Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Markets slide after Apple's coronaviurus warning

Dow tumbled 172, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ fell 18.  The MLP index was off 1 to 201 & the REIT index declined to the 433s (still essentially at Fri's record close).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were in demand today.  Oil slid back to the 51s & gold jumped up 13 to 1599.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil51.42
 -0.63-1.2%

GC=FGold   1,592.60
+6.20+0.4%






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Mainland China reported 1886 new virus & 98 more deaths for a total of 1868, following a report that 80% of cases have been mild, prompting guarded optimism from health officials.  The latest figures come after health officials in China published the first details on nearly 45K cases of infection with the coronavirus that originated there, saying more than 80% have been mild & new ones seem to be falling since early this month.  A total of 72K cases have been reported in mainland China, although a spike in recent cases was due to a broader definition in the hardest-hit region based on doctors' diagnoses before laboratory tests were completed.  Yesterday's report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention gives the World Health Organization a "clearer picture of the outbreak, how it’s developing and where it’s headed,” WHO's director-general said.  "It’s too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus added.  China may postpone its annual congress in Mar, its biggest political meeting of the year, to avoid travel while the disease is still spreading.  The standing committee for the National People's Congress will meet Feb 24 to deliberate on a postponement of the meeting due to start Mar 5.  The new disease, called COVID-19, first emerged in Dec in Wuhan & has spread to more than 2 dozen other countries.  The new study reports on 45K cases confirmed in China as of Feb 11.  The virus caused severe symptoms such as pneumonia in 14% of them & critical illness in 5%.  The fatality rate for these confirmed cases is 2.3% — 2.8% for males versus 1.7% for females.  That's lower than for SARS & MERS, which are caused by 2 similar viruses, but COVID-19 ultimately could prove more deadly if it spreads to far more people than the others did.  Ordinary flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% yet kills hundreds of thousands because it infects Ms each year.

China reports 1,886 new virus cases, death toll up by 98


Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported Q4 profit & revenue that fell short of estimates, sending shares lower.The retailer had EPS of $1.45 as revenue rose 2.1% year over year to $141.7B, falling short of estimates.  Adjusted EPS was $1.38, missing the $1.43 expectations.  Disruption in Chile & a legal issue curbed profits.  For the full year, profit was $14.88B on revenue of $524B.  "Sales leading up to Christmas in our U.S. stores were a little softer than expected," CFO Brett Biggs said.  "We understand the factors that affected our results and are developing plans to address them."  For the full year, profit was $14.88B on revenue of $524B.  "Sales leading up to Christmas in our U.S. stores were a little softer than expected," CFO Brett Biggs said.  "We understand the factors that affected our results and are developing plans to address them."  Comparable sales at US stores rose 6% when smoothed over 2 years, amid continued strength in its food & consumables business.  US net sales were $92.3B, outpacing the $90.5B estimate.  Meanwhile, US e-commerce sales were up 37% as both its Net Promoter Score & Customer Value Index improved.  Sam's Club comparable sales grew 0.7% as lower tobacco sales were a 310 basis-point drag & intl net sales rose 2.8 percent on a constant currency basis amid strength in Mexico, China & India.  WMT raised its annual div to $2.16, up from $2.12.  The company predicts EPS of $5-5.15 in the current budget year & net sales growth of about 3%.  US e-Commerce net sales growth will be about 3%.  The stock went up 1.36.
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Walmart digital sales to lead growth after lackluster year-end


Apple (AAPL), a Dow stock, slid ahead of today's opening bell after the iPhone-maker warned that fallout from the coronavirus will crimp quarterly sales.  The uncertain outlook pressured suppliers in Asia & Europe & illustrated the wide-ranging economic fallout from the outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, and has sickened at least 72K in the country while killing 1868.  The gov has locked down more than 60M people to curb the spread of the disease, & businesses from amusement parks to casinos, airlines & luxury retailers have taken hits.  “Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated,” AAPL said.  “As a result, we do not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter.”  The iPhone maker previously predicted sales of $63-67B from Jan-Mar, its fiscal Q2.  The range was wider than usual due to uncertainty related to the coronavirus outbreak.  AAPL, which did not provide updated guidance, said both iPhone supply & consumer demand have been temporarily impacted by the outbreak.  Foxconn, which produces about ½ of China's smartphone exports, including the iPhone, has reportedly restarted 10% of its operations but has pushed back against reports that it would return to 50% capacity before the end of Feb.  The stock sank 6.71.
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Apple shares swoon after coronavirus warning


Investors are nervous after the AAPL warnings.  Those guys released the news last night so there would be time to digest it.  The bulls feel somewhat relieved that Dow is hanging in there in spite of all the uncertainty surrounding the virus outbreak.  Meanwhile the Volatility index (VIX) rose 1+ to 15, still moderate relative to all that is going on.  But demand for gold continues to be strong.

Dow Jones Industrials








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