Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Markets inch higher as April closes

Dow gained 21, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ jumped 21, led by a 12+ gain at Apple (AAPL).  The MLP index was up pocket change in the 456s (record territory) & the REIT index rose 3 to the 304s, a new post Lehman collapse high.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil fell, capping a monthly drop, before a report that may show that US supplies climbed to a 22-year high.  Gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.048%

U.S. 2-year

0.209%

U.S. 10-year

1.669%

CLM13.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 13...93.22 Down ...1.28  (1.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The pres said Congress has focused on short-term solutions to the budget standoff when it must instead negotiate with him on a “bigger deal” to lower the deficit & help spur economic expansion.  Obama, speaking at a news conference, said the automatic budget cuts that started taking effect Mar 1 are damaging to the economy & hurting US citizens.  He said that while there is “a genuine desire” among some lawmakers to reach an agreement, others are letting politics stand in the way.  “I cannot force Republicans to embrace those common sense solutions,” Obama said.  Lawmakers were elected “to do what’s right for their constituents and the American people.”  Instead, he said, Congress has become “pretty dysfunctional.”  The administration & Reps have been locked in a 2-year stalemate over finances that has hindered efforts to spur the economy after the worst recession in 7 decades.  A grand bargain to curb the long-term deficit has proved elusive, with Dems resisting cuts to Medicare & Social Security, & Reps opposing tax increases.  Obama cited quick congressional action to let the Federal Aviation Administration work around across-the-board spending cuts to end days of flight delays stemming from air-traffic controller furloughs as an example the short-term actions that lawmakers have been taking.  DC remains stuck in neutral.



Cyprus approved a multi-billion bailout agreement with intl creditors aimed at preventing the crisis-hit country from going bankrupt.  The agreement was passed as expected with 29 votes in favor & 27 against.  Cyprus struck the €23B ($30B) deal with its euro partners & the IMF last month.  Voting in favor were the ruling center-right Democratic Rally party & its ally, the Democratic party, which together hold exactly half the seats.  Casting the deciding vote was right-wing European Party leader Demetris Syllouris.  "If there was another realistic alternative, our decision would surely be different. Unfortunately, we have no other choice," said Democratic party leader Marios Garoyian.  A gov spokesman hailed the vote as a decision of "responsibility" that underscores the country's determination to deal with an "unprecedented economic crisis."  He said that the gov will dedicate itself to implementing the terms of the bailout agreement & to keep the country in the eurozone & EU.  All party leaders were urged, whether they voted for or against the deal, to rally around the gov.  "Above all is Cyprus' salvation."  But anger still lingers over the deal's terms, which include forcing depositors to take major losses on savings over €100K in the country's 2 biggest lenders.  The 2nd-largest lender, Laiki, is being wound down & folded into the bigger Bank of Cyprus.  Other European parliaments, including those of Germany & the Netherlands, have already signed off on the accord & Cypriot lawmakers have already approved most of its terms.  Ahead of the vote on the bailout, Cypriot lawmakers approved additional, bailout-mandated public sector pay cuts and a property tax.  The first installment of bailout cash should arrive by mid-May.

Cyprus Parliament Approves Bailout


<p> FILE - This Friday, March 2, 2012 file photo shows the exterior of Pfizer in Groton, Conn. Pfizer Inc. Pfizer Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens on Tuesday, April 30, 2013. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Photo:   Yahoo

Pfizer, a Dow stock, Q1 net income rose 53% despite falling sales, mainly because it took big charges a year ago.  Results fell short of expectations, & the company lowered its profit & sales forecasts for the year, blaming sudden worsening currency exchange rates.  The company is struggling because generic competition is reducing revenue for 2/3 of its drugs, more than a dozen of which are former blockbusters that brought in $1B+ annually.  The biggest hit has been generic versions of Lipitor, which was the world's best-selling drug for nearly a decade until it lost exclusivity in the US in 2011 & in much of Europe last year.  Annual revenue of Lipitor, which once brought in $13B, dropped 55% to $626M in Q1.  In Q1 EPS was 38¢, versus 28¢ a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, adjusted EPS was 54¢, a penny under than the forecast.  Results were boosted by a $490M gain from the transfer of some product rights to its joint venture in China.  One year ago, PFE took charges totaling $1.66B, for litigation, acquisition & other costs.  Revenue was $13.5B, down 9% from $14.9B a year earlier & below expectations of $13.99B.  Besides the loss in revenue from some off-patent drugs, there were declines in revenue of some big sellers protected by patents, including Viagra, which was down 7% at $461M.  Revenue for the consumer health products jumped 12% to $811M.  Revenue rose 5% to $2.4B in emerging markets such as China.  Going forward, CFO Frank D'Amelio said the steady weakening of the ¥, € & other currencies versus the dollar since Jan is expected to cut revenue by almost $1B over the course of the year.  As a result, the revenue forecast was cut by that amount, to $55.3-$57.3B.  The EPS forecast excluding one-time items was cut 6¢ to $2.14-$2.24 due to the lower revenue forecast & its Feb IPO of 20% of its animal health business, now called Zoetis.  The stock sank 1.36, the biggest loser in the Dow.

