Thursday, February 27, 2020

Markets resume their decline after a failed midday rally bounce

Dow tumbled 1191 after a midday bargain hunting buying spree ended & sellers took command of the the market, decliners over advancers almost 6-1 & NAZ sank another 414.  A week ago NAZ was closing in on 10K, but now it's below 8.6K.  The MLP index dropped 6+ to the 172s (above session lows) & the REIT index plunged an enormous 17 to the 396s (a sector that has been in demand for the last year).  Junk bond funds continued to be sold & Treasuries were slightly lower in price, although yields closed above session lows.  Oil dropped 2 to the 46s & gold  was off 1 to 1641 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Tim Cook, Apple CEO (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, said that he is "optimistic" about China managing the coronavirus, which has slowed production at the tech giant's suppliers.  "It feels to me that China is getting the coronavirus under control," Cook said.  "You look at the numbers, they're coming down day by day by day. And so I'm very optimistic there."  He stressed that iPhone gets parts from "everywhere in the world," including China, which has seen 2744 deaths among 78K cases, mostly in the central province of Hubei.  "When you look at the parts that are done in China, we have reopened factories, so the factories were able to work through the conditions to open, they're reopening," Cook said.  "They're also in ramp. So I think of this as sort of the third phase in getting back to normal, and we're in phase three of the ramp mode."  AAPL said last week it will likely fall short of its revenue guidance in Q2 due to the ongoing impact of coronavirus on its operations in China.  "Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated," the company added.  Cook was in his home state of Alabama to help launch an educational initiative to bring coding opportunities to underserved communities, in a partnership with Birmingham City Schools.  It's part of the tech giant's Community Education Initiative, which is an extension of AAPL's ConnectEd education program, which started in 2014.  The initiative is active in cities like Austin, Houston, Boise, Columbus, Chicago and Nashville.  The stock lost 19+ (7%).
If you would like to learn more about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Apple CEO Tim Cook says China 'getting coronavirus under control'


Gold futures gave up earlier gains to finish lower for a 3rd consecutive session, as US bond yields traded above the day's lows.  The rise in bond yields helped offset support for the metal even as worries about the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic outside of China continued to spark selling in global equity markets.  Gold for Apr was off a smidgen at $1642 an ounce.  Prices also fell on Tues & Wed, after settling at a 7-year high on Mon.  A new coronavirus case was confirmed in Northern California, the first in the US by someone who hasn't traveled to infected areas or been in known contact with anyone who has, raising the worrisome prospect that the virus is spreading by other means.

Gold gives up gains to finish lower for a third straight session

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with solid labor market conditions.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8K to a seasonally adjusted 219K last week, the Labor Dept said. The forecast called for claims increasing to 212.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, was little changed at 210K.  Sustained labor market strength suggests the longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, remains on track.  However, investors have been rattled by fears that the coronavirus, which has killed more than 2K, mostly in China, & spread to other countries, would undercut global & US economic growth.  Risky assets such as stocks have been sold off in favor of safe-haven gov bonds.  Money markets have raised their bets on the prospect of more Federal Reserve cuts.  The central bank cut rates 3 times last year & has signaled its intention to keep monetary policy on hold at least this year.  The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 9K to 1.72M last week.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5K to 1.73M.  The continuing claims data covered the period during which the gov surveyed households for Feb's unemployment rate.  The 4-week average of continuing claims fell between the Jan & Feb household survey weeks, suggesting some improvement in the unemployment rate.

Weekly jobless claims rise more than expected


Oil prices continued their steep decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than 5% at the low to $45.88 per barrel, not seen since Jan 2019, as fears of the coronavirus outbreak, & what it could mean for crude demand, continue to batter prices.  After falling more than 5% in early trading, West Texas Intermediate pared some of its losses to settle down $1.64 (3.4%), a level not seen since Jan 2019.  WTI posted its 5th straight session of losses, & tumbled even deeper into bear market territory, currently sitting 29% below its 52-week intraday high level of $66.60, reached last Apr.  Intl benchmark Brent crude fell to $50.97 per barrel, its lowest level since Dec 2018, before paring some of the losses to settle 2.34% lower at $52.18 per barrel.

Oil tumbles deeper into bear market, sinking to lowest level since Jan. 2019

Today was what has become a routine day for stocks this week.  An attempt at bargain hunting did not last.  Sellers returned to drive the Dow down to close at the session low.  The Volatility Index (VIX) remained near 35, triple where it was during the rally time for stocks.  The short term outlook for stocks remains gloomy.  However, long term investors should be looking for value stocks with attractive yields which will be higher with additional declines in stock prices.  Research & patience today will be rewarded in the future.

Dow Jones Industrials








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