Monday, June 11, 2018

Markets edge higher ahead of North Korea summit

Dow closed up 5, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ gained 14.  The MLP index rose 4+ to the 273s & the REIT index slid lower to the 345s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold, bringing higher yields.  Oil climbed to the 66s (more below) & gold added 1 to 1304.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





Oil prices fell, pulled down by rising Russian production & US drilling activity creeping to its highest in more than 3 years.  Analysts expect surging US output to start offsetting efforts led by OPEC to withhold production, which have been in place since early 2017 & have pushed up prices significantly in H1.  Brent crude futures, the intl benchmark for oil prices, were at $76.21 per barrel, down 25¢ (0.3%) from their last close.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 21¢ (0.3%) at $65.52 a barrel.  Prices were weighed down by another rise in the number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the US which implies US crude output, already at a record high of 10.8M barrels per day (bpd), will rise further.  OPEC, together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia started withholding output in 2017 to end a global supply overhang & prop up prices.  OPEC & its partners are due to meet on Jun 22 at the cartel's headquarters in Vienna to discuss policy.  Meanwhile, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Sat that Russia's oil production, the world's biggest, had risen to 11.1M bpd in early Jun, up from slightly below 11M bpd for most of May, & well above its target output of under 11M bpd as part of the deal.  Beyond changes in the supply-side, strong demand has been supportive of oil prices.  Overseas crude purchases by top importer China remain above 9M bpd, despite a recent drop from records.  In India, Asia's #2 buyer, May fuel demand rose by 3.4% compared with the same month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed.

Oil prices fall as U.S., Russia supplies grow


The number of rigs exploring for oil & natural gas in the US increased by 2 this week to 1062.  At this time a year ago there were 927 active rigs.  Oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported that 862 rigs drilled for oil this week & 198 for gas.  2 were listed as miscellaneous.  Among major oil- & gas-producing states, Texas added 3 rigs, Colorado increased by 2 & Louisiana gained one.  Oklahoma & Wyoming declined by 2 rigs each & North Dakota decreased by one.  The US rig count peaked at 4530 in 1981 & bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

National rig count rises by 2 to 1,062; Texas gains 3


North Korea's Kim Jong Un may be willing to discuss his country's nuclear arsenal with Pres Trump at the meeting beginning in a few hours.  But that doesn't mean the reclusive regime will curtail or halt existing programs, strategists said.  Nuclear prowess is a crucial component of Pyongyang's identity.  The pariah state has even built monuments at nuclear test sites to memorialize past intercontinental ballistic missile tests.  Still, the isolated country has promised to close its main nuclear test site, its state-run Korean Central News Agency reported in Apr.  The news prompted Trump to declare on Twitter that North Korea had agreed to "denuclearization" even though KCNA's statement did not use that term or express that sentiment.  It's widely believed that the White House & Pyongyang operate on different understandings of the concept of denuclearization, one of the major factors seen complicating negotiations at the Trump-Kim summit.  For the US, the term means North Korea relinquishing nuclear weapons, but Pyongyang may only agree to do so if certain conditions, such as terminating America's military presence in South Korea, are fulfilled.  For some, the latest developments are just another case of history repeating itself.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un is unlikely to give up nukes after Trump summit

This is a day for traders to twiddle their thumbs.  The alternative is speculate & imagine what might happen at the summit in Singapore.  Over the last 9 trading days, the Dow is up 1K.  That's one impressive advance, especially when there has been only limited significant news.  The story on tariffs & intl trade has been ugly & looks to be getting even uglier.  However the Dow is back to where it was 3 months ago.  Hard to believe!  Tomorrow's stock market will react to how the first round of negotiations with North Korea are going & then traders will be speculating about the Jun rate hike by the Fed.  That should make for a very interesting trading day!

Dow Jones Industrials









No comments: