Friday, April 5, 2013

Markets decline after payrolls rise less than forecast

Dow dropped 40, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ 21.  The Financial Index fell 1+ to 242.  The MLP index pared AM losses to settle for a fraction loss in the 442s & the REIT index went up a fraction to 292.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries rallied taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury to its lowest level in 4 months.  Oil was lower again & gold gained 25 after the weak jobs report.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.063%

U.S. 2-year

0.226%

U.S. 10-year

1.695%

CLK13.NYM...Crude Oil May 13....92.67 Down ....0.59 (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Retail Employment Slumps Most in a Year as Sears to Wal-Mart Cut

Photo:   Bloomberg

Employment by retailers slumped the most in more than a year last month, hurting growth in the US job market, as higher payroll taxes & concern fiscal policies will reduce consumer spending prompt companies to trim costs.  Retail employment declined 24K in Mar, the biggest decline Feb 2012, according to the Labor Dept.  That included a drop of 15K in clothing & accessories stores & a decrease of 10K in building-material & garden suppliers.  Retailers have reduced workforces to cut costs & keep prices low at the same time that they work to fend off competition from online merchants.  Retailers have been cautious about hiring because of political paralysis in DC & concern about the 2 percentage-point increase in payroll taxes will slow purchases, said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation.  “Retailers are very concerned about getting the right mix of inventory and employees, and how to make that mix work,” Kleinhenz said.  The NRF forecasts US retail sales will increase 3.4% this year, slower than the 4.2% gain in 2012.

Retail Employment Slumps Most in Year as Stores Cut Back


Boeing Says 787 Battery Ground Trials Done as Test Flight Nears

Photo:    Bloomberg

Boeing, a Dow stock, said its flight of a 787 today will wrap up the testing for its fix of the battery problems that have kept the plane grounded.  The flight is the certification test for a new battery system & the test was "to demonstrate that the new system performs as intended during normal and non-normal flight conditions," spokesman Marc Birtel said. The 787 Dreamliner has been grounded since mid-Jan because of smoldering batteries, including a fire on the ground in Boston.  On Mar 12, the Federal Aviation Administration approved BA's plan to test the redesigned battery system, & this flight test was the final part of that plan.  The root cause of the battery problems still isn't known.  The flight was to demonstrate the battery fix for the FAA.  The same plane, built for LOT Polish Airlines, flew on Mon in a pre-delivery check flight, where pilots did things like raise & lower the landing gear & ran backup systems.  The FAA will still need to approve the results & certify the battery system before airlines can fly 787s again.  Fifty 787s owned by 8 airlines have been grounded worldwide.  The stock rose 1.15 & has performed well during this difficult time for BA.

Boeing Begins Final 787 Test Flight For Battery Repair

Boeing (BA)


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US gov spending on air travel may have fallen as much as 30% in the past month amid federal budget cuts that threaten to keep weighing on the industry.  Demand from federal employees may stay for some time.  It is believed that the gov accounts for about 3% of airline revenue.  Sequestration’s impact on US air travel won’t be as bad other difficult periods, but it will crimp 2013 results.  Major airlines this week blamed sequestration for shortfalls in a benchmark revenue gauge in Mar which came in 2-4% below forecast.

Sequestration Seen as Airline Drag as U.S. Cuts Travel


Stocks were hit with selling in the first hour, Dow dropped 160, but cautious buyers returned to limit losses & Dow closed near its highs.  More & more new economic signals are sending negative, describing an economy that is still struggling.  GDP growth in Q1 may come in with another drab figure (below 1% annualized).  Worse, Mar could be the worst month in Q1, sending a negative tone for Q2.  On the margin, less gov spending is squeezing hard.  At the same time, the increase in Social Security taxes may become felt more strongly by consumers.  The bull market for the Dow, up a massive 2.4K since the start of Jun, will be tested when earnings season begins next week.  Apple (AAPL), with the largest market cap in the world, fell 5 to 423, a 14 month low.

Dow Jones Industrials

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