Dow soared 820, advancers over decliners a huge 12-1 & NAZ jumped up 227. The MLP index gained 7+ to the 136s & the REIT index shot up 17+ to 320. Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were heavily sold. Oil gained 3+ to the 33s & gold dropped 16 to 1739.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
After the sharpest one-month drop in the history of the index in Apr, homebuilder sentiment bounced back slightly in May as builders saw a quick rebound in interest from buyers. Confidence in the market for single-family, newly built homes rose 7 points in May to 37, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). Anything above 50 is considered positive, so sentiment remains in negative territory. The index stood at 66 in May 2019 & hit a recent high of 76 in Dec. Sentiment plunged an unprecedented 42 points in April, as the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the economy & job losses soared. Homebuilding continued, deemed an essential business, but buyers pulled back decisively. Now, buyers appear to be shopping again — in person & virtually. Record low mortgage rates are also helping with affordability. “The fact that most states classified housing as an essential business during this crisis helped to keep many residential construction workers on the job, and this is reflected in our latest builder survey,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon. “At the same time, builders are showing flexibility in this new business environment by making sure buyers have the knowledge and access to the homes they are seeking through innovative measures such as social media, virtual tours and online closings.” All components of the index rose in May but remain in negative territory. Current sales conditions increased 6 points to 42, sales expectations in the next 6 months jumped 10 points to 46 & buyer traffic rose 8 points to 21. “As many states and localities across the nation lift stay-at-home orders and more furloughed workers return to their jobs, we expect this demand will strengthen,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “However, high unemployment and supply-side challenges including builder loan access and building material availability are near-term limiting factors.” The CEOs of several major builders, on recent quarterly earnings calls, have reported an increase in buyer demand, especially from more serious buyers. Mortgage applications to purchase a home have been rising for 4 straight weeks & the record-low supply of existing homes for sale continues to benefit the builders. While there is no specific data yet, real estate agents & builders say they are seeing higher demand from apartment-dwellers in major cities looking to move out to larger homes in the suburbs. Stay-at-home orders have clearly strengthened the desire for more space.
Homebuilder sentiment bounces back in May, after record plunge in April
The coronavirus pandemic created a huge crash in new job hiring in Mar & early Apr, but the worst may be behind us, according to data gathered by LinkedIn. The professional social network keeps track of a hiring rate that shows the number of people who have been hired in a region per day versus a year earlier. The metric is calculated on a 7-day rolling basis & is based on changes in user profiles. LinkedIn's data shows that the hiring rate in the US steadily fell throughout Mar as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic before beginning to plateau in mid-Apr, LinkedIn chief economist Karin Kimbrough said. The hiring rate in the US on Mar 3 was up 25% from a year earlier, but began falling the next day. By Apr 15, the hiring rate was down nearly 38% from the previous year. Since then, the hiring rate has remained relatively stable on a year-to-year basis. The most recent data shows that the hiring rate in the US on May 8 was down nearly 34% year over year. “We are not yet seeing signs of improvement, but what we are thinking is that we may been through the worst of the job losses now,” Kimbrough said. Although the US hiring rate appears to have plateaued, the road to recovery will likely be long & slow, Kimbrough said. Other regions that were hit earlier by the coronavirus, like China & France, have already begun a recovery in hiring rates, but progress is slow. “We’re seeing gradual improvement from China,” Kimbrough said. “But they haven’t yet returned back to where they were prior to the crises. So if China is any guide for the U.S., then I think it’s going to be an extremely gradual pace of recovery in terms of hiring.” A key reason recovery takes long is because many companies are taking the time to retool their strategies & reconfigure their supply chains first before turning their attention to what type of positions they will want to add once they resume hiring, Kimbrough said. “Hiring is going to take a back seat to figuring out a business strategy,” Kimbrough added.
