Monday, January 9, 2012

Markets climb ahead of earnings season

Dow rose 32, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 2.  Bank stocks had a limited gain.  Not an exciting day.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index

Value181.49One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.91    (0.5%)

Surging prices for oil & natural gas shale are raising concerns of a bubble in valuations, which dragged down MLPs.  Their index fell 3+ to 391.  No complaints, unit holders are happy after reaching new highs last week.  REITs were lower & junk bond funds were mixed while Treasuries had a modest move up.  Oil & gold also pretty much traded sideways.

ALERIAN MLP Index



DJ REIT INDEXDJR



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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.256%

U.S. 10-year

1.956%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...101.27 ...Down 0.29  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Unemployment Falls to 8.5% as U.S. Adds 200K Jobs

Photo:   Bloomberg

Dec payroll growth in the US beat forecasts while the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in almost 3 years.  The 200K jobs increase followed a revised 100K gain in Nov that was smaller than first estimated.  The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 8.5%, while hours worked & earnings climbed.  The unemployment rate was forecast to climb to 8.7% from a previously reported 8.6% in Nov (revised to 8.7%).  Private hiring rose 212K after a revised gain of 120K in Nov.  Sustained hiring is needed to support household spending that accounts for about 70% of the economy.  Retail trade payrolls climbed 28K as companies kept hiring for the holiday season.  Gains in consumer confidence & manufacturing suggest the US is withstanding the European economic crisis.  The president said the jobs report shows the economy is healing & appealed to Congress to extend a payroll-tax cut thru the rest of the year to assure growth continues.   Good news did not bring out buyers for stocks, not good.

U.S. Payrolls Beat Forecasts; Unemployment Falls\


Consumer Credit in U.S. Surged in November

Photo:   Bloomberg

Consumer borrowing increased in Nov by the largest amount in a decade.  They took out more loans to buy cars & charged more on credit cards to purchase holiday gifts, a sign of their growing confidence in the economy.  The Federal Reserve said total consumer borrowing rose $20.4B, the largest monthly increase since a $28B gain in Nov 2001.  The category which measures credit card debt rose $5.6B, the most since Mar 2008.  Another category that tracks auto loans increased $14.8B, close to a $14.1B jump in Jul, which was the biggest increase since Feb 2005.  



The International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is here again.  Here are a few themes to watch for according to the NY Times.  The Ultrabook has arrived.  3 years ago, the biggest theme was, "Are we all going to go out of business?" followed by netbooks, small & inexpensive portable computers (I'm using one to write this article).  The following year, was the year of the tablet.  This year we may hear less about tablets.  Now PC makers will show off their own ideas about what a full-powered, superthin laptop called "ultraboook."  One problem, expect prices around $1K.  OK!  Expect gadgets telling us to eat less & exercise more.  There will be growth of wearable sensors.


  • The has been a fair amount of favorable economic news this year but that has not attracted stock buyers.  Instead there is nervousness in the markets, not sure how to measure that.  The bigger jobs report today should have been worth 200 on the Dow.  Instead it had a meager gain.  Iran & its potential to interrupt energy supplies from the countries on the Persian Gulf may cause the EU to move forward forward its meeting one week to Jan 23 (Chinese New Year).  Besides the debt mess, it will address a possible embargo on imports of Iranian oil.  Signs of economic recovery in the US are not generating excitement.  Tonight Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season & expectations are low.

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