Dow jumpe up 189, advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained a very big 110. The MLP index rebounded 1+ to 231 & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 393s. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were under selling pressure. Oil recovered 1+ to the 52s & gold dropped 13 to 1493 on profit taking.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks scratch back from recent losses
China reported trade data that was better than expected despite mounting economic pressure from elevated US tariffs. The Asian economic giant said its $-denominated exports in Jul rose 3.3% from a year ago while imports fell 5.6% during the same period. The country's overall trade surplus last month was $45.06B, according to customs data. China's trade surplus with the US was $27.97B in Jul, lower than the previous month’s $29.92B. From Jan-Jul, China’s trade surplus with the US has totaled $168.5B. Economists had expected Chinese exports lasts month to fall by 2% from a year ago, & imports to decline by 8.3% compared to the same eriod last year. The country's overall trade surplus in Jul was forecast to be $40B. In Jun, exports from China fell 1.3% year-on-year while imports fell 7.3% over the same period, customs data showed. The trade surplus that month was $50.98. But the trade momentum seen in Jul may not last.
China’s exports unexpectedly rise in July — but more US tariffs may weigh on trade
Farmers are one of the most visible casualties of the U.S.-China trade war, which escalated sharply this week as both sides landed blows that could hold potentially devastating consequences for US agriculture. Yet farmers appear to be sticking by Trump, not just the Rep they largely supported in the 2016 election, but the trade warrior who has put their industries in China's sights. And while they're far from the largest group in Trump's corner, farmers could prove to be a crucial voting bloc in the 2020 election. The Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture's latest producer survey, which was conducted last month & released this week, showed a record-high 78% of farmers said they believe the trade war will ultimately benefit US agriculture. That roughly matches Trump's overall approval rating of 79% among farmers, according to a Farm Pulse survey conducted around the same time. That data was collected before this past week, however, when Trump said he would impose on Sep 1 new 10% tariffs on the remaining $300B in Chinese goods. Trump tweeted the announcement just after the 2 countries had restarted trade talks in Shanghai. He claimed China had broken its promises to buy “large quantities” of US agricultural products & stop selling fentanyl. China swung back on Mon, taking the severe step of canceling all purchases of US agriculture products. That’s no small loss: The US made $9.2B in agricultural exports to China last year according to the Dept of Agriculture, making that country the 5th-largest US agricultural export market.
US-China trade war is hurting farmers, but they’re sticking with Trump
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 52.23 | +1.14 | +2.2% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,506.10 | -13.50 | -0.9% |
Stocks traded higher as global stocks
recovered, helped by better-than-expected Chinese export data & a
steadying of the Chinese currency. Chinese
exports rose 3.3% in Jul from a year earlier, beating an
expected decline of 2%. Chinese imports fell by less than
forecast, despite the US-China trade war. Stocks clawed their way back from steep losses yesterday to close the session little changed in what was a wild day for
equity investors. Traders were worried about a global recession, after several global central banks that cut interest rates. Add to that list, the Philippine central bank also cut interest rates today. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds fell as low as 2.123% overnight, not far from a record low of 2.089% set in 2016. 10-year yields dropped further below 3-month rates, a yield curve inversion that has often predicted a coming recession.
Stocks scratch back from recent losses
China reported trade data that was better than expected despite mounting economic pressure from elevated US tariffs. The Asian economic giant said its $-denominated exports in Jul rose 3.3% from a year ago while imports fell 5.6% during the same period. The country's overall trade surplus last month was $45.06B, according to customs data. China's trade surplus with the US was $27.97B in Jul, lower than the previous month’s $29.92B. From Jan-Jul, China’s trade surplus with the US has totaled $168.5B. Economists had expected Chinese exports lasts month to fall by 2% from a year ago, & imports to decline by 8.3% compared to the same eriod last year. The country's overall trade surplus in Jul was forecast to be $40B. In Jun, exports from China fell 1.3% year-on-year while imports fell 7.3% over the same period, customs data showed. The trade surplus that month was $50.98. But the trade momentum seen in Jul may not last.
China’s exports unexpectedly rise in July — but more US tariffs may weigh on trade
Farmers are one of the most visible casualties of the U.S.-China trade war, which escalated sharply this week as both sides landed blows that could hold potentially devastating consequences for US agriculture. Yet farmers appear to be sticking by Trump, not just the Rep they largely supported in the 2016 election, but the trade warrior who has put their industries in China's sights. And while they're far from the largest group in Trump's corner, farmers could prove to be a crucial voting bloc in the 2020 election. The Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture's latest producer survey, which was conducted last month & released this week, showed a record-high 78% of farmers said they believe the trade war will ultimately benefit US agriculture. That roughly matches Trump's overall approval rating of 79% among farmers, according to a Farm Pulse survey conducted around the same time. That data was collected before this past week, however, when Trump said he would impose on Sep 1 new 10% tariffs on the remaining $300B in Chinese goods. Trump tweeted the announcement just after the 2 countries had restarted trade talks in Shanghai. He claimed China had broken its promises to buy “large quantities” of US agricultural products & stop selling fentanyl. China swung back on Mon, taking the severe step of canceling all purchases of US agriculture products. That’s no small loss: The US made $9.2B in agricultural exports to China last year according to the Dept of Agriculture, making that country the 5th-largest US agricultural export market.
US-China trade war is hurting farmers, but they’re sticking with Trump
The stock market rallied today after the better-than-expected import data from China. The Treasury Dept, with Pres Trump's support, branded China as a currency manipulator this week, a move which
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said stopped China's currency
manipulation in its tracks. But the Wall Street Journal wrote an-op-ed saying Navarro's encouragement of Trump to impose new tariffs on China have caused what they dubbed the "Trump-Navarro trade-policy slowdown." Navarro refuted those claims today. "It's no secret the Wall Street Journal has opposed President Trump's trade policies going back to 2016," Navarro said.
"When the mainstream [Wall Street] Journal starts criticizing President
Trump and myself, that's when we'll worry." He went on to tout how many jobs the administration has created since Trump took office, including the reduction of people on food stamps & in the unemployment line. "This economy is solid as a rock," Navarro said. "President Trump doesn't want a very good economy, he wants a great economy." Navarro said 2 things need to happen to ensure
the economy continues to improve -- both which have nothing to do with
China: the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates & Congress passing
the United States-Mexico-Canada. "Let's
stay focused on what is a bullish, strong economy," Navarro added. "We
just need to move forward. We have a rock-solid economy based on the
four points of the Trump policy compass: it's tax cuts, it's
deregulation, it's cheap energy and a level playing field on trade." But there is a worry the new trade policy will unwind all the economic
improvement the country has seen. However, Navarro says the
administration continues to work with the Chinese to fix their
structural issues to create a fairer trade playing field. He also
bragged about the lack of inflation to speak of in this current economy,
which means there's room to grow with lower interest rates. "We need to cut, not because our economy is weak, but it's because we
want to make a good economy great, " Navarro said. "We have plenty of
room to run. The Fed cannot have interest rates which are [above] the
rest of the world and expect good things to happen."
US ECONOMY 'SOLID AS A ROCK': WHITE HOUSE TRADE ADVISER NAVARRO
There is plenty of excitement in the stock market today as the bulls have taken command. No dramatic news, but nerves have eased & gold was sold. However the Volatility Index is at 17.73, still above the low teens which is common in better times.
Dow Jones Industrials
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