Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Mixed markets on weaker than expected retail sales

Dow was up 42, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ was down 5.  Bank stocks inched higher with the Financial Index up pennies.

The MLP & REIT indices had only fractional changes.  Junk bond funds were even while Treasuries slipped.  The € dropped below $1.31, a 9 month low.  Oil surged above $100 on speculation supplies will be disrupted after a report that Iran will hold drills to close the Strait of Hormuz.  Gold gained for the 2nd time in 3 sessions as the lowest prices in 7 weeks spurred purchases.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.226%

U.S. 10-year

2.037%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.11 ...Up 2.34  (2.4%)

GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11......1,669.80 ...Up 5.60  (0.3%)


Get the latest market update below:



Retail Sales Less Than Forecast

Photo:  Bloomberg

Retail sales rose less than expected in Nov as a drop in receipts for food & beverages weighed against stronger sales of motor vehicles, tempering some of the expectations of a strong holiday shopping season.  Total retail sales increased 0.2% after rising by an upwardly revised 0.6% in Oct according to the Commerce Dept.  Forecasts were for retail sales to climb 0.6%.  Nov retail sales growth was the weakest since Jun. However, shoppers flocked to stores over the Thanksgiving weekend, traditionally retail's biggest sales period.  Strong sales reports for that weekend led some to predict a strong overall season, although there were warnings that the shopping frenzy may not carry thru the holidays due to the nation's high unemployment rate.  This report is disappointing given that all the evidence was pointing to fairly strong gains. 

Retail Sales in U.S. Climbed Less Than Forecast


Best Buy Profit Trails Estimates

Photo:   Bloomberg

Best Buy Q3 net income fell 29% as it cut prices in popular categories such as tablets & TVs to drive sales & traffic during the busy holiday season.  Adjusted earnings missed expectations.  "We took actions to provide value to customers and drive our business in this competitive consumer environment," said CEO Brian Dunn.  EPS fell to 42¢ from 54¢ last year.  Excluding one-time items, adjusted EPS was 47¢, below 52¢ expected.  Revenue rose 2% to $12.1B from $11.9B last year & was slightly below expectations of $12.13B.  Revenue in US stores open at least one year rose 1%, boosted by a 20% increase in online revenue.  Strong sellers during included mobile computing, appliances, e-readers, mobile phones & movies.  Digital imaging & gaming were weaker.  BBY reaffirmed full-year guidance of adjusted net income of $3.35-$3.65 near expectations of $3.44.  It expects revenue of $51-$52.5B.  The stock sank 3.06 (11%).

Best Buy Profit Trails Analysts’ Estimates

BBY    Best Buy




DuPont, a Dow stock, expects to beat earnings expectation next year, stressing that strong agricultural & chemical sales will offset weak shipments to electronic & housing customers.  Some electronics & polymer customers are cutting costs & drawing down inventories before replenishing supplies, CEO Ellen Kullman said.  Other units, particularly agriculture & nutrition, are performing well as a growing world population demands more food.  The company, which also makes Kevlar bulletproof fabric & pigments for paint, expects to earn $4.20-$4.40 next year.  Excluding a 17¢ per share expense for pensions, DD expects EPS of $4.37-$4.57, above estimates of $4.23.  "We are nurturing high-risk, high-return business models," Kullman said. "We positioned this company to emerge stronger from the recession. Our growth playbook is working."  The stock gained 31¢.


  • DD   E.I. DuPont de Nemours




    The Federal Reserve is having a meeting as I write, but nobody is paying attention.  There is no room to cut interest rates & another bond buying program is not expected.  As usual, the words of the statement will be cross-examined, but they will say nothing new.  Meanwhile the € keeps falling, reflecting the sluggish economies in Europe & their debt crisis.  Today's data about the economy could  have been more encouraging.  The chart below shows Dow's inability to crack thru the 12.2K ceiling, not what the bulls like to see.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average






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