LinkedIn data shows U.S. job hiring may have hit bottom in mid-April
Mon marks a new beginning for droves of US communities that are loosening restrictions meant to minimize the spread of Covid-19. At least 14 states are easing lockdown restrictions, including Florida, which will allow gyms & fitness centers to reopen at 50% capacity & restaurants & retailers to increase their volume to 50%. In Maine, restaurants in various counties are allowed to reopen with added safety precautions including physically distancing customers, ensuring employees follow enhanced hygiene & sanitation practices, & controlling customer flow thr reservations, according to Gov Janet Mills. At the same time remote campsites as well as sporting camps, are permitted to reopen with public health safeguards in place for the aforementioned counties. In Minnesota, "non-critical" businesses like retail stores & main street businesses are allowed to reopen as long as they have a social distancing plan in place & operate at 50% capacity, according to Gov Tiim Walz. This means that malls within the "Bread and Butter State" can also reopen their doors if they feel ready. Mall of America, the biggest shopping mall in the US, announced it won't be opening its doors until Jun 1. Mon also marks the first day that contact service providers, fitness & exercise centers, commercial gyms, & public or commercial pools across South Carolina will be able to open in a limited capacity, according to Gov Henry McMaster. Close contact service providers include barber shops, hair salons, waxing salons, threading salons, nail salons & spas, body-art facilities & tattoo services, tanning salons, massage-therapy establishments & massage services. Group exercise facilities such as yoga studios & barre classes will also be allowed to reopen. "We have an opportunity to set an example for the rest of the world by reinvigorating our economy while staying safe, but we can only do that if South Carolinians continue to follow the advice and recommendations of our public health experts," McMaster added. Automakers Ford (F), General Motors (GM) & Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) also reopened vehicle assembly plants at limited capacity. The industry employs about 1M & makes up 6% of economic activity. While Pres Trump & many Reps press to reopen the economy, some fear reopening too soon could cause the coronavirus to flare up again, forcing reopened businesses to shut down again.
The bulls came out in force at the opening & never looked back. Reopening efforts in several states were encouraging for investors. Hopes for a new vaccine are also running high, although generally getting final approval takes more than 1 year. The Dow is trading at the high part of its trading range in the last 2 months, something the bulls like to see after what the Dow has gone thru. Meanwhile gold remains popular for negative thinking investors.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 32.52 | +3.09 | +10.5% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,745.70 | -10.60 | -0.6% |
After the sharpest one-month drop in the history of the index in Apr, homebuilder sentiment bounced back slightly in May as builders saw a quick rebound in interest from buyers. Confidence in the market for single-family, newly built homes rose 7 points in May to 37, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). Anything above 50 is considered positive, so sentiment remains in negative territory. The index stood at 66 in May 2019 & hit a recent high of 76 in Dec. Sentiment plunged an unprecedented 42 points in April, as the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the economy & job losses soared. Homebuilding continued, deemed an essential business, but buyers pulled back decisively. Now, buyers appear to be shopping again — in person & virtually. Record low mortgage rates are also helping with affordability. “The fact that most states classified housing as an essential business during this crisis helped to keep many residential construction workers on the job, and this is reflected in our latest builder survey,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon. “At the same time, builders are showing flexibility in this new business environment by making sure buyers have the knowledge and access to the homes they are seeking through innovative measures such as social media, virtual tours and online closings.” All components of the index rose in May but remain in negative territory. Current sales conditions increased 6 points to 42, sales expectations in the next 6 months jumped 10 points to 46 & buyer traffic rose 8 points to 21. “As many states and localities across the nation lift stay-at-home orders and more furloughed workers return to their jobs, we expect this demand will strengthen,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “However, high unemployment and supply-side challenges including builder loan access and building material availability are near-term limiting factors.” The CEOs of several major builders, on recent quarterly earnings calls, have reported an increase in buyer demand, especially from more serious buyers. Mortgage applications to purchase a home have been rising for 4 straight weeks & the record-low supply of existing homes for sale continues to benefit the builders. While there is no specific data yet, real estate agents & builders say they are seeing higher demand from apartment-dwellers in major cities looking to move out to larger homes in the suburbs. Stay-at-home orders have clearly strengthened the desire for more space.
