Monday, May 4, 2020

Mixed markets as investors weigh US-China relations

Dow crawled up 26 (about 380 above early lows), decliners over. advancers 3-2 & NAZ rose 105.  The MLP index went up 1+ to 130 (around a 2 month high) & the REIT index slid back 1 to 322 (recovering much of the early losses).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were also slightly higher.  Oil went over 20 & gold gained 14 to 1715 (more on both below).

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An analysis prepared by several administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3K each day by early Jun.  The interagency report from the US departments of Homeland Security, & Health & Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the US will see about 200K new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month, according to leakers..  The sobering projections come as Pres Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, & expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses & social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.  But a White House spokesman said, “This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting.”  “This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed,” he said.  “The President’s phased guidelines to open up America again are a scientific driven approach that the top health and infectious disease experts in the federal government agreed with. The health of the American people remains President Trump’s top priority and that will continue as we monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions.”  Trump said yesterday that the US death toll from the pandemic could reach 100K.  But he also said, “I really believe that you can go to parks, you can go to beaches” if “you stay away a certain amount.”  Less than a month earlier, Trump had said that the country will see “substantially” fewer than 100K dead from the disease Federal agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, a part of HHS, use multiple models for projecting the number of cases and deaths the US is likely to experience.  Those projections can change significantly, & some models, such as the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation's model, have been criticized as unreliable.

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 daily by June, internal analysis says

Pres Trump said that he believed that a “mistake” in China was the cause of the spreading coronavirus pandemic, though he did not present any evidence for the claim.  “I think they made a horrible mistake and didn’t want to admit it,” Trump added.  The comments came hours after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that “a significant amount of evidence” suggested that the virus emerged from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan.  “My opinion is they made a mistake. They tried to cover it, they tried to put it out. It’s like a fire,” Trump said.  “You know, it’s really like trying to put out a fire. They couldn’t put out the fire.”  Trump said the gov was putting together a report that will be “very conclusive.”  The nation's top spy agency said Thurs that it had determined that the virus was not man made but was still investigating whether it was caused by “an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”  A Dept of Homeland Security intelligence report dated Fri, however, found that officials in China “intentionally concealed the severity” of the contagion, which reported on the document Sunday.  The report found that the country hid details about coronavirus in order to horde medical supplies.  China has rejected claims that the virus escaped a research center in Wuhan.  Attention has been focused on the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a research center located near where the coronavirus outbreak is thought to have emerged, though scientists have said for weeks that it is extremely unlikely that the virus was created in a lab setting.

Trump says China made a ‘mistake’ and tried to cover up coronavirus outbreak

Gold futures ended higher for a 2nd session in a row, as prices found support from weakness in global stock markets amid fears of an escalation of tensions between the US & China over the global outbreak of COVID-19.  Gold for Jun rose $12 (0.7%) to settle at $1713 an ounce after the yellow metal suffered a loss of about 2% last week.  Prices settled higher on Fri, after posting losses for 5 straight sessions.  The metal has been trading between $1624-1788 an ounce over the past 30-day period.  Higher trading for bullion have been underpinned by concerns about a global recession prompted by the viral outbreak, combined with unprecedented stimulus measures enacted by monetary-policy makers to limit the economic harm from the deadly pathogen.  Meanwhile, a survey of global business activity from IHS Markit, highlighted the economic damage that has been wrought by efforts to halt the spread of the pandemic that has infected more than 3.5M world-wide & claimed nearly 250K lives, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  Apr saw the sharpest fall in economic output & other measures of activity on record for places regions from India to Asia & the US showing similar contraction.  Bullion has gained some altitude today as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo yesterday, ”said he has seen ‘enormous evidence’ that the virus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China; &, Pres Trump said that he believes China “made a horrible mistake and they didn’t want to admit it.”

Gold ends higher for a 2nd session in a row on economic weakness and signs of U.S.-China tensions

Oil futures finished higher, with US prices back above $20 a barrel, supported by recent announcements of voluntary production cuts by US oil firms struggling against a backdrop of weak demand for crude.  Traders also eyed tensions between China & the US over the former's handling of the coronavirus outbreak seen as one catalyst for a downbeat mood in an asset that has already been dogged by oversupply.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun rose 61¢ (3.1%) to finish at $20.39 a barrel after an earlier dip to as low as $18.05 after it logged a 17% weekly rise in NY.  Global benchmark Jul Brent crude rose 76¢ (2.9%) to settle at $27.20 a barrel the after front-month contract prices climbed 6.6% last week.  An agreement between OPEC & its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to reduce output by 9.7M barrels a day in May & Jun officially began on Fri.

Oil prices finish higher, buoyed by output cuts as traders weigh U.S.-China tensions

This was a wild day again for stocks.  Unsettleld conditions in US-China trade relations worried traders.  But buying in the last hour of trading brought the Dow back into the black, although trade between the US & China has becpome a touochy issue as it gets wrapped up with the coronavirus epidemic. The Volatility Index (VIX) has settled back to the mid 30s after rising to the 80s at mid Mar when the virus became a global issue.  In the bullish days last year, it was under the mid teens.  Nervous investors keep buying gold which is not far from the record highs around 1900 reached in 2011.

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