Monday, August 19, 2019

Markets rise on renewed optimism about trade talks

Dow jumped up 248, advancers over decliners about 4-1& NAZ gained 99.  The MLP index recouped 2+ to the 231s & the REIT index gained 2+ to 400.  Junk bond funds crawled higher after selling last week & Treasuries ran into more selling.  Oil rose to the 55s & gold retreated 11 to 1512 on profit taking (more below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil55.77
+0.90+1.6%

GC=FGold  1,507.70
-15.90-1.0%






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Stocks jumped higher with the Dow starting with a triple-digit rally to start the week as investors are optimistic about monetary stimulus measures.  China's central bank unveiled interest rate reforms expected to lower corp borrowing costs.  Investors continue to rejigger their read on Pres Trump's trade war & growing worries about slowing economies around the world.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the gov will extend a reprieve given to Huawei Technologies that permits the Chinese firm to buy supplies from US companies so that it can service existing customers.  An additional 50 of its units were being added to a US economic blacklist.  France's CAC 40 gained 1.6%, while Germany's DAX rose 1.5%. Britain's FTSE 100 was up 1.2%.  Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.1% &  the Shanghai Composite added 2.1%.  This comes after the US markets finished last week strong with a Dow gain of 1.2%.  But each index still finished with a 3rd straight weekly decline.  Stocks & other investments had a rollercoaster week, diving into a crater on Wed last week when a fairly reliable warning signal of recession flipped on in the Treasury market.  US crude oil traded higher by 1.5%   Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates to shore up economic growth.

US STOCKS JUMP TO START THE WEEK ON TRADE OPTIMISM


Shareholder value is no longer the main focus of some of America's top business leaders.  The Business Roundtable, a group of CEOs from major US corps, issued a statement with a new definition of the "purpose of a corporation."  The re-imagined idea of a corp drops the age-old notion that corps function first & foremost to serve their shareholders & maximize profits.  Rather, investing in employees, delivering value to customers, dealing ethically with suppliers & supporting outside communities are now at the forefront of American business goals, according to the statement.  "While each of our individual companies serves its own corporate purpose, we share a fundamental commitment to all of our stakeholders," the statement said, which was signed by 181 CEOs.  "We commit to deliver value to all of them, for the future success of our companies, our communities and our country."  "The American dream is alive, but fraying," said Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a Dow stock, chairman of Business Roundtable.  "Major employers are investing in their workers and communities because they know it is the only way to be successful over the long term. These modernized principles reflect the business community's unwavering commitment to continue to push for an economy that serves all Americans," said Dimon.

The CEOs of nearly 200 companies just said shareholder value is no longer their main objective

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Americans growing more uneasy about Trump's handling of the economy, which has been one of his principal strengths.  That erosion comes in tandem with rising public support for free trade as the Trump administration's tariff conflict with China rattles financial markets & business confidence.  By a narrow 49%-46% margin, Americans still approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down from 51%-41% approval in early May & an even more robust 50%-34% in Jul 2018.  At the same time, Americans now say they approve of free trade by 64%-27%, a margin of better than 2-1.  That’s up from 57%-37% early in Trump's presidency & 51%-41% near the end of Pres Obama's tenure.  That more positive assessment was driven most sharply by political independents, who now embrace free trade by a 77%-15% margin; among Dems, the margin is 73%-20%.  But even Trump’s fellow Reps have turned positive toward free trade, 52%-39%, after viewing it more skeptically early in his administration.  Trump's overall approval ticked down slightly in the survey to 43% from 45% in Jul.  That remains within the range of earlier results for a pres whose ratings with a sharply-polarized electorate have stayed remarkably stable.  Public sentiment about Trump's re-election campaign remains similarly stable.  Just 40% of Americans say they plan to vote for him in 2020, up 2 points from last Dec.  The proportion planning to vote against him stayed at 52%.  The survey found modestly increased support for a ban on military-style assault weapons in the wake of recent mass shootings.  A 62% majority now express support for a ban, up from 51% in Jun 2016.  Large majorities also back expanded background checks for gun purchasers, “red flag” laws to identify dangerous individuals, & a voluntary program in which the gov would buy back firearms from current owners.  But the poll also showed the limits of the public’s appetite for pressuring Congress to act.  Nearly ½ of Americans, 45%, said they worried the gov will go too far in restricting gun rights, while 50% worry the gov may not go far enough.  Meantime, the survey showed the proportion of Americans who say someone in their household owns a gun has risen to 46%, up from 42% in previous surveys.

Americans overwhelmingly support free trade as concern grows about Trump’s economy

Gold futures lost ground as renewed optimism on the trade front & talk of stimulus by global policy makers dulls investor appetite for havens.  Gold for Dec fell $15.70 (1%) to $1,507 an ounce.  Gold was on track for a 2nd daily decline after ending Thurs at the latest in a string of more-than 6-year highs.  Global equities remained in rebound mode today, with US stocks opening sharply higher after China over the weekend moved to change its interest-rate mechanism in a way that's expected to pave the way to boosting cheap funding for businesses.  A ECB policy maker late last week indicated it was preparing a large stimulus measure that could be unveiled as early as next month, while, on the fiscal side, Germany's finance minister said Berlin could loosen the purse strings if the economy continues to slow.  Gold was boosted last week as rising worries over a global economic slowdown & potential US recession were stoked by a brief inversion of the main measure of the Treasury yield curve, as well as weak data out of Asia & Europe.  Stocks fell sharply in volatile trade on Wed before recouping a chunk of those losses on Thurs & Fri.

Gold under pressure as stock-market rebound dulls haven shine


Central banks around the globe are trying to help & fight negative thinking by some investors.  And there is hope that US-China trade talks can bring a deal.  However, for the time being, today's rally is largely simulated by bargain hunting.  The bulls may have returned from summer vacation, but they still need to show that they have strength to extend this rally.

Dow Jones Industrials








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