Dow went up 77, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ gained only 3. The MLP index felll another 4+ to the 435s & the REIT index bounced back 4 to the 321s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries advanced in price. Oil slid lower in the 65s & gold dropped 12 to 1242 after its recent rally to the mid 1300s.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
A rebound in global stocks showed signs of fading in the US, with equities fluctuating amid speculation the US would move to curb Chinese takeovers. The S&P 500 Index was weighed down by comments from Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross, who said the US will announce curbs on Chinese investments. That came after European & Asian equities rallied to catch up with yesterday's surge in the US, spurred by speculation the world will avoid an all-out trade war. The $ strengthened as both the £ & € retreated, while Treasuries rose. The € weakened as economic confidence in the region continued to slide in Mar. Stock bulls were looking for another catalyst for gains after the S&P 500's bounce higher from its 200-day moving average, a key trend line that's proven to be a support level for the past 2 years. Traders were encouraged by signs that the administration is pursuing dialogue with various countries in a bid to resolve simmering trade tensions. In a tweet Pres Trump said that talks are ongoing & that "all will be happy." Asia shares were green across the board, with Japan's Topix Index jumping the most since Nov 2016. South Korea's won was the best performer among major currencies as Kim Jong Un was said to be making an unannounced visit to Beijing, his first known trip outside North Korea since taking power in 2011.
Consumer confidence fell slightly in Mar but remained near an 18-year high. The consumer confidence index dipped to 127.7 this month from a revised 130 in Feb, the Conference Board said. The forecast called for the index to read 131.0. Americans were a bit less optimistic about current business conditions & the stock market after a recent stock market selloff. They said it was somewhat easier to find a job, though they weren't sure it would still the case 6 months from now. The present situation index, how Americans feel about the here & now, slipped to 159.9 from 161.2. An index that measures future conditions dropped to 106.2 from 109.2. The US economy is in very good shape nearly 9 years after the last recession. What’s more, tax cuts & higher federal spending are adding juice to the economy. Yet rising interest rates & recent ups and downs in the stock market have taken some of the shine off the economy. The threat of trade fights with China & other countries has also made investors nervous. “Overall expectations remain quite favorable. Despite the modest retreat in confidence, index levels remain historically high and suggest further strong growth in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the board.
Consumer confidence retreats in March but still near 18-year high
Europe's bailout fund approved a €6.7B ($8.32B) loan installment to Greece as part of its 3rd intl rescue program, with payment of the first €5.7B expected this week. The European Stability Mechanism said the approval came after the Greek government completed a series of required reforms. The funds will be used to service public debt & clear domestic arrears. "Today's decision ... acknowledges the hard work by the Greek government and Greek people in completing an extensive set of reforms," said ESM head Klaus Regling. The reforms were in tax policy, privatizations & the resolution of non-performing loans, among others. The ESM said the initial €5.7B are to be disbursed tomorrow. The remaining €1B, to be used for clearing arrears, may be disbursed after May 1 if the country "makes progress in reducing its stock of arrears." Greece has depended on €B from intl rescue loans since 2010 & its 3rd bailout is due to end this summer. In exchange for the money, successive govs have had to implement often painful economic & structural reforms, including tax increases & severe cuts to pensions & public spending. Regling said he was "confident that Greece is on track to successfully exit the ESM program in August 2018, provided that the remaining reforms are implemented by the Greek government." Greece's financial crisis has wiped out a qtr of the economy & led to persistently high unemployment, which continues to hover above 20%. The frequently unpopular reforms have also led to street protests.
