Monday, June 4, 2018

Markets continue to climb after jobs report on Friday

Dow shot up 184, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ went up 12.  The MLP index rose 1+ to 270 & the REIT index added 1+ to the 342s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries declined in price, taking yields higher.  Oil dropped to the 64s (more below) & gold was steady at 1299.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil65.77-0.04 -0.1%

GC=FGold   1,299.80
+0.50+0.0%






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Stocks climbed with traders looking past trade concerns & focusing on the bullish Fri jobs report.  The US added 223K jobs in May, pushing the May unemployment rate down to 3.8%, an 18-year low.  The positive jobs report suggested that the economy still has plenty of room to run.  Meanwhile, over the weekend finance ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan & the UK expressed their “unanimous concern and disappointment” with the US decision to impose tariffs on steel & aluminum imports from Canada, the EU & Mexico.  Tariffs & trade will likely dominate the conversation at the meeting of leaders of the G7 nations this Fri & Sat in Canada.  Oil prices were lower.  Data released last week from the Energy Information Administration, showed that in Mar, US oil production climbed to 10.47M barrels per day, a monthly record.

US stocks higher amid economic optimism


Oil prices fell as US production hit a record high & as OPEC members considered boosting supply.  Benchmark Brent crude oil lost $1.26 a barrel (1.6%) to hit a low of $75.53 before recovering a little to $75.69.  US light crude was 40¢ lower at 65.41 a barrel.  The US contract lost about 3% last week, after a near 5% decline the week before.  US crude production climbed in Mar to 10.47M barrels per day (bpd), a monthly record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed last week.  US drillers added 2 oil rigs last week, bringing the total to 861, the most since Mar 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said.  That was the 8th time drillers have added rigs in the past 9 weeks.  Arab oil ministers agreed over the weekend on the need for continued cooperation between members of OPEC & other big producers to balance global supply, Kuwait's state news agency reported.  OPEC ministers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait & Algeria along with their counterpart from non-OPEC Oman met unofficially in Kuwait on Sat.  OPEC meets formally on Jun 22 to set oil policy.  It is expected to agree to raise output to cool the market amid worries over Iranian & Venezuelan supply & after DC raised concerns the oil rally was going too far,sources said  Saudi Arabia, effective OPEC leader, & Russia have discussed boosting output to compensate for supply losses from Venezuela & to address concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Iranian output. 

Oil down as US supply grows, OPEC mulls higher output

Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow & NAS stock, announced it would acquire coding website GitHub in a $7.5B, all-stock deal.  “Microsoft is a developer-first company, and by joining forces with GitHub we strengthen our commitment to developer freedom, openness and innovation,” CEO Satya Nadella said.  “We recognize the community responsibility we take on with this agreement and will do our best work to empower every developer to build, innovate and solve the world’s most pressing challenges.”  The deal is expected to close by the end of the calendar year.  The stock went up 52¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Microsoft to buy GitHub in $7.5B deal


With a lack of earnings & major economic reports, markets could focus more heavily on trade-related headlines in the coming week, & they could get nasty as Pres Trump prepares to meet world leaders in Canada.  There could be major developments on the trade front with China during the coming week, as well, & more clarity on whether revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement can be concluded this year.  The heads of G-7 nations travel to Quebec at the end of the week for a meeting hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau & including leaders of Germany, Italy, France, UK & Japan, all countries subject to US tariffs.  Already, G-7 finance ministers, meeting in British Columbia over the weekend, chastised the US for the trade skirmishes brewing across the world.  Last week, Japan called for rational debate to prevent protectionism from harming the global economy.  After plummeting Thurs when US tariffs were announced, stocks were rallying big on Fri following May's robust jobs report & solid manufacturing data.  The US imposed new 25% tariffs on steel & 10% tariffs on aluminum, imported from the EU, Canada & Mexico.  The tariffs prompted swift retaliation & raised doubts about whether the administration will be able to reach a near-term agreement with Canada & Mexico on a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement.  But many market strategists say those tariffs alone will not rock the stock market or economy unless they escalate.  The bigger question is whether the US can resolve trade disputes with China & come to a new NAFTA accord.  As for China, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross touched down in Beijing Sat, amid a widening disagreement over whether China would agree to commit to long-term contracts on US energy & agricultural products.

Trump is heading to Canada this week — and that's when things on the trade front could get uglier

Stocks continue to fly higher on the favorable economic data published on Fri.  Sounds good, but we've seen that thinking before (especially this year).  The Dow is heading for 25K, although the dark clouds on trade talks have not gone away.  They may become more apparent as the G-7 meeting gets closer.

Dow Jones Industrials








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