Monday, December 24, 2012

Markets slide lower ahead of the holiday

Dow dropped 51, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 8. The Financial Index was off fractionally in the 212s. The MLP index fell 2+ to the 385s & the REIT index rose a fraction in the 267s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries slipped back.  Oil & gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...88.61 ....Down 0.05  (0.1%)

GCZ12.CMX...Gold Dec 12.....1,658.60 ...Down 0.50  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece's drive to crack down on flagrant tax evaders such as doctors & lawyers is flagging & must be reinvigorated, according to the EU & IMF.  It has collected just half the tax debts & conducted less than half the audits it was supposed to under the targets set by its lenders, according to a survey by the intl lenders which was compiled in Nov.  "The mission expresses concern that authorities are falling idle and that the drive to fight tax evasion by the very wealthy and the free professions is at risk of weakening," it said.  By the end of Sep authorities had conducted 440 checks on suspected wealthy tax evaders, compared with a full-year target of 1300.  About €1.1 B in overdue taxes have been collected so far, less than the €2B targeted.  The lenders urged Greece to improve tax collection & focus on the cases most likely to produce results. "Doctors and lawyers are a good place to start," they said.  Tax evasion is endemic in Greece, making it more difficult for the gov to shore up its finances under its €240B bailout. With revenues falling short & the austerity-hit country obliged to meet its fiscal targets when its economy is shrinking for a 5th year,Greece is hiking taxes on middle-class wage earners who can't hide their income.  Out of sight doesn't mean everything is going well in Greece.

<p>               A woman rides the escalator past a giant holiday ornament at the CambridgeSide Galleria mall in Cambridge, Mass., Monday, Dec. 24, 2012. Although fresh data on the holiday shopping season is expected in coming days, early figures point to a ho-hum season for retailers despite last-ditch efforts to lure shoppers over the final weekend before Christmas. And with concerns about the economy and the looming “fiscal cliff” weighing on the minds of already cautious shoppers, analyst say stores will need to offer “once in a lifetime” blowouts to clear out inventory.  (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Photo:   Yahoo

Shoppers who waited until the final days before Christmas were rewarded with big bargains & lighter crowds.  But their last-minute deal hunting may hurt stores.  Although fresh data on the holiday shopping season won't be available until Christmas, analysts expect growth from last year to be modest.  Several factors have dampened shoppers' spirits, including fears that the economy could fall off the fiscal cliff, triggering tax increases & spending cuts early next year.  On Christmas Eve, Taubman Centers, which operates 28 malls across the country, reported a "very strong weekend."  But many last-minute shoppers in cities including New York, Atlanta & Indianapolis were spending less than they did last year, & taking advantage of big discounts of up to 70% that hurt stores' profits.  Some last-minute shoppers were holding off as much as possible for even bigger post-holiday sales.

Shoppers found bigger sales, smaller crowds AP

This was another listless day with many away, taking a long holiday.  Speaking of holidays, the pres is taking a very long holiday in Hawaii which will add $40M to the national debt.  While traders will be watching holiday retail sales on Wed, their main attention will be on the fiscal debt mess.  It looks like the ball has shifted to the senate.  Given divided DC, it's hard to imagine it can come up with magic to satisfy both sides.  Bargaining will go the last minute. literally, with an excellent chance that nothing will be accomplished.  The Dems won't mind going over the cliff, bringing lower defense spending, which they like, & higher taxes will be blamed on the Reps.  Bigger picture, the economy will suffer.

Dow Jones Industrials


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