Monday, July 22, 2013

Markets waffle on disappointing earnings

Dow clawed its way up just 1 point, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 12.  The MLP index went up 2 to the 463s & the REIT index rose 1 to 293.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries hardly budged.  Oil fell from a 16-month high as an unexpected drop in purchases of existing homes & weaker-than-expected company earnings raised concern that US growth will stall.  Gold gained the most in more than a year on speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain US economic stimulus, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.30%

U.S. 10-year

2.49%

CLQ13.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 13...106.95 Down ...1.10  (1.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




China Shipyards Squeezed by Low Down Payments Amid Credit Crunch

Photo:   Bloomberg

During the 2007 shipping boom, China's shipyards charged down payments of as much as 60% of a vessel’s value.  Now, shipbuilders are cutting those payments to as little as 2%, giving an advantage to state-owned companies that can into tap the gov.  With flagging demand pushing shipyards to compete by cutting down payments & China taking measures to rein in lending, privately owned yards are getting squeezed by state-owned rivals that enjoy greater access to financing.  China Rongsheng Heavy Industries, the largest shipbuilder outside state control, said this month it’s seeking gov support after failing to win any new vessel orders this year.  State-backed companies grabbed 74% of new vessel orders in China, the world’s biggest shipbuilding nation, in H1, compared with 52% in all of 2012.  The ability to get financing has become critical for yards to win orders.  Of 1591 shipyards in China in 2011, 70 were state-owned.  Rongsheng & other shipmakers are struggling as a global vessel glut makes orders more difficult to win & pushes down prices.  1/3 of the shipyards in China, the world’s biggest shipbuilding nation, may be shut in about 5 years as they failed to win orders “for a very long period of time,” the shipbuilders group said 2 weeks ago.

China Shipyards Hurt by Low Down Payments Amid Credit Crunch


Apple's latest quarterly results are likely to illustrate why investors are clamoring for the company to come out with another trend-setting device.  The report, due out after the market close tomorrow, is expected to show that AAPL is making less money as more customers buy its lower-priced iPhones & iPads instead of the top-of-the-line models.  Others are increasingly are buying smartphones & tablet computers running Android software from Google (GOOG).  AAPL now looks vulnerable & perhaps a step behind GOOG & Samsung Electronics.  Analysts are projecting that EPS fell in fiscal Q3, marking the 2nd consecutive quarterly decline.  The forecast is for EPS of $7.34, down from $9.32 a year ago.  In addition, the forecast is for little or no revenue growth for the first time since the debut of the iPhone 6 years ago.  Analysts expect $35B in revenue similar to last year.  Despite the downturn, its products still have legions of admirers.  Sales of iPhones for the just-ended qtr are expected to total about 26M, but a growing number of consumers have been content to buy the older iPhone 4 & iPhone 4S models, which are less expensive & less profitable.   The stock was up pocket change in the 425s & has a dismal chart

Will Apple's latest results be latest letdown? Associated Press

Apple (AAPL)


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Kimberly-Clark, a Dividend Aristocrat, added a cautious tone to its full-year outlook, saying the stronger US dollar might hurt results more than expected, even as it posted a bigger-than-anticipated rise in quarterly profit.  But it still expects 2013 earnings per share of $5.60-$5.75, excluding items. The forecast includes expectations for a bigger hit from the stronger US dollar,which is expected to reduce full-year sales 1-2%, versus a prior view for a hit of less than 1%.  If currencies hold at recent rates it would be less likely to post earnings in the upper half of the forecast.  In Q2, EPS was $1.36, up from $1.26 last year.  Excluding restructuring costs related to changes in its European business, EPS was $1.41, ahead of the $1.39 forecast.  Sales were roughly flat at $5.27B, under the estimate of $5.34B.  Excluding foreign exchange & lost sales from the exit of certain businesses in Europe, organic sales rose 3% & intl sales rose 9%.  The company expects to be able to cut $300M-$350M.  The stock fell 1.82 to the 97s after reaching a record high of 104 earlier this year.

Kimberly-Clark upholds '13 view despite second quarter beatReuters

Kimberly-Clark (KMB)


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The stock market rally is looking for traction.  The bulls want to take stocks higher but there is a lack of supporting earnings.  As next week's FOMC meeting approaches, there is an extra major worry for the bulls.  Dow extended its recent trend of inching up a few points every day to squeak out a new record.  That's not encouraging, even for the bulls.

Dow Jones Industrials

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