Monday, December 10, 2012

Markets edge higher on budget talks in DC

Dow gained 35, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ jumped 17 even though Apple (AAPL) was lower.  After last week's strength, the Financial Index slipped a fraction to the 214s.  The MLP  index rose 3+ to the 389s & the REIT index inched up pennies in the 263s.  Junk bond funds lost ground while Treasuries were higher.  Oil & gold rose.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.234%

U.S. 10-year

1.610%

CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...86.80 ...Up 0.30 (0.4%)

GCZ12.CMX...Gold Dec 12.....1,712.80 ...Up 8.80 (0.5%)










Greece Is Close to Reaching Debt Buyback Target, Official Says

Photo:   Bloomberg

Greece extended its offer to buy back debt until tomorrow, seeking more bids from bondholders after falling short of a target to retire bonds worth €30B at a cost of just €10B.  The buyback is designed to provide for about half of a €40B debt relief package for Greece agreed last month by the EU & IMF.  Its success is crucial to ensuring Greece's debt is put back on sustainable footing &, more immediately, to unlocking badly-needed aid.  Despite the initial lack of investor interest, the scheme is expected to ultimately hit its targets since Greek banks, whose own fate depends on a successful buyback, are expected to absorb the shortfall.  €26.5B was tendered at an average price of 33.4% of face value when the offer expired on Fri.  That would mean Greece would still have €1.15B left over from the €10B it was allotted to spend to retire outstanding debt.  Assuming the same average price, it could buy an extra €3.5B worth of bonds.  "The aim is to reach the 30 billion euro target on the face value of debt to be bought back," said a gov official, adding the aim was to use all of the €10B given by lenders for the buyback.

Greece Extends Debt Buyback Deadline After Nearing Target


Spain's Prime Minister Rajoy

Photo:   Bloomberg

Spain’s biggest business lobby is getting as cautious as Mariano Rajoy’s gov on a possible bailout request because of concern how stringent conditions might be to trigger ECB bond-buying.  A rescue “could impose a criminal pace of reduction in public spending,” Alberto Nadal, vice secretary-general of CEOE, Spain’s main business group, said.  The group’s newfound skepticism contrasts with their earlier support for a request following the ECB’s unveiling of its bond-buying program in Sep after President Mario Draghi committed to do “what it takes” to save the €.  Rajoy has refrained from seeking such aid & pressure on him to do so has eased, with the yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds now 217 basis points lower than in Jul.  “The euro group isn’t a nearly purely technical body like the International Monetary Fund, it is made of representatives of governments that very often need to sell measures to their parliaments, so you can’t tell the outcome,” Nadal said.  Until recently executives of CEOE, which says it represents 2M companies, together with the research institute it is linked to, Instituto de Estudios Economicos (IEE) were calling on the gov to request a bailout.  The IEE said on Oct 22 that the sooner Spain asked for aid the better, as Spanish companies were suffering from more expensive funding than those in other euro countries.  CEOE Vice Chairman Arturo Fernandez in Sep said that “time was running out” for Spain because the nation was on the verge of bankruptcy.  Since then, the yield on Spain’s 10-year benchmark bond has fallen to 5.58%, from a euro-era record of 7.75% in Jul.  Still, the € fell toward a 2-week low against the dollar, in the $1.29s.



McDonald’s November Sales Gain 2.4% as U.S. Business Improves

Photo:   Bloomberg

McDonald's, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, said that a key sales figure rose in Nov, as US customers snapped up the breakfast offerings & limited-time Cheddar Bacon Onion sandwiches.  The increase follows a decline in Oct, the first drop in the monthly sales gauge in nearly a decade.  Global sales at restaurants open at least 13 months rose 2.4% in Nov.  The figure rose 2.5% in the US, boosted by popularity of breakfast options, its value menu & limited-time Cheddar Bacon Onion sandwiches.  It rose 1.4% in Europe, where it gets 40% of its business, as strength in the UK, Russia & other markets were offset by weakness in Germany.  In the region encompassing Asia, the Middle East & Africa, the figure edged up 0.6%, hurt by results in Japan.  Systemwide sales, which includes sales at all restaurants, rose 3.2%.  After years of outperforming its rivals, MCD has seen sales growth slow as the company faces intensifying competition & an uncertain global economy.  Global revenue at restaurants open at least 13 months fell 1.8% in Oct.  The last time it had dropped was in 2003.  The stock rose 80¢.

McDonald’s Posts Surprise Monthly Store Sales Gain in U.S.

McDonald's (MCD)


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Stocks continue to stumble around, but now with an upward bias.  Europe uncertainty is on the rise again, but the goings on in DC take center stage.  Nobody knows where the babble from DC will take us.  There is a growing feeling that Obama wants the economy to go over the cliff next month for his own political satisfaction.  Meanwhile, investment decisions by business execs are restrained as they don't know how tax increases & budget cuts will affect them.  But the stock markets keep rolling with the punches.  I'm not confident that attitude will last long.

Dow Jones Industrials


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