Thursday, February 6, 2020

Mixed markets after China cuts tariffs on US goods

Dow went up 11, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ gained 32. The MLP index fell back 1+ to the 205s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 417s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries eased lower.  Oil was pennies, nearing 51, & gold added 5 to 1568.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil50.47
 -0.28- 0.6%

GC=FGold   1,568.70
+5.90+0.4%






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Stocks opened in record territory following the Senate's acquittal of Pres Trump & China announcing plans to lower tariffs on US-made goods.  The S&P 500 & Dow were trading in record territory while the NAZ was just below its own peak.  Trump was acquitted on both articles of impeachment yestertday, in a vote that was mostly along party lines.  Early today, Beijing announced it will be reducing tariffs on $75B of US imports in response to the US taking similar action.  The tariffs reductions were part of the phase one trade deal that was announced last month.  Also, China's National Health Commission said more than 28K have been sickened & 563 killed by the coronavirus outbreak.  Gold was up 0.5% at $1570 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil little changed at $50.75 a barrel after Russia rejected OPEC members' attempts to cut supply in response to the coronavirus outbreak.  Treasuries edged up, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down 1 basis point to 1.639%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE, Germany's DAX & France's CAC were all up 0.7%.  Markets surged across Asia with Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2.6%, Japan's Nikkei higher by 2.4% & China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.7% .

Stocks spike to record highs at open after Trump acquittal, China tariff cut


The US expects China to be able to meet its commitments under the "phase one" trade deal, despite a coronavirus that has killed hundreds & closed stores and factories in East Asia, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  "Based on our current projections of the virus, we're not worried about that," Mnuchin said.  "But let me again say we're monitoring the virus carefully. We'll have a much better idea over the next two weeks. ... But based on current information, I don't expect there will be any issues in them fulfilling their commitments."  Hours earlier, China announced it would cut in ½ tariffs that the country levied in 2019 against 1717 US goods as part of the "phase one" agreement.  Mnuchin said the move is a "big step in the right direction."  "This is part of China implementing 'phase one,' which is our big focus at this point," he added.  Pres Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said exports in the "phase one" trade deal with China will be slowed downbecause of the coronavirus yesterday.  "It is true the 'phase one' trade deal, the export boom from that trade deal, will take longer because of the Chinese virus," Kudlow added.  "On the other hand, the North American trade deal, USMCA, is going to unlock tremendous investment ... Manufacturers will benefit."  Chinese Ambassador Huang Ping responded to the comments yesterday, saying he hopes the virus will not affect the trade deal.  Huang said he did not know if China would use a clause about unforeseeable events in the trade deal to help the country meet its commitments.

Mnuchin 'not worried' about coronavirus derailing China's trade commitments


China finished building a 2nd new hospital to isolate & treat patients of a virus that has killed more than 560 & continues to spread, disrupting travel & people's lives & fueling economic fears.  A first group of patients was expected to start testing a new antiviral drug, as China also moved people with milder symptoms into makeshift hospitals at sports centers, exhibition halls & other public spaces.  The health care system in the central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak was first detected in Dec, has been overwhelmed with the thousands of ill patients.  A new, 1500-bed hospital specially built for virus patients opened days after a 1K-bed hospital with prefabricated wards & isolation rooms began taking patients.  Other treatment centers had tight rows of simple cots lining cavernous rooms.  And Wuhan had another 132 quarantine sites with more than 12,500 beds, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.  Chinese health authorities reported 563 deaths & another sharp jump in the number of confirmed cases to 28,018.  Outside mainland China, at least 260 cases have been confirmed, including two deaths in Hong Kong & the Philippines.  Hospital workers in Hong Kong demanding a shutdown of the border with the mainland were on strike for a 4th day. Hong Kong's leader Carrie Lam announced a 14-day quarantine of all travelers entering Hong Kong from the mainland starting Sat, but the gov has refused to seal the border entirely.  A Hong Kong medical union warned that its 20K members could resign en masse if the city's Hospital Authority refuses to hold a dialogue with them over their demands.  It estimated 7K were on strike & said those who were working were worried about their safety.  The outbreak of the new type of coronavirus has also ensnared 2 cruise ships, with the passengers & crew now quarantined on the docked vessels in Hong Kong & Japan.  10 passengers confirmed to have the virus were escorted off the Diamond Princess at a port near Tokyo, after 10 others were taken off the previous day.  The group taken to hospitals today are mostly passengers in their 60s & 70s, 4 of them Japanese, 2 Americans, 2 Canadians, one New Zealander & one Taiwanese. Tests are still pending on others on board who had symptoms or had contact with infected people.  More than 3K passengers & crew on the Hong Kong ship, the World Dream, were being screened after 3 passengers on a previous voyage were diagnosed with the virus.  Hong Kong authorities also said they were trying to track down people who had been on the ship's recent trips.  Xinhua said clinical trials for the antiviral drug Remdesivir have been approved & the first group of patients are expected to start taking the drug on today.

China opens new hospitals in bid to contain devastating coronavirus, death toll climbs


Global stocks will likely continue to rally as people realize the coronavirus outbreak is not likely to cause long-term effects on the markets, China Beige Book chief economist Derek Scissors said.  “This isn’t a natural disaster that destroys capital stock,” he added.  “As long as people recover fully, it’s not going to affect productivity.”  China is facing a short-term GDP drag & companies with intl stakes will face some earnings hits, but long-term growth should stay stable, added Scissors, whose China Beige Book firm is an independent provider of Chinese economic data.  “The trajectory of China’s growth of demand for U.S. products in China, of Chinese supply in the global supply chain, that’s all the same it was,” said Scissors, also a resident scholar at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute think-tank.  “So, if you want to trade really short term, then fine, you’ll have a short-term earnings hit. Looking a year out, those companies should be in the same kind of financial position as they were six months ago.”  The Shenzhen surged nearly 3% while the Shanghai index gained 1.7%.  On Mon, Chinese stocks plunged on the first trading day there since the extended Lunar New Year holiday.  Investors in China got their first chance to react to the widening the coronavirus outbreak.  Over the past few weeks, American companies with operations in China have issued warnings to investors as the fast-spreading virus hits demand.  Health officials around the world are also scrambling to stop the spread of the new virus, which was first discovered Dec 31 in the Chinese city of Wuhan.  China's National Health Commission yesterday raised its confirmed coronavirus cases in the country to 28K.  The death toll rose to 563, with one additional fatality in the Philippines & one in Hong Kong.  The World Health Organization said there's been more than 150 coronavirus cases in about 2 dozen countries outside of China & declared the virus a global health emergency.

China Beige Book: Global stock rally to continue, coronavirus short-term concern

Stocks are digesting recent gains.  The Dow is up 1K this week following a dreary Jan.  China's cutting tariffs is a good start on improving trade relations with the US.  However the spreading coronavirus is a major headache for investors going forward.  Meanwhile the popular averages are around record values, heartwarming for the bulls.

Dow Jones Industrials








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