Pfizer Q1 profit up, but drugmaker cuts outlook AP

Pfizer (PFE)

stock chart


Apr closed on whimper.  The MLP index was up 1 for the month. not far from the record high set last week.  REITs also had a good month as did junk bond funds, near multi year highs.  After a slow start for earnings season, a few buyers returned to bring the Dow higher & it closed near record levels.  Earnings season is winding down.  Today's price swings mean little coming on the last day of the month.
 
Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart








Markets drift on weaker business activity

Dow was off 32, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ added 6.  The MLP index slid a fraction to the 455s & the REIT index was up fractionally in the 301s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher while Treasuries continued their 6 week rally.  Oil slid back & gold was little changed.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.048%

U.S. 2-year

0.205%

U.S. 10-year

1.638%

CLM13.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 13...94.26 Down ....0.24  (0.3%)

GCK13.CMX...Gold May 13....1,465.00 Down ...2.40  (0.2%)










President Barack Obama

Photo:   Bloomberg

The White House is quietly exploring the possibility of striking a deal to rein in the nation’s budget deficits.  Obama's chief of staff Denis McDonough went to meetings with more than a dozen Rep senators on deficit-reduction proposals.  Obama, who has held 2 dinners with Rep senators over the last 2 months, is betting on finding a middle ground for a fiscal deal in the Senate even as House Rep leaders map out a strategy that could heighten the risk of a US default later this year.  The move is an effort to break a 2-year stalemate between over the nation’s finances that has hindered efforts to spur the economy after the worst recession in 7 decades.  Amid concern among some Rep senators over scheduled cuts in defense spending if the impasse continues, the administration signaled its willingness to negotiate by proposing a budget that includes cuts to the health & retirement programs in exchange for rolling back tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy & corps.  At last they're talking even if this will require another last minute solution to solve a complicated problem.

Obama Focuses on Senate Republicans to Reach Budget Deal


A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011 file photo. REUTERS/Jim Young/Files

Photo:   Yahoo

Consumer confidence rebounded in Apr as Americans felt better about the outlook for the economy & their income prospects.  The Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes rose to 68.1 from an upwardly revised 61.9 in Mar (originally reported as 59.7).  A reading of 60.8 was forecasted.  The expectations index gained to 73.3 from 63.7, while the present situation index improved to 60.4 from 59.2.  Even so, consumers remain vulnerable to concerns over the recent payroll tax hike & in gov spending cuts that was triggered last month, the report said.  "While expectations appear to have bounced back, it is too soon to tell if confidence is actually on the mend," Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said.  Consumers' labor market assessment was mixed.  The "jobs hard to get" index rose to 37.1% from 35.4% the month before, while the "jobs plentiful" index also gained to 9.8% from 9.5%.  Consumers felt better about price increases with expectations for inflation in the coming 12 months falling to 5.5% from 5.8%.

Consumer Confidence Rebounds in April Reuters


Business Activity in U.S. Unexpectedly Shrinks as Output Drops

Photo:   Bloomberg

US business activity unexpectedly shrank in Apr for the first time in more than 3 years, a sign manufacturing may be a smaller contributor to economic growth in Q2.  The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer fell to 49, the lowest since Sep 2009, from 52.4 last month.  A reading less than 50 signals contraction.  The forecast called for 52.5.  Manufacturing, which makes up about 12% of the economy, is starting to cool in the wake of across-the-board cutbacks in federal gov spending that went into effect in Mar.  At the same time, consumer purchases led by demand for automobiles may prevent a sharper pullback at factories & help keep assembly lines running.  The employment measure dropped to 48.7, the weakest this year, from 55.1 in the prior month & the production gauge decreased to 49.9 from 51.8.  One bright spot was that orders held up, signaling the slump last month may be short-lived.  The index of new bookings climbed to 53.2 from 53.  Even with little change in demand, the measure of backlogs declined to 40.6, a more than 3-year low, from 45.  The gauge of inventories also fell to 40.6, the weakest since Dec 2009.  The index of prices paid slumped to 51 this month, the lowest since Oct 2009, from 61 in Mar.  The growth rate for GDP in Q2 may be weak again.



Stocks are doing very little as they digest the recent market advance.  In addition, on the last day of the month, traders are settling up on positions they're taken.  Today's market swings don't have a lot of meaning.  MLPs have been trading water in Apr at record levels for their index & it's up an enormous 80 YTD.  The REIT index is up 35 YTD & Dow rose 1.7K YTD.  At other times, these kind of gains would take 4 years, not 4 months.

Dow Jones Industrials