Friday, August 2, 2019

Markets decline on trade war anxieties

Dow finished down 98 (well off the lows), decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ dropped 107.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 242s & the REIT index rose 3+ to the 391s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries climbed higher in price.  Oil recovered 1+ to the 55s but posted a weekly loss & gold soared 22 to 1454, yet another long term high.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



White House  economic adviser Larry Kudlow touted the Jul jobs numbers as a “solid report” signaled by an uptick for all wages & salaries accounting for 5.5% year-over-year gains.  The average hourly earnings rose by 8¢ to $27.98 & notable gains occurred in year-over-year average hourly earnings with an increase of 3.2%.  The wage increases were expected to hold steady at 3.1%.  “This is I think an astonishing positive, diversified, rebuilding, growth, prosperity cycle that is touching all Americans,” Kudlow said.  The US economy added 164K jobs in Jul, meeting expectations, according to the Labor Dept statistics.  Unemployment remains steady at a 3.7% rate, holding slightly above a 50-year low.  Kudlow said the biggest beneficiaries & the fastest-growing group in the increase in labor compensation is the bottom 10%.  He added that the savings rate jumping slightly above 8% is an indication that consumer spending is very strong.  “This is not a debt driving expansion at all,” Kudlow added.  “When you have an 8.1 percent savings rate that shows you the fundamental strength of more people working successfully and earning more.”

Larry Kudlow: July jobs report signals robust economy

Pres Trump announced an agreement to boost beef exports to the EU.  Surrounded by trade officials & beef industry representatives at the White House, Trump said signed a deal to “lower trade barriers in Europe and expand market access for American farmers and ranchers.”  Over the course of the deal, annual duty-free US beef exports to the EU are expected to nearly triple to $420M from $150M, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.  “This is a tremendous victory for American farmers, ranchers and of course, European consumers,” the pres said as he unveiled the deal.  The agreement comes as the agriculture industry has taken a hit from Trump’s ongoing trade war with China.  The pres has tried to limit the economic & political damage from the conflict ahead of the 2020 election.  His administration recently announced a $16B aid package for farmers affected by the trade conflict.

Trump announces deal to expand US beef exports in the EU — and jokes about Mercedes, BMW tariffs

US household sentiment ticked slightly higher in Jul, holding at a high level despite trade uncertainties.  The Univ of Mich said its final index of consumer sentiment for Jul was 98.4, up slightly from the Jun reading of 98.2.  The forecast called for a final reading of 98.5.

U.S. Consumers Remained Positive in July


Home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW) has told thousands of workers that their jobs are being eliminated.  The company plans to outsource jobs of maintenance & assembly workers to 3rd-party companies.  The assembly workers put together products such as wheelbarrows & grills.  “We are moving to third-party assemblers and facility services to allow Lowe’s store associates to spend more time on the sales floor serving customers. Associates who were in these positions will be given transition pay and have the opportunity to apply for open roles at Lowe’s,” LOW said.  The company said in a securities filing earlier this year that, as of Feb 1, it had roughly 190K full-time employees & another 110K part-time workers.  The company has added jobs outside of its traditional retail centers.  It announced in Apr that it is opening a new technology center in North Carolina & would hire up to 2K employees there.  Since CEO Marvin Ellison took over in Jul 2018, LOW has been shuttering stores to reduce costs.  The company currently has 1725 stores in the US.  The stock fell 26¢.
If you would like to learn more about LOW, cllick on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LOW?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Lowe’s lays off thousands of workers

Buyers returned to bid up stocks in the PM.  Trump's trade deal with the EU was a positive sign for them.  However US-China trade relations are on the minds of traders & that should dominate thinking for some time.

Dow Jones Industrials









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