday, Dow managed a gain of 90 in Nov after a stellar Oct.  Dec should be interesting.

Dow Jones Industrial Average











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