Thursday, June 21, 2018

Markets decline on persisting trade worries

Dow sank 173, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ was off 65.  The MLP index lost 1+ to the 365s & the REIT index fluctuated in the 346sa.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries went higher, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury down 3 basis points to 2.9%.  Oil dribbled lower in the 65s & gold fell 6 to 1268.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil64.85
-0.86-1.3%

GC=FGold  1,267.20
-7.30-0.6%








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Stocks fell as investors gauged increasing trade tensions between the US & China.  A Chinese gov-owned tabloid said that there's a chance China may need to adopt a “hard-line approach” targeting US firms listed on the Dow, if Pres keeps up with his trade threats.  “China does not want a trade war, but if Chinese companies suffer great losses due to Trump's protectionist trade policies, China will have no choice but to fight back in a bid to safeguard the interests of Chinese investors,” the Global Times said.  The Dow opened 0.3% lower & the S&P 500 fell 0.1%.  But tech-heavy NAZ rose 0.2%.  Yesterday US stock indices were mixed, as traders moved to look past concerns of a trade war which have pressured stocks this week.  The Dow fell 42 to 24,657.  The S&P 500 ticked 4 points higher to 2767 & the NaAZ rose 55 to 7781.  In today's trading in Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite ended the day down 1.4% to a 2-year low & Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the day also down 1.4%.  Japan's Nikkei index finished the session higher by 0.6%.  Financial shares may be active, as the Federal Reserve prepares to begin releasing the first round of results from the central bank's annual stress tests.  On the economic agenda, the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected.  If the economy is turning the corner, the idea of an Aug rate increase could be on the table.  In Europe,  London's FTSE was lower by  0.7%, Germany's DAX was lower by 1.1% & France's CAC was off 0.7%.

US stock market opens lower as investors gauge US-China trade tensions

Dow members Boeing (BA), Apple (AAPL) & Nike (NKE) may be targeted by the Chinese as the trade war with the US rages on, according to The Global Times a state-controlled tabloid.  China may need to adopt a “hard-line approach” targeting US firms listed on the Dow, if Pres Trump keeps up with his trade threat antics, the paper reported.  The 30 companies that comprise the weighted Dow are among the world's biggest & storied companies may be some of the first to bear the brunt of China’s countermeasures,” the outlet added.   Trump has been pounding the tariff message all week.  On Mon, Trump threatened to hit $200B of Chinese imports with 10% tariffs, if the country follows through with its retaliation against tariffs on $50B in imports, already announced.  The US & China have been in a tit-for-tat over trade since early May, after they both failed to reach a compromise on Trump's complaints over what he described as unfair Chinese trade practices & a $375B trade deficit with the country.  “China is in full combat mode and prepared to strongly respond to any probable threat or economic assault from Trump,” the Global Times reiterated in its report.

China threatens to go after Dow index giants next in trade war

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in May, short of expectations.  The index was expected increase 0.4% in May.  May's increase marks the 7th month of gains, after jumping 0.4% to 109.4 in Apr.  The measurement is used to forecast global economic trends & keep tabs on the US economy.  The Conference Board, a business research association, determines a composite value based on 10 key metrics, including manufacturers' new orders, stock prices & average weekly unemployment claims, to create the composite value.

Leading indicators up in May, still short of expectations

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that rising tensions in trade negotiations between the US & the rest of the world will help lower trade barriers for American companies.  "The ultimate objective of the president is to reduce tariffs, reduce trade barriers and make an open level playing field for U.S. companies all around the world, whether it's in China or anywhere else. That is the end game that we are seeking," he said.  "In order to get there, we've had to do some other measures."  Trade tensions with China rose to new highs Mon when Pres Trump instructed the US trade representative to identify $200B worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10%.  "So what we have to do is create an environment where it's more painful for these parties that have these huge trade barriers ... got to make it more painful for them to keep those barriers than to get rid of them," Ross added.  The administration put tariffs of 25% steel imports & 10% on aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico & the EU earlier this month.  The US initially gave those allies a reprieve from those duties, but the exemptions expired.

Commerce Secretary Ross: 'The ultimate objective of the president is to reduce tariffs'

Stocks are having a tough time attracting investors with continued trade worries.  No relief is in sight.  The chart below shows the Dow had a good run in May & into Jun, but selling as returned & a test of 24K is approaching (less than 500 away).

Dow Jones Industrials








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