Dow was off 9, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ went up 7. The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 257s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries rose, lowering the yield on the 10 year Treasury to 2.86%. Oil slid below 61 & gold fell 6 to 1321.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks & Treasuries rose as investors took solace from suggestions that Pres Trump's tariff plan will spare select countries. The $ gained against the € after the ECB held its key rate & changed its language around stimulus. The S&P 500 gained for the 4th time in 5 days as the pres appeared close to signing orders for new steel & aluminum tariffs dialed back to exempt some countries & soften chances of a trade war. European shares rose & the € dropped versus the $ as traders digested the ECB's decision to drop a pledge to increase asset purchases if necessary & as Pres Mario Draghi downplayed the change. 10-year Treasury yields fell toward 2.87%. The specter of a global trade war has had markets on edge this week, as Trump's threats of steel & aluminum tariffs were met with talk of retaliation in China & Europe. The ECB's surprise change in language signaled its confidence in the euro area economy even as the concerns rumble on. However in his press briefing after the decision, Draghi acknowledged that protectionist threats represent a downside risk & described unilateral trade decisions as “dangerous.” Draghi also unveiled updated economic projections that showed growth & inflation similar to the picture of solid economic momentum seen 3 months ago. Crude oil traded near $61 a barrel as a gauge of commodities slid for a 2nd day.
US filings for unemployment benefits rose by more than anticipated from a 48-year low while continuing to signal a tight job market, Labor Dept figures showed. Jobless claims increased by 21K, most in 6 months, to 231K (est 220K). Continuing claims fell 64K to 1.870M, lowest since early Nov. The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, rose to 222K from the prior week’s 220K. Initial filings rose the most since the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. The increase followed the period that included Presidents Day & claims can be more volatile around weeks with holidays. Even with the latest rise, claims remain historically low, indicating employers prefer to hold on to workers amid a growing economy & a shrinking pool of qualified applicants. Analyst projections for monthly data due tomorrow show employers probably added workers at a steady clip in Feb & the jobless rate ticked down to a 17-year low. While applications for unemployment benefits below 300K are typically considered consistent with a healthy labor market, the level in recent years is below other expansions in part because some states have scaled back assistance. Unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 1.3% from 1.4%.
The latest on Pres Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel & aluminum is that he says he'll hold a meeting in the PM on the steel & aluminum industries. Trump tweeted: "Looking forward to 3:30 P.M. meeting today at the White House. We have to protect & build our Steel and Aluminum Industries while at the same time showing great flexibility and cooperation toward those that are real friends and treat us fairly on both trade and the military." The pres did not say whether he will sign tariffs on steel & aluminum imports at the meeting. The White House has not yet clarified the tweet. The White House said yesterday that Mexico, Canada & other countries may be spared from tariffs under national security "carve-outs."
Stocks are wavering, trying to figure where to go next. Nobody knows & the next tweet from Trump can easily move the markets. It looks like he will have an important meeting on tariffs in a few hours & we'll see what new news that brings. Tomorrow's Feb jobs report will probably be bland & should have little influence on the stock market compared with new thoughts about tariffs. Stocks are drifting lower as I write.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 60.77 | -0.38 | -0.6% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,323.40 | -4.20 | -0.3% |
Stocks & Treasuries rose as investors took solace from suggestions that Pres Trump's tariff plan will spare select countries. The $ gained against the € after the ECB held its key rate & changed its language around stimulus. The S&P 500 gained for the 4th time in 5 days as the pres appeared close to signing orders for new steel & aluminum tariffs dialed back to exempt some countries & soften chances of a trade war. European shares rose & the € dropped versus the $ as traders digested the ECB's decision to drop a pledge to increase asset purchases if necessary & as Pres Mario Draghi downplayed the change. 10-year Treasury yields fell toward 2.87%. The specter of a global trade war has had markets on edge this week, as Trump's threats of steel & aluminum tariffs were met with talk of retaliation in China & Europe. The ECB's surprise change in language signaled its confidence in the euro area economy even as the concerns rumble on. However in his press briefing after the decision, Draghi acknowledged that protectionist threats represent a downside risk & described unilateral trade decisions as “dangerous.” Draghi also unveiled updated economic projections that showed growth & inflation similar to the picture of solid economic momentum seen 3 months ago. Crude oil traded near $61 a barrel as a gauge of commodities slid for a 2nd day.
Stocks Rise as Trade Fears Ebb; Euro Falls on ECB: Markets Wrap
US filings for unemployment benefits rose by more than anticipated from a 48-year low while continuing to signal a tight job market, Labor Dept figures showed. Jobless claims increased by 21K, most in 6 months, to 231K (est 220K). Continuing claims fell 64K to 1.870M, lowest since early Nov. The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, rose to 222K from the prior week’s 220K. Initial filings rose the most since the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. The increase followed the period that included Presidents Day & claims can be more volatile around weeks with holidays. Even with the latest rise, claims remain historically low, indicating employers prefer to hold on to workers amid a growing economy & a shrinking pool of qualified applicants. Analyst projections for monthly data due tomorrow show employers probably added workers at a steady clip in Feb & the jobless rate ticked down to a 17-year low. While applications for unemployment benefits below 300K are typically considered consistent with a healthy labor market, the level in recent years is below other expansions in part because some states have scaled back assistance. Unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 1.3% from 1.4%.
U.S. Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected From 48-Year Low
The latest on Pres Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel & aluminum is that he says he'll hold a meeting in the PM on the steel & aluminum industries. Trump tweeted: "Looking forward to 3:30 P.M. meeting today at the White House. We have to protect & build our Steel and Aluminum Industries while at the same time showing great flexibility and cooperation toward those that are real friends and treat us fairly on both trade and the military." The pres did not say whether he will sign tariffs on steel & aluminum imports at the meeting. The White House has not yet clarified the tweet. The White House said yesterday that Mexico, Canada & other countries may be spared from tariffs under national security "carve-outs."
The Latest: Trump to meet with aluminum, steel execs
Stocks are wavering, trying to figure where to go next. Nobody knows & the next tweet from Trump can easily move the markets. It looks like he will have an important meeting on tariffs in a few hours & we'll see what new news that brings. Tomorrow's Feb jobs report will probably be bland & should have little influence on the stock market compared with new thoughts about tariffs. Stocks are drifting lower as I write.
Dow Jones Industrials
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