Monday, July 8, 2013

Higher markets ahead of earnings season

Dow rose 100, advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 & NAZ added just 3.  The MLP index was up 1+ to the 453s & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 279s.  Junk bond funds were up about 1% & Treasuries were strong along with rising stocks.  Oil dropped from a 14-month high after an official said Egypt's Suez Canal is “secure” & ship traffic thru the waterway is “normal,” even as violence escalated in Cairo.  Gold finally has a rebound going.

AMJ (Alerian MLP tracking Index)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.36%

U.S. 10-year

2.66%

CLQ13.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 13...102.60 Down ....0.62  (0.6%)

GCN13.CMX...Gold Jul 13..........,232.00 Up ...19.10 (1.6%)







German May Industrial Output Falls More-Than-Estimated 1%

Photo:   Bloomberg

German industrial production dropped more than predicted in May, adding to signs that Europe's sovereign debt crisis is weakening a recovery in the region’s largest economy.  Production fell 1% from Apr, when it gained a revised 2%, according to the Economic Ministry.  That’s the first decline since Jan.  The forecast called for a drop of 0.5%.  From a year earlier, production decreased 1% when adjusted for working days.  Exports unexpectedly fell in May & factory orders dropped for a 2nd month as the euro region struggles to emerge from the longest recession since the introduction of the single currency in 1999.  Still, German unemployment declined in Jun while confidence among entrepreneurs & investors improved.  German GDP increased 0.1% in Q1 after a 0.7% contraction Q4 of 2012.  The Bundesbank said last month that economic growth may have increased “markedly” in Q2, while warning of signs of a slowdown later this year.  Even though production weakened “somewhat,” the Economy Ministry said, “the recovery of the industrial sector should continue in a slightly damped fashion.”

German Industrial Production Decreased in May


<p> Municipal police officers gather outside the offices of the Union of Greek Municipalities during an assembly of Mayors in Athens on Sunday July 7, 2013. The municipal officers, frequently used for traffic warden duty and to check street vendors' licenses, staged the protest following reports they would be included in an involuntary staff transfer scheme. (AP Photo/Kostas Tsironis)

Photo:   Yahoo

Greece's intl debt inspectors reached a tentative agreement with the cash-strapped country on reforms needed to keep releasing vital bailout loans, although they warned it still faced an "uncertain" economic outlook & needed to layoff thousands of state sector workers.  While the country's creditors noted that progress has been made in some sectors, they said more needs to be done, particularly in trimming the size of bloated civil service. They added that the Greek authorities have "committed to take corrective action" to get the austerity process back on track.  The latest review of Greece's economy will be presented at a meeting in Brussels today of the finance ministers of the 17 euro countries.  They have to approve the next payment of Greece's bailout loan.  As he arrived at the meeting, French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said he thought Greece would get the green light & could get its money as soon as the end of the month.
Even Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, who generally drives a hard bargain at these meetings, struck a positive note.  "I am confident that we will take another step today and that we won't have any kind of dramatic crises in Greece also in the coming months," he said.  "It will remain a difficult road for Greece, there I would warn against any illusion."  The exact amount to be disbursed remains unclear.  Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras had said in Jun that the installment was expected to be as high as €8.1B ($10.4B).  But now that appears unlikely.

Greek creditors say agreement on reforms reached Associated Press


Alcoa, a Dow stock,  unofficially opens earnings season after the close when it reports Q2 earnings.  Analysts expect EPS excluding items such as the cost of closing smelters to be steady & revenue to be lower than a year ago.  A tepid global economy & oversupply have weakened prices for aluminum & weighed on results.  But the company has been helped by stronger demand for aluminum in cars & planes.  Aluminum prices fell about 10% from the start of Q2 to the end of Q2.   Demand has been strong in the automobile & airplane manufacturing sectors.  Analysts expect EPS of 6¢, excluding items such as restructuring costs.  Revenue is expected to be $5.85B.  A year ago, AA posted a loss of $2M, or break-even per share.  EPS were 6¢ excluding special items & revenue was $5.96B.  The stock is up pennies.

Alcoa expected to post flat 2Q profit Associated Press

Alcoa (AA)


stock chart


Stocks are having another good day, although techs are lagging .  High yield sectors like MLPs & REITs are rising.  But earnings season begins tonight with AA & then the big banks later this week.  With economies growing slowly (in the US & overseas), earnings will get more attention than usual.

Dow Jones Industrials

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