Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Markets struggle as investors follow reopening efforts

Dow rose 48, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ edged up 28.  The MLP index added 1+ to 130 & the REIT index dropped 8+ to 317.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were in demand.  Oil added 1 to 25 & gold jumped up 16 to 1718 (staying near the 1700 recent trend level).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil25.29
  +1.15+4.8%

GC=FGold    1,711.40
+13.40+0.8%






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US consumer prices fell 0.8% in Apr, the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis, with decreases led by a huge drop in gasoline prices & from businesses most affected by the coronavirus shutdowns.  The Labor Dept reported that that core prices, which exclude food & energy, fell 0.4% last month, the largest monthly decline in core prices on records that go back to 1957.  The 0.8% drop in overall prices followed a 0.4% drop in Mar.  Gasoline prices fell 20.6% in Apr & contributed the most to the downward pressure on inflation.  Apparel prices, airline fares & hotel & motel room charges all fell sharply last month.  Over the past 12 months, overall prices are up just 0.3% while core inflation is up 1.4%.  Both measures are well below the 2% target the Federal Reserve seeks to achieve for annual inflation.

US consumer prices plummet to lowest level on record


Pres Trump will not engage in any type of renegotiation of Phase One of the China trade deal after some reports out of Beijing reportedly urged fresh talks and or the possibility of invalidating the current agreement.  "I’m not interested. We signed a deal," Trump said.  "Let's see if they live up to the deal they signed," he added.  Trump reiterated China has "been taking advantage of the United States for many, many years" because his predecessors "allowed that to happen."  On Fri, Pres Trump said he's having "a very hard time with China", particularly on the issue of trade, following a phone call the previous night between US & Chinese trade officials.  China's Vice Premier Liu He, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer discussed economic & trade issues Thurs, but Trump said later that there hasn't been any new progress made.

President Trump 'not interested' in renegotiating Phase One China trade deal


Dr Anthony Fauci warned in testimony before the Senate Health Committee that reopening the economy before certain "checkpoints" set up in the White House's coronavirus recovery plan are met could bring "serious" consequences.  "As I have said many times publicly, what we have worked out is a guideline framework for how to open America again,” he said.  "Depending on the dynamics of an outbreak in a particular region, state, city or area, that would really determine the speed and the pace with which one does reenter or reopen... I get concerned if you have a situation where the dynamics of an outbreak in an area are such that you are not seeing that gradual over 14-day decrease allowing you to go to phase 1," Fauci added.  "If some areas – cities states or what have you – jump over those barriers, checkpoints and prematurely open up without having the capability of being able to respond effectively, and efficiently, my concern is that we will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks."  When asked what could happen if areas do ignore the "checkpoints," Fauci said, "The consequences could be really serious."  The hearing, which features Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases (NIAID), as well as 3 other top administration health officials, is the biggest congressional hearing since the coronavirus crisis began.  Fauci did not rip on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic in his planned remarks, instead emphasizing efforts by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to develop vaccines & other medical means to fight the coronavirus.  "Hopefully our research efforts, together with the other public health efforts, will get us quickly to an end to this terrible ordeal that we are all going through," Fauci said.

Fauci warns of virus 'outbreaks' if states jump 'checkpoints' to reopen


Stocks are meandering, looking for direction.  Reopening is uneven in states that are trying to recover from the lock-down.  At the same time, US-China trade relations are being hit with headwinds.  And this qtr looks to be a dismal one for the economy.  The bulls have hit the pause button, unable to move the Dow away from the 24K trend line in the last month.

Dow Jones Industrials








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