Friday, May 8, 2020

Higher markets despite a negative jobs report

Dow shot up 347, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ gained 104.  The MLP index added 2+ to 127 & the REIT index rose 6+ to the 328s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil went up to 24 & gold fell 5 to 1720.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil24.66
+1.11+4.7%

GC=FGold   1,725.90
+0.10+0.0%






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US employers cut 20.5M jobs in Apr, a record-shattering number that pushed unemployment to 14.7%, the highest level since the depression, as the coronavirus pandemic triggered an unprecedented economic catastrophe.  The grim Labor Dept report provides one of the most comprehensive looks at the economic damage inflicted by the virus outbreak & subsequent stay-at-home measures mandated by states to curb the spread of COVID-19.  More than a decade of job gains were erased in a single month; the stunning job losses are more than double what the US saw during the last recession.  The forecast called for the report to show that unemployment rose to 16% in Apr & that employers shed 21.8M jobs, essentially erasing all job gains in the past decade.  The paralyzed US economy, & tidal wave of layoffs, pushed the unemployment rate — which sat at a ½-century low of 3.5% in Feb — to the highest level since record-keeping began in 1948.  The previous record was 10.8% in 1982.  The number of job losses is also the biggest on record dating back to 1939.  Previously, the largest one-month job loss number was 1.96M in 1945, at the end of World War II.  A more inclusive measure of what's called underemployment, which counts those not looking for work & individuals who are reduced to part-time hours for economic reasons, hit an all-time high of 22.8%.  As expected, the leisure & hospitality sector bore the biggest brunt of job losses, shedding more than 7.6M jobs in Apr alone, 5.5M that stemmed from eating & drinking establishments.  But few sectors were immune to the pandemic: Education & health services lost 2.5M, while professional & business services, as well as retail, each lost about 2.1M.  Analysts have warned it may take some time for the US economy to return to pre-crisis levels.

Unemployment hits 14.7%, highest since Great Depression, as coronavirus costs 20.5M jobs


In the span of 2 months, the US has lost more than 33M jobs, wiping out all of the gains in the past decade as the coronavirus pandemic forces an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy.  But Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia predicted that jobs will return quickly once states begin to ease stay-at-home measures.  "We lost a lot of jobs all at once," he said.  "But we'll be gaining a lot of jobs all at once, too, as large companies reopen."  Scalia said there could be "a lot" of job losses in the health care sector.  According to a Wed report released by private payroll processing firm ADP, private companies shed a record-breaking 20.2M jobs in Apr -- including nearly 1M in the health-care sector.  "Different segments of the economy undoubtedly are going to be affected differently," Scalia added.  "I'm going to look at health care. There's going to be a lot of job losses in health care. But we know those jobs are all coming back, and more."  Congress has passed 4 massive economic-relief packages totaling nearly $3T to blunt the virus outbreak's toll on American workers & businesses.  Still, other economists have warned that the labor market may be slow to return to pre-crisis levels.  “We’re going to see economic data for the second quarter that’s worse than any data we’ve seen for the economy," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week.  He said that rolling back some social distancing measures could boost economic growth, but added: "It’s unlikely that it would bring us quickly all the way back to pre-crisis levels.”

US economy will regain jobs lost during coronavirus crisis 'all at once,' Labor secretary says


Businesses looking for a quick return to normal are running into a big hitch:  Workers on unemployment benefits are reluctant to give them up.  That's complicating plans to reopen states & get the economy back on track.  For some workers, unemployment benefits are now paying more than their old jobs did.  For others, safety concerns or a lack of child care, as most schools & day-care centers remain closed, are making them hesitant to go back.  That means reopening may not go as quickly or as smoothly as some elected officials & business owners had hoped.  The longer it takes to recover that lost employment, the more extended the economic downturn caused by the pandemic will be.  “That’s going to get in the way of any real recovery,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum & former director of the Congressional Budget Office.  The pressure for businesses to staff back up is especially intense as many have tapped federal loans contingent on paying employees.  The gov's Paycheck Protection Program forgives the loans if companies bring back all workers within 8 weeks of receiving funds that can be used to pay operational expenses such as payroll & rent.  Congress passed a coronavirus stimulus package in Mar that boosted unemployment benefits by $600 a week.  About ½ of all US workers stand to earn more if laid off than they did at jobs before the pandemic, until that increase expires at the end of Jul.

Businesses struggle to lure workers away from unemployment


The ugly jobs report was widely expected & investors are looking past it.  The Dow jumped up at the  opening & has held those gains.  However, it remains not far from 24K where it stayed for the last month without encouraging economic news.  Investors continue to have optimistic thoughts about the stock market.  At the same time, gold has stayed around 1700, near its 2011 highs close to 1900.  Generally investors only support just one of those investments.

Dow Jones Industrials








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