Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Markets search for direction and selling returns

Dow dropped 133, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ declined 50.  The MLP index fell 1+ to 190, another multi year low, & the REIT index gave back 1+, falling to the 427s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose in price bringing record low yields.  Oil fell below 51 & gold dropped 10 to 1657 on profit taking.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil51.18
  -0.25-0.5%

GC=FGold   1,653.30
-23.30-1.4%






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Pres Trump lashed had his 2nd & last day of his whirlwind trip to India.  Addressing reporters & business leaders, Trump warned of economic calamity if he loses his reelection race in Nov.  Trump had joked at the beginning of his press conference that he would be “very, very conservative” in his answers to avoid distracting from his “fantastic two days" in the country.  But he quickly launched into attacks, including criticizing Supreme Court Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg & Sonia Sotomayor, the latter for a blistering dissent that was critical of the Trump administration's rush to claim emergencies when asking the Supreme Court to review cases.  “I just don't know how they can not recuse themselves for anything Trump or Trump-related,” he said.  Trump emerged from a pair of meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi citing progress toward a deal but offering no details.  Trump had made clear before the trip that hammering out a long-sought trade deal with India was unlikely during the 2-day trip.  “Our teams have made tremendous progress on a comprehensive trade agreement and I'm optimistic we can reach a deal that will be of great importance to both countries,” Trump told reporters on the 2nd & final day of his whirlwind, first official visit to India.  Trump & Modi briefed reporters about their meetings.  In addition to the claimed progress on trade, Trump announced that India had signed a deal to buy more than $3B of advanced military equipment, including helicopters.  And he continued to shower praise on Modi for the opulent & colorful welcome spread across 3 cities.  “The last two days were amazing in every sense of the word," Trump said as he & Modi briefly addressed reporters after the first of their 2 meetings.  Trump described the trip as “unforgettable,” “extraordinary” & an expression of “love."

Trump 'optimistic' about India trade deal, rips Supreme Court justice at end of trip


China & South Korea reported more cases of coronavirus that has been concentrated in North Asia but is causing global worry as clusters grow in the Middle East & Europe.  China reported 508 new cases & another 71 deaths, 68 of them in the central city of Wuhan, where the epidemic was first detected in Dec.  The updates bring mainland China's totals to 77K cases & 2663 deaths.  South Korea now has the 2nd-most cases in the world with 893 & has had a near 15-fold increase in reported infections in a week, as health workers continue to find batches in the southeastern city of Daegu & nearby areas, where panic has brought towns to an eerie standstill.  Of the 60 new cases reported by South Korea's Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, 49 came from Daegu & the surrounding areas of North Gyeongsang province.  The country also reported its 8th & 9th fatalities from COVID-19, including a man who had links to a hospital in Cheongdo, where a slew of infections has been reported among patients at a mental ward.  Health authorities expected to finish testing some 1300 members of the Daegu branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus who have exhibited symptoms, before expanding the tests.  The church, which has South Korea's biggest cluster of infections, has agreed to provide authorities a list of all of its 200K members nationwide so they could be screened, which could take months.  “It’s a matter of speed and time — we must create a clear turning point within this week (to stem) the increase in confirmed cases,” South Korean Pres Moon Jae-in said during a visit to Daegu City Hall.  He promised “pan-national” support, including active employment of military, police & civilian resources, to combat the outbreak.  South Korea's cases now outnumber those reported by Japan, where the virus infected almost 1/5 of the passengers & crew on a cruise ship.  About 200 South Korean tourists returned home on a chartered flight arranged by Israel, which decided to send them back over virus concerns.  The US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention yesterday advised Americans to “avoid all nonessential travel to South Korea” in its highest travel alert notice.  Japan's Foreign Ministry urged citizens to avoid unessential trips to Daegu & North Gyeongsang province.  Clusters have also emerged in Iran & Italy, & there are concerns the new outbreaks could signal a serious new stage in the global spread of the illness.  Schools were closed in Iran for a 2nd day & daily sanitizing of public buses & the Tehran metro, which is used by some 3M, was begun.

Outbreak worsens in China and South Korea, clusters in Middle East


Pres Trump has maintained a very “hands-on” approach to managing the coronavirus outbreak, including exerting pressure on companies to develop a vaccine soon.  White House Director of Trade & Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro said that the administration is moving as quickly as possible on treatments, including developing a vaccine.  “We’re moving really fast on that already with four companies,” Navarro added.   “I think that we can do this in half the time it usually takes under the president’s leadership.”  As previously reported, one Texas-based company claimed it had completed a vaccine & is working through the testing process.  Navarro also mentioned remdesivir, a drug manufactured by Gilead Sciences (GILD), which may be able to treat the symptoms of the virus.  Navarro reiterated concerns that too much of the US supply chain had been outsourced – & that the White House is focused on bringing that infrastructure back to the US by cultivating domestic production.  Meanwhile, US stocks fell yesterday as more cases of the virus were reported.  South Korea, Italy & Iran all noted an increase in confirmed cases.  There are heightened concerned that the global economy could be affected by supply chain disruptions.   There are 53 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the US.

Trump pressures companies to fast-track coronavirus vaccine: Peter Navarro


The bulls did not return today & selling continues driving stock prices lower.  The spreading corornavirus is weighing on traders' minds & a fix for this huge problem seems far away.  The Volatility Index (VIX) which had been in the mid teens during "the good old days" shot up yesterday & is currently in the 25s.  Investors are not eager to take on risk of buying stocks!

Dow Jones Industrials








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