Monday, December 31, 2012

Markets falter ahead of the fiscal cliff

Dow is even, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ jumped 17.  The Financial index added a fraction in the 218s.& is up 38 this year.  The MLP index rose 1+ to 380 & the REIT index was up 1+ to 266.  Gold rose, poised for a 12th consecutive annual gain (8%) as central banks pledge more steps to spur economic growth & US lawmakers near a deadline for budget talks.  I erased the reading below because it was a bad number.  Currently gold is $1664, up $8.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart


CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...90.39 .....Down 0.41  (0.5%)
















Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

House Speaker John Boehner

Photos:   Bloomberg

Congress hasn’t agreed on legislation to avoid any of the more than $600B in tax increases & spending cuts set to start taking effect TOMORROW.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid & Rep Leader Mitch McConnell worked thru the weekend on a deal without reaching an agreement.  Reid said last night that negotiations were continuing & that there may be announcements on the Senate floor at 11AM.  They are still divided over the estate tax, the income level at which higher income taxes would apply, the rates on capital gains & dividends, & how to prevent automatic spending cuts from starting.  Obama said on Fri after a White House meeting that if Reps & Dems couldn’t reach an agreement, there should be a vote on a scaled-back plan he outlined to raise taxes on annual income above $250K & extend expanded unemployment insurance benefits.  In all this confusion, there is little mention of spending cuts other than, DON'T LET THEM HAPPEN!



China’s Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace Since May 2011

Photo:  Bloomberg

Manufacturing in China unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months in Dec, boosting optimism that a recovery is gaining traction.  The final reading of a Purchasing Managers' Index was 51.5 in Dec, according to HSBC Holdings & Markit Economics.  That compares with the 50.9 preliminary reading on Dec 14 & a final 50.5 in Nov.  A level above 50 indicates expansion.  China’s economy may have rebounded after a 7-qtr slowdown as the gov increased spending on infrastructure & accelerated investment-project approvals.  The pickup may smooth the ruling Communist Party’s once-a-decade transition to a new generation of leaders headed by Xi Jinping, who took office as general secretary in Nov.  A separate, gov-backed purchasing managers’ index probably rose to 51 in Dec from 50.6 the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey (the highest reading in 8 months).  A rebound in China would be a plus sign a global economy that is stumbling at best.

China Manufacturing Pickup Shows Rebound Gains Traction: Economy


With taxes set to increase for almost every US worker at midnight, there is still no agreement & gaps between the 2 parties remain about going over the fiscal cliff.  Talks between Reid & McConnell stalled yesterday because of disputes over income tax rates, the estate tax & other issues.  McConnell reached out to Biden in an effort to break the impasse, while staffers worked into the night trading & reviewing offers.  The Senate will reconvene today at 11AM.  Reid said yesterday on the Senate floor that there would “perhaps” be further announcements then. “I certainly hope so,” he said.  “The sticking point appears to be a willingness or interest or frankly, the courage to close the deal,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “I’m willing to get this done, but I need a dance partner.”  Deeply divided DC will press on in its deeply divided ways!

Taxes to Rise for Workers as Budget Deal Still Elusive


Markets aren't doing much as they await developments out of DC.  Whatever is decided, do not expect much to be accomplished as the problems are massive   Budget cuts are hardly mentioned beyond the usual, "don't cut my money!"  Wrangling will continue long after the markets close & probably into next year.  Even when they come up with a Band-Air solution, raising the debt ceilng is right behind this mess & that could get even uglier.  All this is BAD for the markets.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart































No comments: