Monday, April 22, 2013

Markets slump on lower US home sales

Dow fell 56, decliners over advancers 2-1 but NAZ was up 2.  The MLP index continues soaring, up 1+ to 456 for a new record, & the REIT index slipped 1+ to the 296s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose with the yield on the 10 year Treasury at its lowest in 5 months.  Oil declined as sales of previously owned US homes unexpectedly dropped in Mar, bolstering concern about the economy of the world’s biggest oil-consuming country.  Gold finally attracted buying interest.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yieldsS

U.S. 3-month

0.048%

U.S. 2-year

0.224%

U.S. 10-year

1.686%

CLK13.NYM...Crude Oil May 13...88.39 Up ....0.38 (0.4%)

GCJ13.CMX....Gold Apr 13......1,423.70 Up ...28.40 (2.0%)










A realtor shows a home in Riverside, California May 24, 2012. REUTERS/Alex Gallardo

Photo:    Yahoo

Home resales edged downward in Mar, a pause in the housing market recovery that has helped boost the economy.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said that existing home sales edged down 0.6% last month to an annual rate of 4.92M units.  Expectations were for home resales to rise to a 5.01M unit rate.  The nation's inventory of existing homes for sale rose 1.6% to 1.93M, a 4.7 month's supply at the Mar sales pace, up from 4.6 in Feb.  More homes are expected to go on the market next month ahead of the summer buying season, said NAR economist Lawrence Yun.  The median price for a home resale rose to $184K, up 11.8% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since Nov 2005.  The limited supply of available properties is pushing up home values.  The share of distressed sales, which also include those where the sales price was below the amount owed on the home, accounted for 21% of home resales, down from 25% a month earlier.  It was the lowest since the NAR began tracking the number in Oct 2008 as the foreclosure crisis escalated.

Previously Owned U.S. Home Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March




Photo:   Yahoo

Caterpillar posted earnings & revenue that missed expectations & cut its full-year outlook for 2013 to reflect a drop in demand for heavy equipment from its mining customers.  After the announcement, CAT shares fell in pre-market trading before turning higher.  EPS excluding items was $1.31, down from $2.37 a year ago & revenue sank to $13.2B from $15.9B.  Analysts had expected EPS of $1.40 on $13.7B in revenue.  The company revised its 2013 sales outlook to a range of $57-$61B, with EPS of about $7 at the middle of the sales & revenues outlook range.  The cut was necessary "because our expectations for mining have decreased significantly."  The previous outlook was in the range of $60-$68B & EPS of $7-$9.  Analyst forecasts were for 2013 sales around $62B.  "What's happening in our business and in the economy overall is a mixed picture. Conditions in the world economy seem relatively stable, and we continue to expect slow growth in 2013," CEO Doug Oberhelman said.  The stock is up 24¢ but its chart is glum, far different than the sharp rise for the Dow.

Caterpillar Cuts Forecast on Decline in Sales to Mining

Caterpillar (CAT)


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Apple Profit Probably Fell First Time Since 2003 on IPhone Slump

Photo:   Bloomberg

Quarterly profit for Apple is projected to shrink for the first time in a decade, hurt by new products with lower profit margins & slower growth in iPhone sales.  Analysts have been reducing estimates in the last month, as its shares continue their slide from a Sep record high.  Competition from Samsung is also weighing on the stock.  An earnings report tomorrow may show that fiscal Q2 EPS fell to $10.02 & revenue is projected to show a rise of only 8% to $42.4B, the slowest growth rate since 2009.  AAPL may increase its div about $3.10 or boost share buybacks with $137B in cash & investments at the yearend .  Profit margins have been squeezed by higher component costs & the introduction of lower-priced products such as the iPad mini.  The forecast is for 35.4M iPhones sold in the latest qtr, compared with 35.1M last year.  There are predictions of lower iPhone sales in the current qtr.  The slide comes as Samsung prepares to start selling its Galaxy S4 smartphone this week.  The oversold stock gained 4 to 394.

Apple Profit Probably Fell Amid Growth Slowdown for IPhone

Apple (AAPL)


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This is the heart of earnings season & they are not getting a warm reception in the market.  CAT earnings are telling since it is has a truly global business, affected by all major economies.  However MLPs continue to be on fire, attracting investors by the energy boom in the US.  REITs are also doing well with the index essentially at a post Lehman collapse high.  More earnings are coming from major companies this week & they are not be expected to bring out buyers.

Dow Jones Industrials

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