Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Markets climb to new records as Powell testifies before Congresss

Dow shot up 127, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 83.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 198s & the REIT index soared 4+ to the  426s (a new record).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries ran into selling.  Oil went back over 50 & gold fell 8 to 1571 as stocks were being purchased.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil50.35
+0.78+1.6%

GC=FGold   1,575.40
 -4.10 -0.3%






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Equities opened higher as voting kicked off in the New Hampshire primary & Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was set for his semiannual testimony before Congress.  The S&P 500 & NAZ were trading in record territory just after the opening bell but the Dow was also higher, although it did not open at a fresh record.  Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee to give his semiannual testimony where he will say the economy is very strong & that the central bank will keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future.  Powell will also say the Fed is monitoring the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.  The latest figures released show the death toll from the cornavirus has risen over 1K, surpassing the total from the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, & more than 43K have been infected globally.  West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 1.7% at $50.40 a barrel & gold was down 0.2% near $1576 an ounce.  Treasurys fell ahead of Powell’s testimony, causing the yield on the 10-year note to climb by 2.9 basis points to 1.576.  Markets were higher across Europe with Germany's DAX leading the way, up 0.8%.  Britain's FTSE & France’s CAC were higher by 0.8% & 0.5%, respectively.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3%.  Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday.
 

Stocks jump to records as T-Mobile-Sprint merger approved, Powell testifies


Oil production from federally-managed lands & waters topped a record 1B barrels last year, US officials said, as shorter permitting times & technological advances helped drive new development.  Critics charge that the gains being made by energy companies come at the expense of the environment, with fewer safeguards to protect the land & wildlife from harm.  The production figure was up more than 13% from 2018.  It includes oil from onshore & offshore parcels & American Indian-owned lands managed by the Interior Dept during fiscal year 2019, which ended Sep 30.  Acting Assistant Secretary of the Interior Casey Hammond said that breaking the billion-barrel threshold marks a major milestone in the administration's drive to increase domestic energy production.  "You have to create an environment where folks want to bid on leases and then go develop them," Hammond said.  "One thing we can do as regulators is give people some assurances we're going to work through the process in a fair and efficient way."  Royalties collected by the gov on oil production increased to $7.5B in 2019, according to Interior officials.  That's up 21% compared to 2018.  Roughly ½ of that money is returned to states where the oil is produced.  The rest goes into the US treasury.  Royalties on oil produced from Indian reservations or Indian-owned land is returned to the tribes or individual owners.  The steep rise in production in recent years follows the advent of a drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," which lets companies extract oil from underground reserves that were once considered out of reach.

Why US oil production just motored across major billion-barrel threshold


The Federal Reserve is “closely monitoring” the coronavirus, its impact on China & the effect that it could have on global economic growth, Chair Jerome Powell said.  In his semiannual testimony before Congress, Powell said the new threat comes just as trade uncertainties have diminished, though the US economy appears “resilient” to global headwinds.  Despite the threat from the virus, he said Fed policy is well positioned after a series of rate cuts in 2019.  “As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate,” he added.  He did, though, express some misgivings about rates being so low, not only with his own Fed but in other central banks around the world.  The Fed last year held a series of public hearings to discuss policy options in the future, in particular how to handle economic downturns.  “This low interest rate environment may limit the ability of central banks to reduce policy interest rates enough to support the economy during a downturn,” he said.  Powell's remarks recapped the Fed's 61-page semiannual report that lawmakers received on Fri.  He said the economy is growing at a “moderate” pace & he noted that the fundamentals supporting household spending are still “solid.”  Markets reacted little to the remarks, which strongly resembled the messages coming from Powell & his fellow officials over the past several months.  Powell also highlighted the strong gains in the labor market.  He pointed to the large number of job openings & said employers are more willing to hire & train workers with fewer skills.  “As a result, the benefits of a strong labor market have become more widely shared,” Powell said.  “People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities are finding new opportunities.”

Powell stresses that Fed is ‘closely monitoring’ coronavirus for hit to China and the world

The number of job openings in the US fell to a 2-year low at the end of 2019, reflecting a slowdown in hiring tied to a softening economy.  Job openings sank to 6.42M in Dec from 6.79M, the Labor Dept said.  It's the 2nd big decline in a row & they declined by more than 1M in the past 12 months.  Just one year earlier, job openings climbed to the highest level on record at 7.63M.  Job openings declined the most in transportation, warehousing, real estate & education,  Very few industries posted more job listings.  A closely followed measure that tracks when workers leave one job for another, known as the quits rate, slipped a notch to 2.5% in the private sector.  The rate hit a 14-year peak of 2.7% last summer.  More workers quite when the economy is good & they think they can find a better or better-paying job.  Fewer quit if they are less certain about the economy.  Job opening have declined sharply in the past year, reflecting a slowdown in hiring, but there's still plenty of work to be found.  The economy added a robust 225K new jobs in Jan to keep the unemployment rate near a 50-year low of 3.6%.  What remains to be seen is whether openings snap back in Jan after unusually big back-to-back declines at the end of 2019.  Perhaps a bigger problem is a shortage of skilled workers given the tight labor market.  Many jobs haven't been filled because companies can't find the right people to fill them.  Whatever the case, the strong labor market is keeping the economy churning ahead.  The economy has been growing for a record 10+ years.

Job openings in the U.S. fall to two-year low


Stocks have gone straight up today & the popular averages advanced to new records.  Powell's testimony is being well received by investors.  Getting less attention than it deserves, NAZ is approaching 10K & the way things are going it could be reached very soon.  Investors are not worried about the spreading of coronavirus, something which is serious & needs to be monitored.

Dow Jones Industrials








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