Monday, April 8, 2013

Markets rise ahead of Alcoa earnings

Dow rose 48 closing at the high, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ added 18.  The Financial Index rose 1+ to 245 after stalling below 250 for more than a month.  The MLP index shot up 7+ to  the 252s (an unusually large gain) & the REIT index was up 2+ to almost 295.  Junk bond funds were generally higher & Treasuries were weak.  Oil rose amid clashes in Nigeria after talks between Iran & world powers ended without agreement.  Gold declined for the 4th time in 5 sessions as the dollar’s rebound reduced the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.058%

U.S. 2-year

0.228%

U.S. 10-year

1.731%

CLK13.NYM...Crude Oil May 13....93.36 Up ...0.66 (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




There's an important message for just about everybody in the budget battle: The pain is going to get worse.  DC has imposed enough austerity on the US economy, given the tax hikes & spending cuts already in effect.  Those measures, if they stick, will reduce the national debt by perhaps $2.5T during the next decade.  But that's not enough.  Budget experts say Congress needs to cut the debt by at least $4T, plus figure out ways to rein in the mushrooming cost of the biggest budget-busting programs:  Social Security, Medicaid & especially Medicare.  Budget measures up till now have done nothing about those entitlement programs, but Obama is finally seeking some reforms.  The changes Obama is calling for are less drastic than those advocated by Reps.  He would change entitlements in ways that would have a direct impact on people enrolled in them, in many cases reducing benefits & requiring enrollees to spend more of their own money.  Obama wants to reformulate the way cost-of-living increases for Social Security payments get calculated.  Many experts say switching to a so-called "chained" consumer price index would be a more accurate way to measure inflation which would mean lower cost of living increases for Social Security recipients.  For a typical retiree, a 1% point reduction in the cost-of-living increase would cut Social Security payments by about $150 per year.  There is more pain ahead for everybody if Congress is serious about cutting the fiscal debt.

The Scary Message for Everybody in Obama's Budget  US News


German Industrial Output Rose in February as Economy Recovered

Photo:   Bloomberg

German industrial output rebounded in Feb, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing after a contraction in Q4 as production rose 0.5% from Jan, when it contracted 0.6%, according to the Economy Ministry.  The forecast was for a 0.3%.  But from a year earlier, production dropped 1.8% when adjusted for working days.   Germany's economy probably returned to growth in Q1 after it shrank 0.6% in Q4.  Still, business sentiment in Germany dropped in Mar & renewed concerns about the sovereign debt crisis & its impact on the euro economy, which is struggling to emerge from recession.  Manufacturing output rose 0.5% in Feb, with production of investment goods up 2.4%.  Energy production surged 3.9% while construction activity dropped 2.7%.  Jan output was previously reported as unchanged.

German Industrial Production Increased in February


HP CEO Seeks Turnaround Unveiling ‘Moonshot’ Super-Server

Photo:   Bloomberg

After a board shakeup that was overdue, Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman is seeking to use a new line of servers to jump-start a multiyear turnaround of a company that has become a symbol of corp mismanagement.  The chairman & 2 other directors are leaving.  That’s giving the computer maker a chance to rebound from a 3-year stretch of falling sales, strategy shifts & management turmoil.  Part of the new campaign is Moonshot, a powerful, energy- sipping computer released today that’s designed to win a place in the data centers powering the world’s largest websites.  Whitman needs a hit product to convince investors that HPQ can deliver high-margin technology to make up for a weakening printer business & diminishing demand for PCs.  The $51B global market for servers is undergoing a seismic change.  Customers are opting to assemble systems tailored for their needs or source custom designs from low-cost suppliers instead of buying high-end machines from brand-name vendors.  Whitman, who plans to introduce Moonshot during a webcast today has cast the product as proof that HPQ is still capable of turning out relevant technology.  “This could truly be a revolution,” she told shareholders 2 weeks ago.  “This is not evolutionary innovation, this is disruptive innovation.”  The stock slipped a few pennies.

HP CEO Seeks Turnaround Unveiling ‘Moonshot’ Super-Server: Tech

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)


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Buyers returned from their long weekends to bid up stocks.  Maybe they missed the gloomy news about job creation on Fri.  There was little going on today in the markets.  Everybody is waiting for the first significant earnings report, from Alcoa (AA).  Some are saying it is less of a trend setter then in the past, but it still qualifies as the first, & as such, gives a glimpse of what to expect in earnings season.

Dow Jones Industrials

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