Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Markets rise on hopes for more IMF bailouts

Dow rose 96 finishing at the highs, advancers over decliners 7-2 & NAZ shot up 41.  Bank stocks led the rally with the Financial Index up 3 to the 187s & ever so near to its late Oct highs.

The MLP index was up 1+ to 393 & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 237s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fell on improving economic data, bringing higher yields.  Oil was little changed as traders have their eyes on the Strait of Hormuz.  Gold staged a comeback, finishing at a 5 week high & extending gains to a 2nd session.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.020%

U.S. 2-year

0.226%

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1.893%

CLG12.NYMCrude Oil Feb 12100.65 Down 0.06 (0.1%)

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The Greek gov resumed talks with its private creditors in the hope of sealing a debt relief deal needed to avoid a disastrous default.  It needs to clinch the agreement quickly to qualify for more bailout loans before it faces a massive debt repayment.  Without the bond swap deal, Greece will be cut off from its rescue loans.  A small steering committee, representing bond holders, is directly involved in negotiations. The talks which broke off on Fri, resumed today with Prime Minister Papademos & Finance Minister Venizelos.  There are still obstacles to concluding what negotiators term a “consensual restructuring.”  Official lenders may object if they conclude that the deal would be too expensive for Greece, forcing the country to go back for more official support later.  This doesn't look good.

Greek Talks With Private Creditors Resume With Deal Seen by End of Week


The administration will likely announce rejection of the TransCanada pipeline, according to sources familiar with the matter.  The decision will probably come from the State Dept, which has been charged with reviewing the project, & a joint statement will come from some of the larger unions & environmental groups in support of the decision.  It wasn't immediately clear whether the administration would continue studying alternative routes for the pipeline from Canada to the Gulf Coast.  Now unions & environmental groups are helping manage business affairs of the US!

Obama Admin Said to Reject Keystone Pipeline


Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders Climbs to Highest

Photo:   Bloomberg

US. homebuilders' confidence rose in Jan to the highest level in more than 4 years as sales & buyer traffic improved.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge increased to 25, exceeding forecasts & reached the highest level since Jun 2007.  However, readings lower than 50 mean more respondents still said conditions were poor.  Record-low borrowing costs, a growing population & reduced prices may drive demand for homes in 2012 even as another round of foreclosures threatens to weigh on the market.  The confidence measure, increased for a 4th straight month.  This is “yet another indication of the gradual but steady improvement that is beginning to take hold in an increasing number of housing markets nationwide,” Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders & a builder said.  Some rays of light, but it will take a lot more for the housing depression to end.



US wholesale prices unexpectedly dropped in Dec, consistent with the Federal Reserve (FED) assessment that inflation remains tame.  The PPI fell 0.1%, the 2nd decrease in the past 3 months according to the Labor Dept   The core measure excluding volatile food & energy rose 0.3% as the cost of light trucks climbed.  Less inflation offers the FED room for more policy steps to boost the economy.  For 2011, companies paid 4.8% more for goods, the biggest annual gain since 2007 & the core index increased 3% (the most since 2008).  The drop in the PPI was led by 0.8% decreases in both food & energy. About 30% of the increase in core prices in Dec was attributable to a 0.9% gain in the cost of light trucks.

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Decrease as Inflation Remains Tame


Dow has been up for most of the days this months with the setbacks being only minor in influence.  Dow rose 350 YTD.  A Jan rally is expected based on traditional standards from new money going into pensions & optimism about the new year.  Of course, the last 3 years have taught that traditional rules aren't being obeyed.  Bank earnings haven't been all that great, but are getting a reasonably warm reception.  Today Goldman Sachs (GS) rose more than $7 (7%) on future hopes.  Given these early results, it's logical to expect that other earnings reports will be viewed favorably.

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