Thursday, August 15, 2019

Markets struggle to rebound after the worst day of 2019

Dow rebounded a meager 45, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ crawled up 10.  The MLP index fluctuated in the depressed 225s & the REIT index bounced back 3+ to the 394s (near this year's record high).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries rose modestly in price.  Oil slid back to the 54s & gold was steady at 1527.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil54.57
 -0.66-1.2%

GC=FGold   1,510.60
 -5.30-0.4%






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China signaled that it plans to take retaliatory countermeasures against the latest round of US tarifss on $300B of Chinese goods.  Beijing called the new 10% levy a violation of accords reached by Trump & Xi Jinping during their June meeting at the G20 summit in Japan, when the leaders of the world's largest economies agreed to a tariff ceasefire.  Earlier this month, the US said it would impose duties on $300B of Chinese goods beginning Sep 1. However, Trump backed off that plan, saying Tues that he was going to delay the implementation of tariffs on a broad set of Chinese goods until Dec 15 in the hopes of getting retailers through the critical holiday shopping season without any need for price hikes.  After the White House announced out the latest action -- & labeled China a currency manipulator -- Beijing responded by halting purchases of agricultural goods.  Despite the climbdown, the State Council Tariff Committee said that China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate.”  It’s unclear what those exact actions might be.  A spokesperson for the China Foreign Ministry sounded less combative, however, in a separate statement.  "We hope the US can work in concert with China to implement the two Presidents' consensus that was reached in Osaka, and to work out a mutually acceptable solution through equal-footed dialogue and consultation with mutual respect," the spokesperson added.  The Trump administration already imposes a 25% tariff on $250B worth of Chinese goods.

China vows to retaliate against new US tariffs

Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is investing heavily in its online operations & upgrading thousands of stores in an attempt to compete with online retailers, & Q2 results show the initiatives continue to have early payoffs.  Q2 EPS topped earnings estimates.  EPS was $1.27 & revenue came in at $130B.  Meanwhile, same-store sales grew 2.8% as online sales increased 37%.  “We’re experimenting with emerging technologies to improve store operations and reduce friction in our customers’ lives. The initiatives we have underway provide extended access to our brand and position the company to earn a greater share of our customers’ wallet over time,” CEO Doug McMillon said.  Despite lingering tensions over increase tariffs on China slated to go into effect on Dec 15, WMT also raised its full-year earnings outlook.  The company now expects EPS to increase for the full fiscal year 2019, with same-store sales expected to rise as much as 3%.  While WMT has worked quickly to scale up its e-commerce operations, it has reportedly come at immense losses.  To compete better, the company is launching a slew of new services, including new InHome Delivery, an offering under which WMT associates will deliver groceries directly into a person's home.  The stock jumped up 4.96.
If you would like to learn more about WMT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Walmart's e-commerce, in-store investments continue to pay off


US consumers spent more at retail stores & restaurants in Jul, a sign that concerns over slower global growth that have roiled financial markets haven't dampened consumer confidence.  The Commerce Dept says retail sales rose a healthy 0.7% last month, after a 0.3% gain in Jun.  Online retailers, grocery stores, clothing retailers & electronics, & appliance stores all reported strong gains.  Consumer spending, the primary driver of the US economy, remains healthy even as other sectors of the economy, such as business investment, have weakened amid growing uncertainty over the US-China trade war.  Job growth is steady, the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, & wages are rising modestly, which bolsters Americans' spending power.  Even department stores reported solid sales increases despite yesterday's anemic earnings report by Macy's (M).

US retail sales rose solidly in July in a sign of consumer optimism

Today's minimal recovery does not impress the bulls.  Retail sales data is encouraging, but trade talks with China are still dead in the water.  Not encouraging.  Investors continue to like gold & Treasuries versus stocks & that sentiment may last for some time.

Dow Jones Industrials








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