Dow was off 32, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ added 6. The MLP index slid a fraction to the 455s & the REIT index was up fractionally in the 301s. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher while Treasuries continued their 6 week rally. Oil slid back & gold was little changed.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Photo: Bloomberg
The White House is quietly exploring the possibility of striking a deal to rein in the nation’s budget deficits. Obama's chief of staff Denis McDonough went to meetings with more than a dozen Rep senators on deficit-reduction proposals. Obama, who has held 2 dinners with Rep senators over the last 2 months, is betting on finding a middle ground for a fiscal deal in the Senate even as House Rep leaders map out a strategy that could heighten the risk of a US default later this year. The move is an effort to break a 2-year stalemate between over the nation’s finances that has hindered efforts to spur the economy after the worst recession in 7 decades. Amid concern among some Rep senators over scheduled cuts in defense spending if the impasse continues, the administration signaled its willingness to negotiate by proposing a budget that includes cuts to the health & retirement programs in exchange for rolling back tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy & corps. At last they're talking even if this will require another last minute solution to solve a complicated problem.
Obama Focuses on Senate Republicans to Reach Budget Deal
Photo: Yahoo
Consumer Confidence Rebounds in April Reuters
Photo: Bloomberg
US business activity unexpectedly shrank in Apr for the first time in more than 3 years, a sign manufacturing may be a smaller contributor to economic growth in Q2. The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer fell to 49, the lowest since Sep 2009, from 52.4 last month. A reading less than 50 signals contraction. The forecast called for 52.5. Manufacturing, which makes up about 12% of the economy, is starting to cool in the wake of across-the-board cutbacks in federal gov spending that went into effect in Mar. At the same time, consumer purchases led by demand for automobiles may prevent a sharper pullback at factories & help keep assembly lines running. The employment measure dropped to 48.7, the weakest this year, from 55.1 in the prior month & the production gauge decreased to 49.9 from 51.8. One bright spot was that orders held up, signaling the slump last month may be short-lived. The index of new bookings climbed to 53.2 from 53. Even with little change in demand, the measure of backlogs declined to 40.6, a more than 3-year low, from 45. The gauge of inventories also fell to 40.6, the weakest since Dec 2009. The index of prices paid slumped to 51 this month, the lowest since Oct 2009, from 61 in Mar. The growth rate for GDP in Q2 may be weak again.
Stocks are doing very little as they digest the recent market advance. In addition, on the last day of the month, traders are settling up on positions they're taken. Today's market swings don't have a lot of meaning. MLPs have been trading water in Apr at record levels for their index & it's up an enormous 80 YTD. The REIT index is up 35 YTD & Dow rose 1.7K YTD. At other times, these kind of gains would take 4 years, not 4 months.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Treasury yields:
U.S. 3-month |
0.048% | |
U.S. 2-year |
0.205% | |
U.S. 10-year |
1.638% |
| CLM13.NYM | ...Crude Oil Jun 13 | ...94.26 |  ....0.24 | (0.3%) |
| GCK13.CMX | ...Gold May 13 | ....1,465.00 | ...2.40 | (0.2%) |
Photo: Bloomberg
The White House is quietly exploring the possibility of striking a deal to rein in the nation’s budget deficits. Obama's chief of staff Denis McDonough went to meetings with more than a dozen Rep senators on deficit-reduction proposals. Obama, who has held 2 dinners with Rep senators over the last 2 months, is betting on finding a middle ground for a fiscal deal in the Senate even as House Rep leaders map out a strategy that could heighten the risk of a US default later this year. The move is an effort to break a 2-year stalemate between over the nation’s finances that has hindered efforts to spur the economy after the worst recession in 7 decades. Amid concern among some Rep senators over scheduled cuts in defense spending if the impasse continues, the administration signaled its willingness to negotiate by proposing a budget that includes cuts to the health & retirement programs in exchange for rolling back tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy & corps. At last they're talking even if this will require another last minute solution to solve a complicated problem.
Obama Focuses on Senate Republicans to Reach Budget Deal
Photo: Yahoo
Consumer confidence rebounded in Apr as Americans
felt better about the outlook for the economy & their income
prospects. The Conference Board's index
of consumer attitudes rose to 68.1 from an upwardly revised 61.9 in
Mar (originally reported as 59.7). A reading of 60.8 was forecasted. The expectations
index gained to 73.3 from 63.7, while the present situation index
improved to 60.4 from 59.2. Even so, consumers remain vulnerable to concerns over
the recent payroll tax hike & in gov
spending cuts that was triggered last month, the
report said. "While expectations appear to have bounced back, it is
too soon to tell if confidence is actually on the mend," Lynn Franco,
director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said. Consumers' labor market assessment was mixed. The "jobs
hard to get" index rose to 37.1% from 35.4% the month
before, while the "jobs plentiful" index also gained to 9.8% from
9.5%. Consumers felt
better about price increases with expectations for inflation in the
coming 12 months falling to 5.5% from 5.8%.
Consumer Confidence Rebounds in April Reuters
Photo: Bloomberg
US business activity unexpectedly shrank in Apr for the first time in more than 3 years, a sign manufacturing may be a smaller contributor to economic growth in Q2. The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer fell to 49, the lowest since Sep 2009, from 52.4 last month. A reading less than 50 signals contraction. The forecast called for 52.5. Manufacturing, which makes up about 12% of the economy, is starting to cool in the wake of across-the-board cutbacks in federal gov spending that went into effect in Mar. At the same time, consumer purchases led by demand for automobiles may prevent a sharper pullback at factories & help keep assembly lines running. The employment measure dropped to 48.7, the weakest this year, from 55.1 in the prior month & the production gauge decreased to 49.9 from 51.8. One bright spot was that orders held up, signaling the slump last month may be short-lived. The index of new bookings climbed to 53.2 from 53. Even with little change in demand, the measure of backlogs declined to 40.6, a more than 3-year low, from 45. The gauge of inventories also fell to 40.6, the weakest since Dec 2009. The index of prices paid slumped to 51 this month, the lowest since Oct 2009, from 61 in Mar. The growth rate for GDP in Q2 may be weak again.
Stocks are doing very little as they digest the recent market advance. In addition, on the last day of the month, traders are settling up on positions they're taken. Today's market swings don't have a lot of meaning. MLPs have been trading water in Apr at record levels for their index & it's up an enormous 80 YTD. The REIT index is up 35 YTD & Dow rose 1.7K YTD. At other times, these kind of gains would take 4 years, not 4 months.
Dow Jones Industrials
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