Homebuilder sentiment bounces back in May, after record plunge in April
The coronavirus pandemic created a huge crash in new job hiring in Mar & early Apr, but the worst may be behind us, according to data gathered by LinkedIn. The professional social network keeps track of a hiring rate that shows the number of people who have been hired in a region per day versus a year earlier. The metric is calculated on a 7-day rolling basis & is based on changes in user profiles. LinkedIn's data shows that the hiring rate in the US steadily fell throughout Mar as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic before beginning to plateau in mid-Apr, LinkedIn chief economist Karin Kimbrough said. The hiring rate in the US on Mar 3 was up 25% from a year earlier, but began falling the next day. By Apr 15, the hiring rate was down nearly 38% from the previous year. Since then, the hiring rate has remained relatively stable on a year-to-year basis. The most recent data shows that the hiring rate in the US on May 8 was down nearly 34% year over year. “We are not yet seeing signs of improvement, but what we are thinking is that we may been through the worst of the job losses now,” Kimbrough said. Although the US hiring rate appears to have plateaued, the road to recovery will likely be long & slow, Kimbrough said. Other regions that were hit earlier by the coronavirus, like China & France, have already begun a recovery in hiring rates, but progress is slow. “We’re seeing gradual improvement from China,” Kimbrough said. “But they haven’t yet returned back to where they were prior to the crises. So if China is any guide for the U.S., then I think it’s going to be an extremely gradual pace of recovery in terms of hiring.” A key reason recovery takes long is because many companies are taking the time to retool their strategies & reconfigure their supply chains first before turning their attention to what type of positions they will want to add once they resume hiring, Kimbrough said. “Hiring is going to take a back seat to figuring out a business strategy,” Kimbrough added.
LinkedIn data shows U.S. job hiring may have hit bottom in mid-April
Mon marks a new beginning for droves of US communities that are loosening restrictions meant to minimize the spread of Covid-19. At least 14 states are easing lockdown restrictions, including Florida, which will allow gyms & fitness centers to reopen at 50% capacity & restaurants & retailers to increase their volume to 50%. In Maine, restaurants in various counties are allowed to reopen with added safety precautions including physically distancing customers, ensuring employees follow enhanced hygiene & sanitation practices, & controlling customer flow thr reservations, according to Gov Janet Mills. At the same time remote campsites as well as sporting camps, are permitted to reopen with public health safeguards in place for the aforementioned counties. In Minnesota, "non-critical" businesses like retail stores & main street businesses are allowed to reopen as long as they have a social distancing plan in place & operate at 50% capacity, according to Gov Tiim Walz. This means that malls within the "Bread and Butter State" can also reopen their doors if they feel ready. Mall of America, the biggest shopping mall in the US, announced it won't be opening its doors until Jun 1. Mon also marks the first day that contact service providers, fitness & exercise centers, commercial gyms, & public or commercial pools across South Carolina will be able to open in a limited capacity, according to Gov Henry McMaster. Close contact service providers include barber shops, hair salons, waxing salons, threading salons, nail salons & spas, body-art facilities & tattoo services, tanning salons, massage-therapy establishments & massage services. Group exercise facilities such as yoga studios & barre classes will also be allowed to reopen. "We have an opportunity to set an example for the rest of the world by reinvigorating our economy while staying safe, but we can only do that if South Carolinians continue to follow the advice and recommendations of our public health experts," McMaster added. Automakers Ford (F), General Motors (GM) & Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) also reopened vehicle assembly plants at limited capacity. The industry employs about 1M & makes up 6% of economic activity. While Pres Trump & many Reps press to reopen the economy, some fear reopening too soon could cause the coronavirus to flare up again, forcing reopened businesses to shut down again.
At least 14 more states across US begin loosening coronavirus restrictions
The bulls came out in force at the opening & never looked back. Reopening efforts in several states were encouraging for investors. Hopes for a new vaccine are also running high, although generally getting final approval takes more than 1 year. The Dow is trading at the high part of its trading range in the last 2 months, something the bulls like to see after what the Dow has gone thru. Meanwhile gold remains popular for negative thinking investors.
Dow Jones Industrials
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