Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Markets recover some of yesterday's losses

Dow rebounded 88, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 69.  The MLP index fell another 2+ to the 232 & the REIT index rose 4+ to the 387s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil crawled higher in the 54s & gold went up 5 to 1481, another multi year high.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil54.81
+0.12+0.2%

GC=FGold   1,477.90
+1.40 +0.1%






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Major US equity markets moved to stem yesterday's financial carnage, trading higher  recouping a portion of the prior session's losses.  Stocks were rebounding after the Dow fell 2.9% , notching its biggest one-day percentage drop since Dec.  The bloodbath continued with the S&P 500 shedding 3% & NAZ declined 3.5%.  The stock-market declines, which have extended for 6 straight sessions, began last week after Pres Trump said he would extend tariffs to almost all Chinese imports.  Selling accelerated yesterday after the Chinese yuan dropped beyond the level of 7 to the $.  Trump responded, accusing China of engaging in currency manipulation.  Asian stocks followed Wall Street with losses on today while European markets traded higher after China let its currency sink further & halted purchases of US farm goods, fueling fears about global damage from its trade war.  Markets in Shanghai, Tokyo & Hong Kong closed lower.

US STOCKS CLAW BACK FROM WORST DAY OF 2019


The US is counterpunching China in the latest battle royale that has become the US-China trade war.  The Treasury Dept officially declared China a currency manipulator, after the yuan fell to a more than 10-year low against the $ overnight.  Secretary Steve Mnuchin, with the support of Pres Trump, determined that China is in fact unfairly influencing its currency – allegations that had been made by the president multiple times throughout the day.  “In recent days, China has taken concrete steps to devalue its currency, while maintaining substantial foreign exchange reserves despite active use of such tools in the past,” the Treasury Dept said.  “The context of these actions and the implausibility of China’s market stability rationale confirm that the purpose of China’s currency devaluation is to gain unfair competitive advantage in international trade.”  The Treasury Dept will work with the IMF to try to rectify the “unfair competitive advantage created by China's latest actions.”  Earlier, Trump said China has “always used currency manipulation to steal our businesses and factories, hurt our jobs, depress our workers’ wages and harm our farmers’ prices.”  Trump also said the currency manipulation was a “major violation that would greatly weaken China over time.”  The yuan's movement combined with the administration’s announcement that it plans to impose 10 % tariffs on the remaining $300B worth of Chinese goods coming into the UX next month, sent markets spiraling.

Trump administration designates China a currency manipulator

Pres Trump said  that “massive amounts” of money are pouring into the US from foreign countries, saying the nation is in a “very strong position.”  "Massive amounts of money from China and other parts of the world is pouring into the United States for reasons of safety, investment, and interest rates!” Trump tweeted.  “We are in a very strong position. Companies are also coming to the U.S. in big numbers. A beautiful thing to watch!”  His tweet comes as the ongoing trade war with China escalates.  The Treasury Dept, led by Secretary Steve Mnuchin labeled Beijing a currency manipulator, echoing comments Trump made earlier that day.  “China has always used currency manipulation to steal our businesses and factories, hurt our jobs, depress our workers’ wages and harm our farmers’ prices,” Trump tweeted yesterday.  “Not anymore!”  Trump's statement caused US equity markets to accelerate losses, which had carried over from Fri's trading session.

Trump: China, other nations pouring money into US


Pres Trump pledged to stand by American farmers as trade tensions with China escalate & fears about the US agriculture industry grow.  “As they have learned in the last two years, our great American Farmers know that China will not be able to hurt them in that their President has stood with them and done what no other president would do - And I’ll do it again next year if necessary!” Trump tweeted.  The US agriculture industry has been a centerpiece of the trade spat with China, as the world's 2nd-largest economy is one of the American farm industry's top buyers.  The country announced yesterday that it will suspend the purchases of US agricultural products, a direct response to Trump's announcement last week that the US would impose a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese exports.  “This is a serious violation of the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States,” a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce said, adding that it won’t “rule out import tariffs on newly purchased US agricultural products after August 3.”

US-China trade war: Trump pledges to support American farmers


White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the US holds the upper hand in trade negotiations with China due to the comparative strength of the US economy.  “The Chinese economy is crumbling. It’s just not the powerhouse it was 20 years ago,” Kudlow said.  “Any long chart of Chinese investment” or economic metrics shows “a steady downdraft,′ he added.  “Their GDP, which is probably inflated by several points, is coming in lower and lower.”  China reported that its economy grew 6.2% in Q2, its weakest growth rate for GDP in at least 27 years.  Also, Chinese stocks are broadly dropping: The Shanghai composite index of stocks has fallen over 15% from its high in the past year.  By comparison, the S&P 500 is just 5% below its high in the past year & has climbed nearly 15% in 2019.  Kudlow's comments come as US stocks rebounded after the worst day of 2019, dropping when China retaliated to Pres Trump's announcement that new tariffs would be placed on Chinese goods in Sep.  The trade war escalated to a new level on yesterday but Kudlow said that the US “would like to negotiate” & “make a deal.”  Kudlow said China may hold out on a trade deal, but he insisted that the US can withstand any slowdown to its economy better than the Chinese can.  “I think China is getting hurt significantly, much more than we are,” Kudlow added.  “The American economy is very strong. Theirs is not.”

Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow says China’s economy ‘is crumbling’

Bargain hunters are buying, but not in great strength.  The Dow is down 1.5K from the mid Jul peak & the outlook is glum with all the uncertainties out there.

Dow Jones Industrials








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