Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Higher markets as US delays tariffs on certain Chinese products

Dow jumped up 372 (below early highs), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 152.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 229s & the REIT index crawled higher in the 396s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil soared 2+ to 57 (more below) & gold pulled back a relatively mild 4 to 1512 on profit taking.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



Pres Trump declared China is giving the US a gift thru the tariffs placed on its goods.  "Through massive devaluation of their currency and pumping vast sums of money into their system, the tens of billions of dollars that the U.S. is receiving is a gift from China," Trump tweeted.  "Prices not up, no inflation. Farmers getting more than China would be spending. Fake News won’t report!"  The Trump administration has levied 25% tariffs on $250B worth of Chinese goods & is preparing to slap a 10% tariff on $300B worth of Chinese goods.  The US has collected $63B from the tariffs thru Jun, which are paid for by the companies who import their goods into the US.  The tweet comes just more than a week after the Chinese yuan went above 7 per $ for the first time in over a decade, prompting the Treasury Dept to name "currency manipulator."

Trump says China giving US a gift in tariff payments

The Hong Kong airport returned to calm as most protesters left the airport early Wed.  Earlier, riot police clashed with pro-democracy protesters, moving into the terminal where the demonstrators had shut down operations at the busy transport hub for 2 straight days.  The Tues night demonstrations involved officers armed with pepper spray & batons confronting the protesters who used luggage carts to barricade entrances to the airport terminal.  Police took several people into a police van waiting at the entrance to the airport's arrivals hall.  Police said they tried to help ambulance officers reach an injured man whom protesters had detained on suspicion of being an undercover agent.  Protesters also detained a 2nd man who they suspected of being an undercover agent.  After emptying out his belongings, they found a blue T-shirt that has been worn by pro-Beijing supporters that they said was evidence he was a spy.  Earlier, authorities were forced to cancel all remaining flights as the city's pro-Beijing leader warned that the protesters had pushed events onto a “path of no return.”  After a brief period when flights were able to take off & land, the airport authority suspended check-in services for departing flights as of 4:30PM.  Departing flights that had completed the process were able to continue to operate.  It said it did not expect arriving flights to be affected, although dozens were already canceled.  The authority advised people not to come to the airport, one of the world's busiest.  More than 200 flights were canceled yesterday & the airport was effectively shut down with no flights taking off or landing.  Passengers have been forced to stay in the city while airlines tried to find other ways to get them to their destinations.

Hong Kong airport returns to calm, after riot police clashed with protesters earlier

Pres Trump said he is delaying some tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of the Christmas season to stem their potential impact on holiday shopping.  The Trump administration announced hours earlier that it would delay until Dec15 some of the tariffs that were originally scheduled to come into effect Sep 1.  “We’re doing this for the Christmas season,” Trump told reporters.  “Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers.”  “So far they’ve had virtually none,” the pres added.  “But just in case they might have an impact on people, what we’ve done is we’ve delayed it, so that they won’t be relevant to the Christmas shopping season.”  The acknowledgement that tariffs could harm holiday sales marks a shift for Trump, a self-described “tariff man” who has long claimed that the taxes on imports help the US while applying pressure on China.  The US trade representative said the delay would apply to a wide variety of goods, including certain electronics such as cellphones, laptops & video games.  A slew of Christmas-related products also appeared on the delay list.  They include decorations for “Christmas festivities, nativity scenes and figures thereof,” as well as Christmas tree lights & ornaments.

Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season

Oil futures rallied, sending US prices up by 4% to their highest finish in almost 2 weeks, following news that the US will delay tariffs on certain Chinese products until Dec, as the 2 nations look to continue discussions on trade, easing fears about a global economic slowdown.  Prices had declined in early dealings on worries over the economic outlook were heightened by ongoing protests in Hong Kong & a possible crackdown by China.  However, today the Trade Representative's office said the US would delay imposing 10% tariffs on certain Chinese products, including cellphones & laptop computers, until Dec15.  The move comes as a USTR spokesman said Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin held discussions with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He & officials would speak again within 2 weeks.  The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep delivery rose $2.17 (4%) to settle at $57.10 a barrel, the highest finish for a front-month contract this month.  The global benchmark, Oct Brent crude added $2.73 (4.7%) to $61.30 a barrel, scoring the biggest one-day percentage rise YTD.  Assets perceived as risky, including stocks & most commodities, had been under pressure early as demonstrators in Hong Kong thronged the city's airport for a 2nd straight day, heightening worries Beijing could respond with a harsh crackdown.  The potential for an intl backlash & the interplay with the US-China trade war had underlined concerns about the outlook for global economic growth.  The news of the tariff delay & further talks between the 2 countries then helped alleviate those economic concerns.

U.S. oil futures settle at a nearly 2-week high on progress in trade talks with China


The delay in new tariffs & more talks with China about trade fueled this rally.  However, fundamental problems have not gone away.  A trade deal with China needs a lot more work, as was the case months ago.  The Hong Kong story is becoming serious.  It is a major port for Chinese goods & a prominent banking center.  Uncertain conditions are very  worrisome.  Early buyer enthusiasm diminished with the Dow finishing 150 below the session high.

Dow Jones Industrials









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