Stocks are digesting yesterday's big advance. Problems have not gone away. New tariffs are a confusing mess. It's impossible to figure where they will take the US & global economies. As has been common for months, DC is dysfunctional. The chart below shows the Dow is at the low end of its trading range for the last 2 months. Tech stocks are still looking for buyers. The bulls have not made their case for taking stocks higher.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 65.50 | -0.05 | -0.1% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,342.30 | -12.70 | -0.9% |
A rebound in global stocks showed signs of fading in the US, with equities fluctuating amid speculation the US would move to curb Chinese takeovers. The S&P 500 Index was weighed down by comments from Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross, who said the US will announce curbs on Chinese investments. That came after European & Asian equities rallied to catch up with yesterday's surge in the US, spurred by speculation the world will avoid an all-out trade war. The $ strengthened as both the £ & € retreated, while Treasuries rose. The € weakened as economic confidence in the region continued to slide in Mar. Stock bulls were looking for another catalyst for gains after the S&P 500's bounce higher from its 200-day moving average, a key trend line that's proven to be a support level for the past 2 years. Traders were encouraged by signs that the administration is pursuing dialogue with various countries in a bid to resolve simmering trade tensions. In a tweet Pres Trump said that talks are ongoing & that "all will be happy." Asia shares were green across the board, with Japan's Topix Index jumping the most since Nov 2016. South Korea's won was the best performer among major currencies as Kim Jong Un was said to be making an unannounced visit to Beijing, his first known trip outside North Korea since taking power in 2011.
U.S. Stock Rally Fades After Surge in Asia, Europe: Markets Wrap
Consumer confidence fell slightly in Mar but remained near an 18-year high. The consumer confidence index dipped to 127.7 this month from a revised 130 in Feb, the Conference Board said. The forecast called for the index to read 131.0. Americans were a bit less optimistic about current business conditions & the stock market after a recent stock market selloff. They said it was somewhat easier to find a job, though they weren't sure it would still the case 6 months from now. The present situation index, how Americans feel about the here & now, slipped to 159.9 from 161.2. An index that measures future conditions dropped to 106.2 from 109.2. The US economy is in very good shape nearly 9 years after the last recession. What’s more, tax cuts & higher federal spending are adding juice to the economy. Yet rising interest rates & recent ups and downs in the stock market have taken some of the shine off the economy. The threat of trade fights with China & other countries has also made investors nervous. “Overall expectations remain quite favorable. Despite the modest retreat in confidence, index levels remain historically high and suggest further strong growth in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the board.
Consumer confidence retreats in March but still near 18-year high
Europe's bailout fund approved a €6.7B ($8.32B) loan installment to Greece as part of its 3rd intl rescue program, with payment of the first €5.7B expected this week. The European Stability Mechanism said the approval came after the Greek government completed a series of required reforms. The funds will be used to service public debt & clear domestic arrears. "Today's decision ... acknowledges the hard work by the Greek government and Greek people in completing an extensive set of reforms," said ESM head Klaus Regling. The reforms were in tax policy, privatizations & the resolution of non-performing loans, among others. The ESM said the initial €5.7B are to be disbursed tomorrow. The remaining €1B, to be used for clearing arrears, may be disbursed after May 1 if the country "makes progress in reducing its stock of arrears." Greece has depended on €B from intl rescue loans since 2010 & its 3rd bailout is due to end this summer. In exchange for the money, successive govs have had to implement often painful economic & structural reforms, including tax increases & severe cuts to pensions & public spending. Regling said he was "confident that Greece is on track to successfully exit the ESM program in August 2018, provided that the remaining reforms are implemented by the Greek government." Greece's financial crisis has wiped out a qtr of the economy & led to persistently high unemployment, which continues to hover above 20%. The frequently unpopular reforms have also led to street protests.
Greece gets green light for 6.7 billion euro bailout batch
Stocks are digesting yesterday's big advance. Problems have not gone away. New tariffs are a confusing mess. It's impossible to figure where they will take the US & global economies. As has been common for months, DC is dysfunctional. The chart below shows the Dow is at the low end of its trading range for the last 2 months. Tech stocks are still looking for buyers. The bulls have not made their case for taking stocks higher.
Dow Jones Industrials
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