Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Lower markets on Federal Reserve concerns

Dow dropped 32, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 8.  The MLP index fell a big 7+ to below 461 & the REIT index was down fractionally to the 288s.  Treasuries sold off & the yield on the Treasury bond fell to a one-week low amid speculation the Federal Reserve will seek to damp investor expectations of a reduction in stimulus when Big Ben speaks to Congress tomorrow.  Oil fell for the first time in 3 days as US stocks declined & Federal Reserve (FED) Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said the central bank should taper its asset-buying soon.  Gold gained for the 6th time in 7 sessions as the dollar’s drop increased demand for the metal as alternative investment on speculation that the FED will maintain its monetary stimulus. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.53%

CLQ13.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 13....106.06 Down ...0.26  (0.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The directors at the Federal Reserve (FED) district banks said last month US housing was helping to generate moderate economic growth amid risks from fiscal cutbacks & high unemployment.  “Directors viewed economic activity as continuing to expand at a moderate pace,” according to thier minutes released today.  “Overall, directors continued to see downside risks to the outlook from the elevated unemployment rate and ongoing fiscal constraints.”  Data released today underscore that the economy is gaining strength as US factory assembly lines churned out more automobiles & computers last month, pointing to a rebound in manufacturing.  Another report showed homebuilders this month were the most confident in 7 years.  The minutes summarize discussions among board members at the 12 regional reserve banks as they consider whether the FED should alter the discount rate that it charges on emergency lending.  The discussions were considered at meetings in May & Jun.  The board made no change to the discount rate, which has been at 0.75% since Feb 2010.  But directors at the district banks in Kansas City & Philadelphia last month requested a quarter percentage-point increase in the discount rate to 1%, while directors at the other 10 banks voted to keep the rate unchanged.  Stay tuned!

Fed Regional Bank Directors Saw Moderate Growth Amid Fiscal Risk


Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation will seek to keep economic growth, employment & inflation within limits, avoiding “wide fluctuations,” without elaborating on what the gov deems acceptable.  China should also develop a “scientific macroeconomic policy framework” to offer markets “stable predictability,” Li said according to the gov website.  Li’s comments signal he won’t let expansion slow too much, without indicating any immediate plans for stimulus.  GDP rose 7.5% in Q2 from a year earlier, putting at risk the official full-year target for the same pace.  Last month, the gov engineered a stress test on banks that prompted the nation’s broadest measure of credit to fall to a 14-month low in an interbank cash squeeze.  China’s lack of transparency became a cause of worldwide concern as it rocked bond & commodity markets, helping to wipe out $4.5T in global equity value.  While China should continue restructuring its economy to promote sustainable growth, some economic fluctuation is “objectively inevitable,” Li said.  China will focus on restructuring when the economy runs within the limits of growth and inflation, shifting to stabilizing growth or preventing inflation when those limits are approached, Li said.

China to Avoid ‘Wide Fluctuations’ in Economy, Li Says


<p> In this Monday, July 15, 2013 photo, Johnson & Johnson baby products are shown for sale at a pharmacy in Miami. Johnson & Johnson reports quarterly earnings on Tuesday, July 16, 2013. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Photo:   Yahoo

Johnson & Johnson, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, Q2 profit more than doubled, due to lower charges & higher sales for medicines & some medical devices, but it said it expects slower growth in H2.  Results easily beat expectations & JNJ raised its 2013 profit forecast slightly.  Sales growth is slowing & competition is increasing for its devices & prescription drugs.  It's had to lower prices for some of those products due to pressure from gov & other buyers, increasing competition & "soft" retail markets, as many consumers continue to pinch pennies amid lingering effects of the recession 5 years ago.  In particular, inpatient surgeries, which affect sales of everything from bandages & certain drugs to scalpels & diagnostic tests, have been flat or down for about 3 years, CEO Alex Gorsky said.  Revenue for the diabetes business dropped 23 % in the US & 13% worldwide, despite the growing number of diabetics worldwide.  Unfavorable currency exchange rates cut revenue by 1.5%, & the manufacturing issues behind about 4 dozen product recalls since 2009 aren't all resolved.  Still,  Gorsky said recently-launched drugs such as Xarelto for preventing dangerous blood clots are selling well.  He also repeatedly said JNJ has plenty of opportunity to expand sales, particularly in emerging markets such as China & India.  "We still feel that we are uniquely positioned for strong growth and success," because of J&J's diverse product lines, Gorsky said.  EPS was $1.33, up from 50¢ a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $1.48 & revenue was $17.9B, up 8.5% from $16.5B a year earlier.   Analysts were expecting EPS of $1.39 & sales of $17.7B.  Key reasons for the profit jump were a very low tax rate, a huge acquisition of orthopedics device maker Synthes last year & a gain from selling the interest in Irish drugmaker Elan.  It was also an easy comparison over last year which was hurt by $2.2B in charges for the Synthes acquisition, litigation & asset write-downs.  The stock was flat today.

J&J Raises Annual Forecast After Selling Its Stake in Elan, Doubling Net

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

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Dow has risen a massive 850 in just 3 weeks.  Volume was low as time is need is needed to digest those gains.  Initial earnings reports can only be described as so-so.  JNJ, in particular, had a good report, primarily due to one time factors & it left a slightly negative after taste with a cautionary outlook.  Big Ben will speak tomorrow & traders will be hanging on his every word.

Dow Jones Industrials

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