Monday, June 25, 2018

Markets decline on growing trade worries

Dow sank 264, decliners over advancers almost 4-1 & NAZ dropped 128.  The MLP index declined 4+ to the 261s & the REIT index was off 2 to the 348s.  Junk bond funds pulled back while Treasuries climbed higher.  Oil went up in the 68s & gold lost 2 to 1268.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil68.86
+0.28+0.4%

GC=FGold  1,268.90
 -1.80 -0.1%






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Pres Trump is preparing a plan that will further ramp up trade concerns with China.  The plan would bar many Chinese companies from investing in US technology firms & by blocking additional technology exports to Beijing.  The curbs are reportedly set to be announced by the end of the week & will be aimed at preventing Beijing from moving ahead with plans outlined in its "Made in China 2025" report to become a global leader in 10 broad areas of technology.  The Treasury Dept would block firms with at least 25% Chinese ownership from buying companies involved in what the White House calls "industrially significant technology."  In addition, the National Security Council & the Commerce Dept are putting together plans for "enhanced" export controls, designed to keep such technologies from being shipped to China.  Last week, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on as much as $450B of Chinese goods.  Tariffs of 25% go into effect on $34B of Chinese imports on Jul 6.  Beijing has threatened to match the US tariffs on the same day on a $-for-$ basis.

Trump takes direct aim at Beijing's 'Made in China 2025' project


In early hours of trading,  the Dow was lower by 0.8%., the S&P 500 was down 0.6% & NAZ fell 1%.  The Treasury Dept would block firms with at least 25% Chinese ownership from buying companies involved in what the White House calls "industrially significant technology."  In addition, the National Security Council & the Commerce Dept are putting together plans for "enhanced" export controls, designed to keep such technologies from being shipped to China.  That news led to China's Shanghai Composite to reverse early gains to end lower, sliding 1.1% & the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ended the day falling 1.3%.  Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.6%, extending recent losses.  In Europe, German business sentiment fell in Jun & Germany's DAX fell 1.5%.  London's FTSE traded lower by 1.3% & France CAC dropped 0.9%.  The major US stock indices were mixed Fri, but the Dow snapped its longest losing streak in 15 months amid a surge in oil prices.  The Dow added 119 to 24,580, the blue-chip index's first rally in 9 days.  The S&P 500 rose 5 to 2754 & NAZ was down 20 at 7692.  Stocks still posted losses for the week, after concerns of a trade war spooked investors & weighed on corp stocks that have exposure to intl trade.  All eyes were on the OPEC meeting Fri.  According to an OPEC source, the oil ministers agreed in principle to a production increase of up to 1M barrels per day (bpd), around 1% of global supply.

Global stocks fall on Trump's further tariff plans

The EU has indicated it won't roll over after Pres Trump's latest tariff threat.  "If they decide to raise their import tariffs, we'll have no choice, again, but to react," said EU commissioner Jyrki Katainen.  "We don't want to fight (over trade) in public via Twitter. We should end the escalation”  Katainen was responding to a tweet from Pres Trump on Fri.  Based on the Tariffs & Trade Barriers long placed on the US & said that companies & workers by the EU, if these Tariffs & Barriers are not soon broken down & removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the US.  Build them here!  The Commerce Dept is currently investigating whether auto imports are a threat to national security.  On May 23, the Commerce Dept announced it would launch a 232 investigation in to auto imports.  “The Department’s investigation into whether imports of automobiles and automobile parts threatens to impair national security is ongoing" a Commerce Dept spokesperson said.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has been in discussion with European leaders said told that he expects to reduce Europe's trade barrier in an expedited manner, but warned of challenges with the bureaucratic European Commission.

EU fires back at Trump tariff threat

For the first time since Pres Trump took office, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows more than ½ the public approving his handling of the economy & it appears to be having some impact on his overall job approval rating.  The pres's economic approval rating surged 6 points to 51% with just 36% of the public disapproving, a 6 point drop from the Mar Survey.  His overall approving rating rose 2 points to 41% from the Q1 survey, but the percentage of Americans who disapprove dropped 10 points to 47%, the lowest during his presidency.  Trump's approval rating remains negative, at minus 6, but it’s also the lowest negative rating recorded since he took office.  The survey suggests that the recent controversy over his decision to separate children from their parents at the border has had little effect either way.  The poll of 800 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, was conducted Jun 16-19 while the controversy over the separation of children from their parents dominated the news.  But any impact on the Trump's approval rating is difficult to find in the data.  A comparison of the polling conducted Sat & Sun with Mon & Tues, when the story was more prominent, shows little difference despite considerable public outrage.  The poll does show that a 51% majority of Americans disagree with the pres's immigration policies, but the level is unchanged from last qtr & last year.  It is the worst issue for the pres among all the issues.

Majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time

Trade worries are affecting the investors & they should.  The implications are very serious because they can affect economies around the globe.  The Dow chart below looks glum & the outlook is grim.

Dow Jones Industrials








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