Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Mixed markets on jobs report versus global tensions

Dow rose 56, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ was up 10.  The MLP index lost 3+ to 453 & the REIT index was 2+ lower to the 278s.  Junk bond funds were down 1-2% & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil went over 101, aided by rising tensions in the MidEast.  Gold futures rose as Europe's debt crisis & escalating tensions in Egypt spurred demand for the precious metal as a haven.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.36%

U.S. 10-year

2.50%

CLQ13.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 13...101.15 Up ...1.55 (1.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Service Industries Unexpectedly Grew at Slower Pace

Photo:   Bloomberg

Service industries in the US unexpectedly expanded in Jun at the slowest pace in more than 3 years, indicating widespread progress may elude the economy even as manufacturing improves.  The Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing index dropped to 52.2 last month, the lowest reading since Feb 2010, from 53.7 in May.  The forecast called for a rise to 54.  A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion in the industries that make up almost 90% of the economy.  Service providers placed orders at a slower pace even as they hired more workers, which may indicate demand is strong enough to prompt a pickup in economic growth later this year.  The slowdown indicates the effects of the payroll tax increase & gov budget cuts that took effect earlier this year may still be lingering.  The ISM’s factory index earlier this week showed manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the economy, expanded more than expected in May, climbing to a 3-month high of 50.9 from 49 in May, but employment lagged, falling to 48.7 from 50.1 in the prior month.  The non-manufacturing survey’s measure of new orders decreased to 50.8 in Jun, the weakest reading since Jul 2009, from 56 a month earlier.  A gauge of business activity dropped to 51.7, the lowest since Nov 2009, from 56.5.  Employment was a bright spot, with the hiring gauge climbing to 54.7, a 4-month high, from 50.1 last month.

Service Industries Unexpectedly Grew at Slower Pace in June


US companies added more workers than projected in Jun as businesses prepared for a pickup in consumer demand in H2.  The 188K increase in employment followed a revised 134K gain in May (1K less than initially estimated), ADP Research Institute reported.  The forecast was for an advance of 160K.  Companies added workers last month as home prices strengthened & Americans continued to buy cars, electronics & other goods in the face of higher taxes that took effect in Jan.  Manufacturers, construction companies & other goods-producing industries increased payrolls by 27K.  Construction employment rose by 21K & factories gained 1K jobs while payrolls at service providers climbed 161K.  Companies employing more than 499 workers added 49K jobs.  Employment at businesses with 50-499 employees rose 55K & the smallest companies increased payrolls 84K.

Companies in U.S. Added More Workers Than Forecast in June

Little was decided today.  However, MLPs are coming under greater scrutiny as the SEC investigates Linn Energy (LINE) & its accounting practices for hedging.  LINE plunged 11 in the last 2 days.  Fri, the market will be looking for 165K jobs to be added in Jun when the Labor Dept reports.  The thinking is that type of number is good enough to keep the bulls happy but not good enough for the Federal Reserve to alter its bond buying program.

Dow Jones Industrials

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