Monday, December 17, 2012

Higher markets led by bank stocks

Dow rose 53, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 15.  The Financial Index rose almost 3 (a very big gain) to almost 217, a 3 month high.  The MLP index rose 1+ to just over 380 & the MLP index was up a fraction in the 261s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries slipped back.  Oil advanced for the 4th time in 5 days, reversing an earlier decline of 0.3%.  Gold erased losses after a report showed manufacturing in the NY area contracted more than expected, bolstering prospects for expanded US monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.238%

U.S. 10-year

1.723%

CLF13.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 13...87.03 .....Up 0.30 (0.4%)

GCZ12.CMX...Gold Dec 12....1,725.70 ...Up 29.90 (1.8%)









Intl purchases of US financial assets rose less than forecast in Oct as confidence grew that European leaders were moving toward resolving their debt crisis.  Net buying of long-term equities, notes & bonds totaled $1.3B, down from net purchases of $3.2B in Sep, according to the Treasury.  The projection was for net buying of $25B of long-term assets.  Net foreign purchases of US equities plunged to $598M from $23.8B the month before.  Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $56.7B in Oct, as opposed to net purchases of $4.3B the previous month.  China remained the biggest foreign owner of  Treasuries in Oct after its holdings rose $7.9B to $1.16T.  Japan, the 2nd-largest holder, saw its Treasury holdings rise $5.2B to $1.13T.  Foreigners bought a net $15.8B of Treasuries, as opposed to sales of $17.3B the month before.  Net foreign purchases of corp bonds totaled $3.64B, up from sales of $6.4B a month earlier.



Apple Downgrade at Citigroup Sends Asian Suppliers’ Shares Down

Photo:   Blkoomberg

Apple sold more than 2M iPhone 5s in China in their first 3 days of availability, setting a record for that market.  IPhone 5, launched in China on Fri, will be available in more than 100 countries by the end of the month.  The phone first went on sale on Sep 21 (when the stock reached its record high) in the US, Germany, France, Japan & 5 other countries, with more than 5M of the phones sold in the first 3 days.  That sales tally also set a record, beating last year's iPhone 4S launch by a small margin, but fell short of some expectations.  Over the weekend, an  analyst cut his rating to "Neutral" from "Buy," questioning the strength of iPhone 5 demand & saying that it's unlikely the stock will rally any time soon.  The stock's fall from its record (shown below) has been brutal.  Today it's down almost $6, $200 below its record high.

Apple Sells 2 Million iPhones in China in 3 Days AP

Apple (AAPL)


stock chart


House Speaker John Boehner

Photo:   Bloomberg

Reps & Dems are starting to talk about the benefits of waiting until Jan to reach a budget deal, even as John Boehner signals openness to allowing tax rates to rise for millionaires.  Obama rejected a Dec 14 offer by Boehner to raise rates on household income above $1M a year & lift the federal debt ceiling in exchange for containing entitlement program costs.  While Obama wants higher rates for income above $250K, Boehner’s offer marked movement because he has opposed increased rates for any income level.  In his latest offer, Boehner also said he would accept $1T in revenue, up from $800B.  But that offer would pair the revenue increase with equal cuts to entitlement programs.  Still, making a deal in early Jan that extends income tax cuts for all except top earners could be easier for Boehner to sell to House Reps because all rates will have risen as of Jan 1.  At that point, Obama will have made good on his campaign pledge to raise rates for top earners, giving him political cover to accept cuts to entitlement programs that Reps are seeking.  Obama is pressing for unilateral authority to raise the federal debt ceiling, while Boehner’s latest offer stipulates that “any debt limit increase would require cuts and reforms of a greater amount.”  Politics, not economics, will be driving any settlement, bad for the markets.



The rise in the stock market is not  convincing.  A wait & see attitude dominates most thinking by traders as they watch developments in DC.  The financial issues are huge & political considerations will control the outcome of the debate.  But the stock market is not worried as the Dow lumbers along slightly below its yearly highs.  The indifference about political debate can turn negative very quickly, especially if the new year begins with tax hikes & federal budget cuts.. 

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart








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