Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Lower markets as fiscal cliff worries increase

Dow fell 24, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 22.  The Financial Index was flattish at 221, continuing its winning ways in Dec.  The MLP index plunged 4½ to 381 & the REIT index fell 1+ to 266.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries rose.  Oil was big up, taking it over $90, & gold pulled back from early AM gains.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13....90.85 ...Up 2.24 (2.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Efforts to save the nation from going over a year-end fiscal cliff were in disarray as politicos fled DC for their Christmas break. "God only knows" how a deal can be reached now, House Speaker John Boehner declared.  Obama, on his way out of town himself (as expected), insisted a bargain could still be struck before Dec 31.  "Call me a hopeless optimist," he said.  Partly by fate, partly by design, some scary fiscal forces come together at the start of 2013 unless Congress & Obama act to stop them.  They include: $536B in tax increases (touching nearly all Americans, because various federal tax cuts & breaks expire at year's end) & $110B in spending cuts divided equally between the military & most other federal agencies (about 8% of their annual budgets, 9% for the Pentagon.  If that is allowed to unfold in 2013, it would lead to recession, a big jump in unemployment & financial market turmoil.  Can you spell "Uh, Oh?"

If We Go Over the 'Fiscal Cliff,' What Kind of Landing Will It Be?  AP


A man walks past a shop while carrying a shopping bag in New York, December 26, 2012. The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the financial crisis, with sales growth far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-Christmas discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

Photo:    Yahoo

The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the financial crisis, with sales growth far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-Christmas discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory.  Growth was always expected to slow this season, though an improving employment picture & rising home values had helped mitigate the worst fears.  Then Superstorm Sandy hit in late Oct, mild weather blunted sales of winter clothing & rising concern about the fiscal cliff became more of a reality, dragging down already pessimistic forecasts.  The latest sign of trouble came from MasterCard Advisors Spending Pulse, which reported holiday-related sales rose only 0.7% from Oct 28 thru Dec 24, compared with a 2% increase last year.  The preliminary estimate from SpendingPulse was in line with other estimates showing weak growth during the holiday season, when retailers can book about 30 percent of annual sales, & in many cases, half of their profits.  The latest holiday season could end up the weakest since 2008, during the last recession, when sales actually declined.  The National Retail Federation had previously predicted 4.l% sales growth this year, versus a 5.6% increase a year earlier.  As that wasn't enough, another storm is hitting the East Coast, a further damper on retail sales.

Retailers Scramble After Lackluster Holiday Sales Reuters


LG Eletcronics, the 2nd-largest Korean electronics maker, is unveiling 2 new television models based on Google software.  It will introduce the TVs at the Intl Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas early next month.  The new models will feature a redesigned remote control & improved voice recognition-based search.  GOOG, operator of the world’s most popular search engine, is trying to get more electronics makers to adopt its TV software, which debuted to lackluster sales for initial hardware partners such as Sony (SNE) in 2010.  The software brings search & online services, such as YouTube, to television screens with internet connectivity.  LG said it will use Google’s software in some models alongside its own smart TV technology.  “Wherever it makes sense, we’ll continue to look at it,” James Fishler, VP of marketing and sales, said.  “There are some unique features within the Google technology that helps pair your smartphone more seamlessly to your television.”  GOOG introduced a redesigned version of the service in Oct.  Google TV 2.0’s interface was intended to better showcase YouTube, & it opens up the platform for developers of its Android operating system to build applications for TV.  GOOG stock was off pennies.

LG Electronics to Expand Its Lineup With Two New Google Television Models

Google (GOOG)

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This is another dreary day in the stock market.  All told, stocks held up fairly well after retail sales data was negative & the outlook for going over the cliff is increasingly likely.  MLPs had a very bad day, possibly on concerns about losing their tax advantaged status.  Bearish sentiment in the markets has not been able to take command.  But as the year end deadline comes closer with no closure, sellers can bring the markets lower.  Dow is up 900 YTD in what has been an unspectacular year for the economy.

Dow Jones Industrials


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