Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Markets waver on confusion coming from DC

Dow is down 13, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ gained 2.  The Financial Index slid pennies in the 222s (its yearly high).  The MLP index shot up an 3 to 388 (that's 8 in 2 days) & the REIT index slipped pocket change in the 264s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries rebounded after recent selling.  Oil maintained its gains after the Energy Dep said crude stockpiles dropped 964K barrels last week to 371M.   Gold fell for a 2nd day on speculation that a recovery in US housing & improving prospects for a budget deal in Congress will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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CLF13.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 13...88.04 .....Up 0.11 (0.1%)

CZ12.CMX.....Gold Dec 12.....1,665.10 ...Down 4.40  (0.3%)










US builders broke ground on fewer homes in Nov after starting work in Oct at the fastest pace in 4 years.  Superstorm Sandy likely slowed starts in the Northeast.  The Commerce Dept said that builders began construction of houses & apartments at an annual rate of 861K, 3% less than the Oct annual rate of 888K (but the fastest since 2008).  The decline follows months of strong gains & housing starts remain on track for their best year in 4 year as the housing market appears to be sustaining its recovery.  An encouraging trend was that applications for building permits, a sign of future construction, rose to 899K in Nov, the most since Jul 2008.  Housing starts fell 5.2% in the Northeast from Oct - Nov.  Starts in the West fell 19.2%.  Over the past year, housing starts have declined nearly 26% in the Northeast, the only region to record a year-over-year drop, suggesting that Sandy slowed construction.  The overall slide in construction was due mostly to single-family homes.  Builders began work on 4.1% fewer single-family homes than in Oct.  Construction of apartment buildings dipped 1%.  Housing starts were 21.6% higher last month than in Nov 2011.  Housing starts are far above the annual rate of 478K touched in Apr 2009, the recession low, but still well short of the roughly 1.5M annual rate consistent with a healthy market.

Housing Starts in U.S. Post Best Three Months in Four Years


  • A delivery truck returns to a FedEx sort facility in Boston, Massachusetts June 18, 2008. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
Photo:   Yahoo

FedEx profit fell 11.9% in fiscal Q2, less than feared, as the #2 US package delivery company struggled to improve demand at its air freight business.  EPS was $1.39, compared with $1.57 a year earlier.  Disruptions relating to Superstorm Sandy pulled EPS down by 11¢.  Factoring out those charges, EPS was $1.50, more than the $1.41 forecasted.  FDX has been trying to improve profit at its air express business, which has seen demand fall as shippers turn to less costly ways of shipping goods.  Operating profit at that unit, more than half of total sales, fell 33%.  "Persistent weakness in the global economy and increased demand for lower-yielding international services limited profits at FedEx Express," said Chief Executive Fred Smith.  Revenue grew 4.7% to $11.1B from $10.6B a year earlier.  The company held steady its profit forecast for 2013 when it expects EPS of $6.20-$6.60.  In Sep, FeDX had its forecast by 10%.  The stock rose $2.50.

FedEx (FDX)


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  • <p>               Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, joined by Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, left, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., right, as they finish a news conference about the fiscal cliff negotiations after a closed-door GOP strategy session, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2012.   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Photo:   Yahoo

The administration threatened to veto House Speaker John Boehner's backup plan for averting the "fiscal cliff," saying it was time for Reps to stop political posturing & continue trying to reach a compromise deficit-cutting package.  Plan B would block tax cuts from being triggered Jan 1 on everyone but those whose incomes exceed $1M.  The White House said Boehner's package did not raise enough revenue from the country's top earners, would leave too big a deficit-reduction burden on the middle class & omitted tax breaks used by families & businesses.  "The president urges the Republican leadership to work with us to resolve remaining differences and find a reasonable solution to this situation today instead of engaging in political exercises that increase the possibility that taxes go up on every American," White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said.  Boehner is planning a House vote on his proposal tomorrow, hoping that it will raise pressure on the president to make concessions as both sides continue reaching for a bipartisan deal on averting the fiscal cliff.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, also tried raising pressure on Obama, saying the president was risking his chance to strike a major budget deal with the GOP.  "He has a real opportunity to show he can govern," McConnell said on the Senate floor. "He's letting that opportunity slip away."  This is divided DC!

Stocks continue to behave as if they don't have a care in the world.  Resolving the budget deficit problems seems to be a long way off, but buyers don't see that.  A last minute, I mean last minute, solution using Scotch Tape is not the way to solve enormous financial issues, with more problems that will still need fixing.  Perhaps year end portfolio adjustments account for this buying.  Dow needs just another 300 to reach a new yearly high, which would NOT be deserved.

Dow Jones Industrials


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