Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Mixed markets despite strong economic data

Dow slipped 13, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 8 on good vibes from the CES show in Vegas.  The Financial Index rose 1+ to the 187s, just a couple under the Nov highs of 189.

The MLP index fell 3 to the 287s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 235s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were strong.  Oil fell as US crude & fuel supplies climbed more than expected & concern mounted about a contracting German economy.  Gold rose to a 4 week high as China's demand surged to a record & Europe's debt woes spurred demand for a safe haven investment.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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U.S. 3-month

0.015%

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0.225%

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1.902%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12....100.93...Down 1.31  (1.3%)

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  • <p>               In this Dec. 14, 2011 photo, line worker Jeff Danes demonstrates moving a battery charger for a Ford Focus on the assembly line at the Ford Michigan Assembly plant in Wayne, Mich. The final weeks of 2011 were the economy's strongest since it appeared to be slipping toward recession in late spring. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Photo:   Yahoo

The final weeks of 2011 were the economy's strongest since it appeared to be slipping toward recession in late spring.  Consumers spent more freely, factories made more goods, travel was stepped up & the auto industry enjoyed its best stretch of the year.  This comes from the Federal Reserve's survey.  All but one of its 12 banking districts experienced some growth from late Nov thru the end of the year.  However, some sectors of the economy (i.e. housing) remain weak.  The economy & job market have both picked up since early 2011.  Dec may end up being the strongest month last year, an optimistic sign for the economy in 2012.  Employers added 200K net jobs & the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, the lowest in nearly 3 years.  Still, the modest recovery is vulnerable to setbacks.  Europe's debt crisis could lower demand for US exports,  consumers could pull back on spending & Congress could decide not to extend the Social Security tax cut or long-term unemployment benefits.

Fed: Economy Improves; Housing and Hiring Still Weak


The ECB needs to ramp up its buying of troubled euro zone debt to support Italy & prevent a "cataclysmic" collapse of the €, David Riley said, the head of sovereign ratings for Fitch, said.  Riley said a collapse of the € would be disastrous for the global economy, & while it is not Fitch's baseline scenario, it could happen if Italy did not find a way out of its debt problems.  "The end of the euro would be cataclysmic. The euro is a reserve currency," Riley said. "What would that do in terms of financial and political stability?"  "It is hard to believe the euro will survive if Italy does not make it through," he said, adding that while many saw Italy as too politically and economically important to be allowed to fail, "one might also argue that it is too big to rescue."  The warning sent the € to a 16-month low of $1.27.  Riley urged the ECB to abandon its current reluctance to scaling up its purchases of troubled euro zone debt such as Italy's & drop its resistance to the bloc's bailout fund, the EFSF, borrowing directly from it.

ECB Must Do More to Avert Euro Collapse: Fitch


The CES convention/show in Vegas is getting a lot of attention.  Intel, a Dow stock, CEO Otellini said that 2011 sales were probably $54B, in line with the $53.9B average estimate.  “Any way you look at it, this will be the best year in Intel’s history,”  “We’ll probably get $54 billion of revenue.”  Analysts are looking or EPS of $2.37 this year & only $2.38 next year.  The stock was up 21¢ to $25.80.

Intel CEO Projects $54 Billion in 2012 Sales, Shy of Estimatesat Bloomberg

Intel Corporation (INTC)


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Once again, little was decided in today's trading.  The MLP index, which had been red hot, cooled down.  But owners are happy with record or near record prices for MLPs.  In a couple of weeks distribution announcements will be coming which should bring more hikes.  Earnings announcements begin in force tomorrow.  Ones from the big banks could mention more layoffs.  Today Dow worked its way back to breakeven in the PM, but not good enough to close in the black.  Dow is up 230 YTD.  Treasuries continue to do well with the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 1.9%.  Investors still view AA+ Treasuries as a safe haven investment & that money is not going into the stock market!

Dow Industrials (INDU)


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