Thursday, January 5, 2012

Mixed markets as Euro falls to a 15 month low

Dow was down 2, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 but NAZ gained 21.  The Financial Index rose 2+ to the 181s, a 2 month high.

The MLP index rose another 1+ to the 396s, setting another record, & the REIT index was up 2+ to the 232s.  Junk bond  funds were mixed as were Treasuries with the yield on the 10 year Treasury just under 2%.  Oil declined for the first time in 3 days, giving up a gain in the last 40 minutes of trading.   Gold rose, capping the longest rally in 10 weeks, after UK Defense Secretary said the country may take military action if Iran carries out its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz.

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CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...101.72 ...Down 1.50  (1.5%)

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Euro Falls to 15-Month Low Versus Dollar

Photo:   Bloomberg

Worries about Europe's banking sector pushed the € to a 15-month low against the dollar, under $1.28.  Bad news from Europe overshadowed positive US jobs data.  European bank stocks fell on worries that banks will have trouble trying to raise new capital.  Spain's finance minister said that the country's banks need to raise an additional $65B.  Weaker demand at a bond auction in France was also disappointing.  The € fell to lowest point since Sep 2010 & the $ strengthened against most other currencies.  The value of the € is a good measure of how bad things are in European financial markets.

Euro Drops on Crisis Concern; Dollar Gains as U.S. Job Market Strengthens


Target, a Dividend Aristocrat,  lowered its earnings expectations following a disappointing Dec, on weaker sales of electronics.  Strong grocery & beauty product sales offset weakness in electronics, movies, books & music.  In addition, sales & traffic were stronger in the week before Christmas thanks to last-minute shopping.  Total revenue for the last 5 weeks of 2011 rose 2.6% to $10.1B.  The company expects Q4 EPS of $1.35-$1.43, below prior guidance of $1.34-$1.53.  Analysts were expecting $1.48 per.  The Gap (GPS) & JC Penney (JCP) also disappointed.   TGT slid 1.49.

Target cuts outlook after Dec. misses expectations AP

Target Corporation (TGT)


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In an effort to boost its bottom line, PepsiCo, another Dividend Aristocrat is contemplating laying off about 4K workers & putting a stop to its 401(k) match.  By eliminating its relatively generous 401(k) match, the company would save $75M immediately.  If PEP let go 4K workers, it would amount to just over 1% of its total payroll.  While not material to the millions still out of work, this is another signal that the economic recovery is less than robust.  PEP fell 52¢.

PepsiCo Said to Plan Job Cuts to Boost Profits

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)


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There is a lot of nervousness ahead of the jobs report tomorrow before the open.  The markets will be looking for the economy to add 150K jobs in Dec.  The jobless claims data was good, but the ADP report on new jobs, while favorable, may have been influenced by seasonable factors.  Dec retail sales figures were good but stocks generally sold off because of heavy discounting needed for those gains.  Dow is still up in the first 3 days, but the last 2 have not been encouraging.  Meanwhile, MLPs continue their wining ways.

Dow Industrials


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